ISW

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted ground attacks across the Eastern Axis but failed to advance northwest of Slovyansk and east of Siversk.
• Russian forces are launching offensive operations around Bakhmut, southwest of Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City.
• Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast.
• The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Ukrainian forces in Nikopol are preparing to conduct provocations at the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, possibly setting information conditions for further shelling of Nikopol or provocations of its own.
• Chechen units are reportedly relocating to Kherson Oblast to police Russian military deserters.
• Russian forces struggle to recruit soldiers even for safe, prestigious jobs.

Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Izyum-Slovyansk line on August 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported for the second consecutive day that Russian forces retreated following an unsuccessful ground assault near Mazanivka (24km northwest of Slovyansk).[9] Russian milblogger Starshe Edy claimed that Russian forces chose to withdraw from Mazanivka into the forest south of the settlement.[10] Starshe Edy noted that Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in heavy artillery battles in the Mazanivka area.

Starshe Edy also claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in “heavy battles” in the forests of the Sviati Hory National Nature Park.[11] Donetsk People‘s Republic (DNR) Deputy Information Minister Daniiil Bezsonov reposted Starshe Edy’s report before promptly deleting it. The Ukrainian General Staff had previously stated that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults in the area of the Sviati Hory National Nature Park (about 20km northeast of Slovyansk) on July 26.[12] The Sviati Hory park is bounded by the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, and ISW previously assessed that fighting could only occur in the area if Russian or Ukrainian forces crossed the Siverskyi Donets River into the territory of the park or from it or if the fighting took place in the general area. [13] If the report by Starshe Edy is true, then it would suggest that Ukrainian forces entered the territory of the Sviati Hory park and are operating on the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. Another Russian milblogger also released a map showing Pryshyb (about 20km northeast of Slovyansk and northwest of the Sviati Hory park) within areas marked as seeing ongoing combat operations, reversing a prior claim of Russian territorial control of the settlement.[14] ISW also reported on footage showing Ukrainian forces freely raising a Ukrainian flag on the right bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in Sviatohirsk, which could indicate that Russian positions might have shifted further east from the area.[15] ISW will continue to monitor the situation around Pryshyb, Sviatohirsk, and the Sviati Hory park as more information becomes available in the open source.

Russian forces continued to shell settlements along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border and targeted areas near Nova Dmytrivka and Dibrovne (both within 28km southwest of Izyum) with incendiary ammunition on August 16.[16] Russian forces also shelled civilian infrastructure in Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.[17] Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line. Footage posted to social media on August 16 shows a destroyed railway bridge near Hrushivka just west of Russian GLOCs in Kupyansk.[18]

Russian forces attempted an assault near Siversk on August 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops conducted an offensive operation in the direction of Ivano-Darivka (15km southeast of Siversk) from the Lysychansk Oil Refinery but retreated after suffering heavy losses.[19] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai described the offensive as „massive.”[20] The Luhansk People’s Republic’s (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed that Russian-led forces surrounded Siversk on three sides but provided no evidence for this claim.[21] Miroshnik could hope that such a major claim will raise the morale of LNR soldiers reportedly unwilling to continue fighting in Donetsk Oblast.[22] Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a precision strike and destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Rodakove, Luhansk Oblast on August 15, but did not officially confirm the strike as of the time of this publication.[23] Russian forces continued shelling along the line of contact.[24]

Russian forces continued to launch offensive operations south, southeast, and northeast of Bakhmut on August 16.[25] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted failed assaults towards Soledar and Bakhmutske, (northeast of Bakhmut) and Mayorsk and Zaitseve (south of Bakhmut). Ukrainian artillery repelled a Russian reconnaissance-in-force attempt near Vershyna (12km southeast of Bakhmut).[26] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed that Russian and proxy forces control most of Soledar’s industrial zone and that fighting is ongoing in Soledar, but there is no evidence that Russian or proxy forces have advanced beyond the Knauf Gips Donbas gypsum factory (southeast of Soledar).[27] Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Soledar and Yakolivka (6km northeast of Soledar). Russian forces heavily shelled Bakhmut and settlements to the north, south, and southeast.[28]

Russian forces conducted offensive operations southwest of Avdiivka on August 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched a ground assault from Staromykhailivka towards Nevelske (approximately 15km southwest of Avdiivka) where hostilities continue as of the time of this publication.[29] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Militia claimed that the DNR 1st Slavic Brigade had made unspecified advances west of Avdiivka.[30] Russian forces conducted an airstrike near Mariinka (approximately 27km southwest of Avdiivka) and continued shelling Avdiivka and settlements in its vicinity.[31]

