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Război în Ucraina. Update 9 August 2022


Russian forces conducted several ground attacks in the Bakhmut area on August 9. The Ukrainian General Staff acknowledged that Russian forces led a partially successful advance in the direction of Vershyna (13 km southeast of Bakhmut) as well as failed offensive operations toward Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, and Zaitseve

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Ucraina. „Lupta întregului popor”


să accepți să te sacrifici în numele unei idei, apărarea patriei, este una; să fi însă sacrificat de către un altul care crede că este de datoria ta să mori, este cu totul altceva

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Eu și războiul din Ucraina (2)


Am fost întrebat de ce în materialele cuprinse generic sub numele „Războiul din Ucraina. Update” scriu aproape exclusiv despre acțiunile militare ale rușilor. Răspunsul scurt este ”pentru că din punct de vedere militar, doar acțiunile rușilor contează în acest moment.”

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Război în Ucraina. Update 8 August 2022


Russian forces conducted ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk and northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued ground attacks northwest and southwest of Donetsk City.
Russian officials postponed reopening the Antonivskyi Bridge after a Ukrainian strike damaged the bridge and nearby construction equipment.

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George Damian (FB): Lipsa de coerență


Problema este în lipsa de coerență: pe de o parte Kievul a ales să ducă luptele în mediul urban (o decizie corectă din punctul de vedere al eficienței), pe de altă parte tot Kievul reclamă atacarea țintelor civile. Raportul Amnesty International deranjează tocmai pentru că scoate la iveală această ipocrizie.

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Război în Ucraina. Update 7 August 2022


Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest and southeast of Izyum, east of Siversk, and to the east and south of Bakhmut.
Russian forces have likely made incremental gains in settlements on the northwestern and southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City and continued efforts to break Ukrainian defensive lines along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line of contact.
Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance east of Mykolaiv City on August 7.

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Război în Ucraina. Update 6 august


Russian army focuses on breaking through Ukrainian lines in the vicinity of Avdiivka and Pisky at all costs, but so far is unable to advance deeper into Ukrainian controlled territory, and has only minor gains. Russians have more success in the area of Bakhmut, where the troops are approaching the outskirts from the south and east.

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Războiul din Ucraina. Update 5 August


Ukrainian officials confirmed that Russian forces are using Iranian-provided drones in Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground assaults on settlements south of Bakhmut.
Russian and Ukrainian forces exchanged heavy artillery fire in Pisky, suggesting that Russian forces are unlikely to have full control of Pisky despite Russian claims.
Russian forces conducted several limited ground assaults to the north, northwest, and southwest of Donetsk City.
Russian and Ukrainian forces accused each other of firing rounds near the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar, but ISW cannot independently determine which party is responsible for the incident.
Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance on Lozove, Kherson Oblast, likely targeting the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River.

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Războiul din Ucraina. Update 4 August 2022


Ukraine is likely seizing the strategic initiative and forcing Russia to reallocate forces and reprioritize efforts in response to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
Russian forces attempted to advance northwest of Izyum.
Ukrainian forces conducted a series of localized counterattacks between Izyum and Slovyansk and regained positions in a number of settlements.
Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and south of Bakhmut.
Russian troops continued attempts to advance on Pisky and conducted a limited ground attack southwest of Donetsk City.

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Ana Iordănescu (Teze și sinteze): Z cel mult iubit*


v-a lăsat impresia unui Zelensky inofensiv și bonom. Nu este. A „reușit” pierderea unei suprafețe importante din Ucraina și, cel mai probabil, sub conducerea sa, Ucraina va înceta să funcționeze în interiorul granițelelor recunoscute la 24 februarie ,distrugerea a 80% din totalul forțelor militare profesioniste, anihilarea completă a opoziției și confiscarea sediilor acestor partide. Paranteză:pentru naivi, interzicerea oricărei vieți democratice în Ucraina, chiar și mimată,a început în iunie 2021, drept urmare nu are legătură cu războiul

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Război în Ucraina. Update 3 August 2022


Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack northwest of Slovyansk and continued efforts to advance on Bakhmut from the northeast, east, and southeast.
Russian forces are prioritizing frontal assaults on Avdiivka and failed to gain ground in Pisky.
Russian forces are reportedly forming a strike group to prevent Ukrainian counteroffensives in northern Kherson Oblast or counterattack against them.

