ISW

Russian forces’ momentum from territorial gains around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in late July is likely exhausted, and Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine are likely culminating although very small Russian advances will likely continue. Russian forces seized Novoluhanske and the Vuhlehirska Thermal Power Plant (TPP) southeast of Bakhmut on July 25 and 26, respectively, consolidating Russian control around difficult water features after many weeks of fighting. Russian sources celebrated these gains as a significant military victory without noting that Ukrainian military Ukrainian forces successfully broke contact and withdrew from the area.[1] Russian forces also celebrated the capture of Ukrainian fortifications around the Butivka Coal Mine ventilation shaft southwest of Avdiivka, after Ukrainian forces withdrew from the area on July 30.[2] Russian forces capitalized on these gains to a limited extent and have been attacking toward Bakhmut from the northeast and southeast, and around Avdiivka, but these attacks are now stalling. Russian forces have not made significant territorial gains around Bakhmut or Avdiivka since their advances through Novoluhanske, the power plant, the Butivka Coal Mine, and a few small settlements near those areas.

Key Takeaways

• Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine have likely exhausted the limited momentum they gained at the end of July and are likely culminating. The Russian military has shown a continual inability to translate small tactical gains into operational successes, a failing that will likely prevent Russia from making significant territorial advances in the coming months barring major changes on the battlefield.
• Ukrainian military intelligence reports that Russia and Belarus have reached an “urgent” agreement for Belarus to repair damaged Russian aviation equipment for re-use in Ukraine. This agreement could be part of a Russian effort to use the looser sanctions regime on Belarus to circumvent sectoral sanctions on Russia.
• Russian forces attempted several unsuccessful ground assaults southwest and southeast of Izyum.
• Russian forces launched a ground attack southeast of Siversk and northeast and south of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces made limited gains west of Donetsk City but did not conduct any ground assaults on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border.
• Russian forces attempted unsuccessful ground assaults southwest of Donetsk City and continued attacking settlements northwest and southwest of Avdiivka.
• Russian forces conducted several assaults on the Kherson-Mykolaiv frontline and made partial advances east of Mykolaiv City.
•  Russian forces are likely not training new recruits in discipline, creating an entitled force engaging in disorderly conduct in Russia and illegal conduct in Ukraine.
• Russian occupation authorities intensified filtration measures and abductions in occupied territories ahead of Ukraine’s Independence Day on August 24.

Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces conducted several assaults southwest and southeast of Izyum on August 21, likely in an effort to reverse Ukrainian counterattacks or regain control over Ukraine-liberated territories in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully conducted a reconnaissance-in-force operation in the direction of Pasika-Bohorodychne and launched a failed assault in the direction of Dovhenke-Dolyna, both directions southeast of Izyum.[7] Russian forces also launched an unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force attempt in the direction of Petropillia-Dmytrivka and failed to advance in the directions of Nova Dmytrivka, Dibrivne, and Kranaukhivka (all southwest of Izyum).[8] ISW previously assessed that Ukrainian forces liberated Bohorodychne, Dmytrivka, and Dibrivne, and Russian attacks in these directions may indicate that Russian forces are attempting to regain lost territories and prevent Ukrainian forces from advancing from these liberated positions further into Russian-held territory.

Russian forces launched a ground attack southeast of Siversk but failed to advance towards the settlement on August 21. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance from Berestove to Ivano-Daryivka, approximately 17km and 12km southeast of Siversk, respectively.[9] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces shelled Siversk, Hryhorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, and Ivano-Daryivka.[10]

Russian forces continued to wage battles northeast and south of Bakhmut on August 21. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults on Bakhmutske (about 11km northeast of Bakhmut) and Zaitseve (about 8km southeast of Bakhmut).[11] Russian forces also launched airstrikes near Zaitseve, Bakhmut, and Soledar (approximately 13km northeast of Bakhmut).[12] Geolocated footage published on August 20 showed Ukrainian artillery striking Russian infantry in the southeastern outskirts of Soledar, which likely indicates that Russian forces are still operating in the vicinity of the Knauf Gips Donbas gypsum factory.[13] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Territorial Defense claimed that Ukrainian forces are shelling Zaitseve from their positions southwest of the settlement, after DNR officials previously claimed that Russian forces seized the settlement on August 20.[14] Russian and DNR sources have claimed to control major areas of Zaitseve since August 10, and ISW cannot independently confirm these claims.[15] Geolocated footage also showed fire and smoke reportedly after Ukrainian forces struck an ammunition depot in Horlivka.[16]