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Război în Ucraina. Update 2 August


ussian forces conducted unsuccesful offensive operations northeast and northwest of Kharkiv City.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk and east of Siversk.
Russian forces made marginal gains southeast of Bakhmut and continued offensive operations to the northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.
Russian forces made incremental advances around Avdiivka and are continuing attempts to push southwest of Avdiivka.
Russian forces launched two assaults in northern Kherson Oblast and are continuing to redeploy troops to the Southern Axis.

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Război în Ucraina. Update 1 August


Russian forces are transferring elements of the Eastern Military District (EMD) from the Slovyansk area to support defensive positions along the Southern Axis.
Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations north of Slovyansk or around Siversk.
Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground assaults on settlements south and southeast of Bakhmut.
Russian proxy authorities did not claim any territorial gains near Avdiivka as Russian forces launched unsuccessful ground assaults on Avdiivka and Pisky.

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Război în Ucraina. Update 31 Iulie


Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest and northwest of Izyum, consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces may be setting conditions for advances northwest of the current Izyum-Slovyansk line.
Russian forces continued ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk, northeast of Siversk, and to the east and south of Bakhmut.
Russian forces made marginal gains in the Avdiivka area and continued ground attacks towards Avdiivka and Pisky.

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Războiul din Ucraina. Update 30 Iulie


Russian forces conducted ground assaults around Bakhmut and the environs of Donetsk City as well as southwest of Izyum. One assault east of Bakhmut made limited gains.
Russian forces did not conduct ground assaults near Siversk again, suggesting that they are deprioritizing operations in that area.
Satellite imagery showed Russian reinforcements concentrated near the Ukrainian border on the ground line of communication (GLOC) leading toward Izyum.
Ukrainian forces disrupted a Russian ground assault in Kherson Oblast with preemptive artillery strikes.

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Război în Ucraina. Update 29 Iulie


A kinetic event killed and wounded scores of Ukrainian POWs in Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast on July 28. Ukraine and Russia are blaming each other for the attack. Available visual evidence appears to support the Ukrainian claim more than the Russian, but ISW cannot independently assess the nature of the attack or the party responsible for it at this time.
Ground fighting continued north of Kharkiv City with no significant change in control of terrain.
Russian forces attempted a limited ground assault in Kherson Oblast and continued conducting combat operations without creating strike groups along occupied lines

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Război în Ucraina. Update 28 Iulie


Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults northwest of Slovyansk and northeast and southwest of Bakhmut.
Russian forces may be intensifying offensive operations around Avdiivka to reduce Ukrainian strikes in and around Donetsk City.
Russian forces may be setting conditions for renewed offensive operations toward Kharkiv City.
Russian forces attempted a limited ground offensive on the Southern Axis but are likely facing territorial losses in Kherson Oblast.
Russian forces are attempting to preserve their ground lines of communication over the Dnipro River connecting Kherson City to rear areas in eastern Kherson Oblast.

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Război în Ucraina. Update 27 Iulie 2022


Ukrainian forces may have launched a localized counterattack southwest of Izyum.
Russian forces attacked settlements east of Siversk and northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.
Ground fighting is ongoing north of Kharkiv City.
Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivskyi Bridge for the third time in ten days on July 27, likely rendering it unusable.

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Război în Ucraina. Update 26 Iulie 2022


Russian forces gained marginal ground northeast of Bakhmut and are continuing to fight east and south of Bakhmut.

Russian forces conducted a limited attack northwest of Izyum, likely to secure Russian rear areas on the Izyum-Slovyansk line.

Russian forces conducted limited attacks southwest of Donetsk City near the Zaporizhia Oblast border.

Russian forces focused on defending occupied lines and conducted a limited ground assault in northwestern Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian logistics nodes in Kherson Oblast.

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D. Davis: How The Ukraine War Could End: Stalemate Or Russia Captures Kharkiv And Odessa


If scenario two plays out, however, Zelensky’s position will be markedly worse. He will have lost nearly half his country and an irreplaceable majority of his trained and experienced troops. It is possible to mobilize many hundreds of thousands of new troops, but years of experience and training can’t be replicated; it has to be built, and that will take years. The Ukrainian government would be faced with the ugly choice of either trying to continue the fight into 2023 – with the prospect it would continue losing even more territory and men – or seeking a negotiated settlement from a position of weakness.

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D. Davis: The Dark Scenario: Ukraine’s Military Can’t Beat Russia And Collapses


An unemotional assessment of this war would lead to the conclusion that the Ukrainian political leadership should seek the best-negotiated settlement it could get now, while it still has complete control of Kharkiv, Odesa, and most of Donetsk Oblast – and before another significant city is turned to rubble and tens of thousands more of its citizens killed or wounded. But war is not an unemotional endeavor, and Zelensky has to make choices that are anguishing and very much filled with emotion.