Russian forces made limited territorial gains west of Donetsk City and continued attacking settlements northeast and southwest of Avdiivka on August 21. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces were “partially successful” when advancing in the direction of Lozove-Pisky, 12km west and northwest of Donetsk City, respectively.[17] Russian forces also attempted to advance to Nevelske (about 18km due northwest of Donetsk City) but retreated. Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to improve their tactical positions in the direction of Novoselivka Druha-Krasnohorivka (northeast of Avdiivka) and conducted a failed reconnaissance-in-force attempt in the direction of Opytne (about four kilometers southwest of Avdiivka).[18] Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Russian forces consolidated control over Pisky and are currently clearing the settlement of Ukrainian mines.[19] Kadyrov also claimed that Russian forces are continuing to advance with “minimal risk to civilian population and infrastructure,” despite geolocated footage previously showing Russian forces firing TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems at Pisky.[20] The Russian Defense Ministry has also claimed that Russian forces “fully liberated” Pisky on August 13.[21]

Russian forces attempted to advance southwest of Donetsk City and did not conduct offensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border on August 21. Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults on Mariinka (about 24km southwest of Donetsk City) and Pobieda, approximately four kilometers west of Mariinka.[22] Russian forces continued to launch airstrikes on Novomykhailivka and Pavlivka, approximately 30km and 52km southwest of Donetsk City, respectively.[23] Social media footage showed the destruction of civilian infrastructure in Vuhledar (about 49km southwest of Donetsk City) following Russian artillery fire on the settlement.[24]

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground assaults along the Kharkiv City Axis on August 21. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted an airstrike near Staryi Saltiv, approximately 45km northeast of Kharkiv City.[25] Russian forces continued using tank, tube, and rocket artillery to shell Kharkiv City and settlements to the north, northeast, and southeast and conducted aerial reconnaissance near Velyki Prokhody, approximately 28km north of Kharkiv City.[26]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces conducted several assaults on the Mykolaiv-Kherson line on August 21. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces again tried and failed to advance to Tavryiske, about 38km northwest of Kherson City, and to Potomkyne, south of Kryvyi Rih on the T2207 highway.[27] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces made partial advances towards Blahodatne, east of Mykolaiv City.[28] Russian sources made various claims that Russian forces control part or all of Blahodatne.[29] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck industrial and military infrastructure in Mykolaiv City with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles.[30] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted at least seven airstrikes along the line of contact, including near Lozove and Bila Krynytsia, likely targeting the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River.[31] Ukrainian forces shot down three Russian UAVs in unspecified areas of Kherson Oblast.[32] Russian forces continued shelling throughout the Kherson-Mykolaiv line of contact.[33]

Russian forces are using barges to transport equipment across the Dnipro River in occupied Kherson Oblast. Geolocated satellite imagery shows that Russian forces have repaired barges and are using them to transport unknown materials across the Dnipro River close to Kherson City, confirming ISW’s August 17 assessment.[34] Russian forces have had to resort to other methods of maintaining ground lines of communication (GLOCs) across the Dnipro after consistent Ukrainian strikes have successfully rendered unusable both road bridges into western Kherson Oblast. These large barges likely require dedicated dock infrastructure to load and unload on both sides of the Dnipro River, which Ukrainian forces will likely target with further HIMARS strikes.[35]

Russian forces did not attempt any reported ground assaults in Zaporizhia Oblast on August 21. Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Hulyaipole and east of the city near Olhivske and Chervone.[36] The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces struck a Ukrainian ammunition depot in Charivne, southwest of Hulyaipole.[37] Russian forces also targeted Nikopol, Marhanets, Vyshchetarasivka, and Illinka on the right bank of the Dnipro River, Myrivske on the northern outskirts of Kryvyi Rih, and the Zelendolsk and Apostolove hromadas, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight on August 20-21 with heavy MLRS fire.[38] Russian forces continued heavy shelling throughout the line of contact.[39]

BBC

a conference call on Sunday bringing together the UK’s Boris Johnson, US President Joe Biden, his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Following its conclusion, they urged military restraint around the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in southern Ukraine, where renewed fighting has led to fears of disaster worse than that in Chernobyl in 1986. The leaders welcomed a deal – approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday – to allow UN inspectors to visit the plant at a future date. The four leaders also said they had „agreed that support for Ukraine in its defence against Russian aggression would be sustained”.

Al Jazeera

• Russian forces have continued assaults on strategic towns and cities in eastern and southern Ukraine, but have not made major gains as of Saturday, according to the Washington, DC-based Institute for the Study of War.
• A drone struck a building in a “failed” attack near the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Russian-annexed Crimea, according to Moscow-appointed governor Mikhail Razvozhayev. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the incident, which follows a string of explosions at key strategic sites on the peninsula.
• Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Bakhmut in the eastern Donbas region, but have not been able to pass Ukrainian defences there, according to the United Kingdom defence ministry.
• Russia’s defence ministry has accused Ukraine of poisoning its soldiers in the Russian-controlled part of the southeastern region of Zaporizhia in late July. An adviser to Ukraine’s interior ministry said Russian forces may have eaten expired canned meat.
• Ukraine’s top presidential adviser denies Kyiv’s involvement in the death of Darya Dugina, the daughter of ideologue Alexander Dugin, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• Russia’s defence ministry says that sea-based Kalibr missiles destroyed an ammunition depot containing missiles for US-made HIMARS rocket systems and other Western-made anti-aircraft systems in Ukraine’s Odesa region.