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Război în Ucraina. Update 25 Iulie 2022


ISW Russian forces made marginal territorial gains south of Bakhmut on July 25 but are largely suffering from the same fundamental limitations that previously prevented them from rapidly gaining substantial ground during offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast. Geolocated social media footage from July 25 shows that troops of the Wagner Group Private Military Company (PMC) have […]

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Război în Ucraina. Update 24 Iulie


ISW Ukrainian officials are increasingly acknowledging Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast. Kherson Oblast Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated on July 24 that Ukrainian forces are undertaking unspecified counteroffensive actions in Kherson Oblast.[1] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 23 that Ukrainian forces are advancing “step by step” in Kherson Oblast.[2] His statement does not make clear […]

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Război în Ucraina. Update 23 Iulie


Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch, or have already launched, a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast.
Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov indicated that
Russian forces conducted limited reconnaissance operations east of Bakhmut and continued limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk, east of Siversk, and south of Bakhmut.

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Război în Ucraina. Update 22 Iulie


ISW Key Takeaways The United States announced an additional $270 million security package for Ukraine. Ukrainian officials reiterated that they are employing monitoring mechanisms to track and account for the delivery of Western weapons to Ukrainian frontlines. Russian forces conducted ground attacks east of Siversk and to the east and south of Bakhmut. Russian forces […]

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Reuters: Ukraine, Russia set to sign deal


Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said the European Union had proposed relaxing some earlier sanctions to shore up global food security. Moscow hoped this would create conditions for unhindered exports of grain and fertilisers. Diplomats said last week details of the plan included Ukrainian vessels guiding grain ships through mined port waters, with Turkey […]

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Ucraina – poligon de încercare?


O foarte interesantă discuție relatată de către activenews. Deci ministrul apărării ucrainean propune ca Ucraina să devină poligon de încercare pentru armamentul de ultimă generație a NATO. Eu aș avea două chestii de remarcat: din cauza binecunoscutei corupții ucrainene (sau, pur și simplu, în decursul operațiunilor militare) acest armament ultrasofisticat riscă să ajungă pe mâinile […]

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Război în Ucraina. Update 21 Iulie


ISW Key Takeaways The current Russian operational tempo is not markedly different from the pace of Russian offensive operations during the official Russian operational pause, and Russian forces are unlikely to be able to take significant ground in the coming weeks. Russia has likely used as much as 55-60% of its high-precision weaponry reserve. Russian […]

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Războiul din Ucraina. Update 20 Iulie


ISW Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas) Russian forces resumed localized ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border on July 20. The Ukrainian General […]

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Război în Ucraina. Update 19 Iulie


ISW Key Takeaways Calls made by Russian nationalist and pro-war voices for the Kremlin to officially define operations in Ukraine as a war, conduct general mobilization, and pursue expanded territorial goals reached a crescendo on July 19 with some criticizing the Kremlin and others claiming that Putin has been preparing for the “Syrianization” of the […]

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Război în Ucraina. Update 18 Iulie


ISW Key Takeaways The Russian Ministry of Defense’s meeting with the leadership of the Eastern grouping of forces in Ukraine suggests that the Kremlin will not focus on seizing Slovyansk at this stage of the campaign but will instead prioritize attempting to seize Siversk and Bakhmut. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s likely effort to put the […]

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De ce Zelensky ar fi dorit războiul?


Afirmam într-un articol de ieri (aici) că nu numai Putin dorea conflictul cu Ucraina, ci și Zelensky dorea, poate cu aceeași ardoare, un conflict deschis cu Rusia. De aceea a făcut cam totul (nici nu era greu, admit acest lucru) ca Putin să atace. Mai jos argumentarea mea privitor la această ipoteză, argumentare posttă în […]

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Update 17 iulie


ISW Russian forces are continuing a measured return from the operational pause and conducted limited ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on July 17. As ISW has previously noted, the end of the Russian operational pause is unlikely to create a massive new wave of ground assaults across multiple axes of advance despite Russian Defense Minister Sergei […]

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Eu și războiul din Ucraina


În primul rînd de ce ”războiul din Ucraina” și nu ”războiul ruso-ucrainean” (sau altă variantă asemănătoare?) Pentru că eu personal consider că războiul nu se duce între Rusia (puneți ce epitete doriți înainte sau după numele statului agresor) și Ucraina (puneți ce epitete doriți înainte sau după numele statului agresor) ci între Rusia și SUA […]

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