The Telegraph

• Russian missiles hit targets near Odesa, Ukrainian officials said. Five Russian Kalibr cruise missiles were fired from the Black Sea at the region overnight, the regional administration spokesperson said, citing information from the southern military command. Two were shot down by Ukrainian air defences and three hit agricultural targets, but there were no casualties. Russia said on Sunday the missiles had destroyed an ammunition depot containing missiles for US-made Himars rockets, while Kyiv said a granary had been hit.
• The daughter of an ultranationalist Russian ideologue and ally of Vladimir Putin was killed in a car bomb on the outskirts of Moscow on Saturday night. Darya Dugina, whose father is the Russian political commentator Alexander Dugin, died when the Toyota Land Cruiser she was driving was ripped apart by a powerful explosion about 12 miles (20km) west of the capital near the village of Bolshiye Vyazemy at about 9.30pm local time (1930 BST), according to investigators.
• A former member of Russia’s Duma has claimed that Russian partisans were allegedly behind the car bomb attack. Ilya Ponomarev, who was expelled for anti-Kremlin activities, alleged the explosion was the work of the National Republican Army, which he claimed was an underground group working inside Russia and dedicated to overthrowing the Putin regime. “This attack opens a new page in Russian resistance to Putinism,” he said.
• Zelenskiy warned Russia against putting Ukrainian soldiers captured during the siege of Mariupol on trial. “If this despicable court takes place, if our people are brought into these settings in violation of all agreements, all international rules, there will be abuse,” he said in a Sunday evening address. “This will be the line beyond which no negotiations are possible.”

Financial Times

The failure to restart peace talks, combined with continued western military support for Ukraine, meant it was impossible to forecast how long the conflict could last, Gatilov said: “And so they [Kyiv and its western supporters] will fight until the last Ukrainian.” Gatilov, who served as deputy foreign minister before being posted to Geneva in 2018, claimed that Moscow and Kyiv had been “very close” to an agreement that could have paused the conflict in negotiations hosted by Turkey in April. People involved in the talks have refuted this.

Surse ruse și separatiste*

*milblogeri ruși și separatiști care citează la rândul lor surse militare și oficiale din Rusia și republicile separatiste. Traducere Google translate, necorectată.

• Rachete maritime de înaltă precizie cu rază lungă de acțiune „Caliber” în zona satului MAYORSKOE din regiunea Odesa au distrus un depozit de muniție cu rachete pentru sistemele de lansare multiplă de rachete americane Haimar și sistemele antiaeriene de producția occidentală.
• Ca urmare a loviturilor de foc asupra pozițiilor batalionului 2 al brigăzii 28 mecanizate din zona așezării NOVOGRIGOROVKA, regiunea Mykolaiv, precum și batalionului 18 al brigăzii 35 marină a Armatei Forțele Ucrainei din regiunea TOKAREVO din regiunea Herson, pierderile iremediabile ale inamicului s-au ridicat la peste o sută de oameni, precum și 7 unități de vehicule blindate și speciale
• În total, de la începutul operațiunii militare speciale au fost distruse: 267 avioane, 148 elicoptere, 1.785 vehicule aeriene fără pilot, 367 sisteme de rachete antiaeriene, 4.359 tancuri și alte vehicule blindate de luptă, 810 vehicule de luptă cu lansare multiplă. sisteme de rachete, 3.323 de tunuri de artilerie de camp și mortar, precum și 4984 de unități de vehicule militare speciale.
• Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog:
• Unități ale trupelor aeriene ruse au stabilit controlul asupra satului Blagodatnoye din vest de Snigirevka, care a fost apărat de unități ale brigăzii 63 a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei.
• În Soledar, soldații Regimentului 6 de cazaci din NM LPR dezvoltă o ofensivă de pe teritoriul uzinei KNAUF-Gypsum adânc în zonele urbane. Artileria forțelor aliate trage în punctele de tragere și rezervele sositoare ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei. Luptele au loc și în satul din apropiere, Bakhmutskoye.
• Unitățile NM din RDP au alungat inamicul din micul sat Dacha la nord de Gorlovka. În timpul ofensivei, forțele aliate au reușit, de asemenea, să stabilească controlul deplin asupra satului Zaitsevo, iar un grup de luptători ucraineni aflați acolo s-a predat.
• Sub Ugledar, comandamentul ucrainean a fost nevoit să transfere rezerve pentru a opri ofensiva forțelor aliate. Ritmul de avansare al Forțelor Armate ale Federației Ruse și al NM al RPD a scăzut, cu toate acestea, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei au fost alungate din pozițiile de lângă Pavlovka și Nikolsky și au trecut la următoarea linie de apărare.