Russian forces made marginal territorial gains southwest of Donetsk City on August 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted “partially successful” ground assaults towards Novomykhailivka (30km southwest of Donetsk City) where fighting is ongoing as of the time of this publication.[32] Russian forces also conducted airstrikes on Pavlivka, on the T0524 highway to Donetsk City.[33] Donetsk Oblast Military Administration Head Pavlo Kyrylenko stated that Russian forces conducted a missile strike on energy infrastructure and local businesses in Kurakhove, about 40km west of Donetsk City.[34]

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed attacks on the Kharkiv City axis on August 16 but continued heavy shelling. A Russian milblogger published a map expanding claimed Russian territorial control to Odnorobivka (8km from the Russian border, 45km northeast of Kharkiv City) but provided no evidence for this claim.[35] Kharkiv Oblast officials reported Russian missile strikes on five of the nine Kharkiv City districts overnight between August 15 and 16.[36] Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleg Synegubov referred to these strikes as one of the largest Russian shelling efforts against Kharkiv City recently.[37] Russian forces also conducted airstrikes on settlements northeast of Kharkiv City, dropped phosphorous munitions on Ruska Lozova, and continued to target settlements near Kharkiv City with missile, artillery, and tank fire.[38]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces conducted several unsuccessful offensive operations in northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast on August 15 and August 16. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces attempted to advance to Novohryhorivka (approximately 36km northwest of Kherson City) but retreated after failing to improve their tactical positions in the area.[39] Russian forces also unsuccessfully attempted to improve their tactical positions around Bilohirka (near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River) and conduct a reconnaissance-in-force operation in Osokorkivka near the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[40] Russian forces also reportedly launched 14 airstrikes along the line of contact in Kherson Oblast, with most focusing on Ukrainian positions around the Inhulets River bridgehead and northwest of Kherson City.[41] Russian forces continued firing rockets from Uragan and Smerch MLRS systems on settlements in Kryvyi Rih district and Mykolaiv City, respectively.[42]

Russian forces continued to fire on settlements situated on the right bank of Dnipro River from positions in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck Nikopol with 40 Grad rockets and the neighboring settlement of Marhanets with fire from a Pion self-propelled heavy artillery system.[43] ISW previously reported on geolocated footage of a Russian Pion operating roughly 11km from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).[44] The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Ukrainian forces in Nikopol are preparing for large-scale provocations at the ZNPP but provided no evidence.[45] The Russian Defense Ministry could be setting information conditions for further shelling of Nikopol or a provocation of its own.

Military Land

Day summary:

Russian forces intensified the attacks on Donetsk front and tried to advance in multiple directions. Ukrainian defenders repelled most of these attacks, but the enemy had success in some areas and managed to improve its positions. A Russian ammunition depot exploded in occupied Crimea. Ukrainian Special Forces seems to be responsible for the act.

Kharkiv & Chuhuiv direction

• Ukrainian defenders repelled a Russian attack towards Udy north of Kharkiv.

Bakhmut front

• House to house fighting continues in Soledar.
• Russian troops attacked Ukrainian positions at Bakhmutske from two directions – Volodymyrivka and Pokrovske. Ukrainian forces repelled both attacks, but the situation continues to be uncertain.
• The enemy tried to advance towards Kodema and Vershyna from the direction of Semyhirya and nearby powerplant, without success.
• Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack towards Zalizne from the direction of Horlivka.

Slovyansk direction

• Ukrainian forces repulsed a Russian attack towards Mazanivka from the direction of Dovhenke.
• The enemy tried to improve its positions and advance in the vicinity of Dolyna. Ukrainian defenders caught this attempt.
• Russian forces continue to attack Ukrainian positions in the area of Ivano-Darivka and towards Vyimka, but so far without success.
• The enemy also attempted to breakthrough Ukrainian lines towards Vesele. Fighting continues

Donetsk Oblast

• The enemy tried to improve its positions and advance towards Nevelske and Pervomaiske. The attackers did not succeed, but the attack towards Pervomaiske, indicating a bad situation in Pisky.
• However, we still cannot confirm that Russian forces fully captured Pisky. The settlement remains marked as contested until we get a clear visual confirmation.
• Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions near Novomykhailivka from two sides – Slavne and Solodke. The enemy was able to advance closer to the settlement, fighting continues.
• Russian troops attempted to capture Ukrainian positions north of Volodymyrivka from the direction of Solodke, and also tried to advance towards Vodyane from the direction of the mentioned settlement. Both attacks were repelled.
• The defenders repelled yet another attack towards Pavlivka.
• Ukrainian troops discovered and forced to retreat a Russian reconnaissance group in the vicinity of Vremivka.

Kherson front

Russian forces attempted to advance from the direction of Zeleny Hai to Novohryhorivka. The attack was repelled.

Al Jazeera

Vladimir Rogov, the Russia-installed official in the Ukrainian city of Enerhodar, said that in the space of two hours, some 25 heavy artillery strikes from M777 howitzers had landed near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant and residential areas. The Russian-appointed administration blamed Ukrainian forces.

CNN

Valeriy Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, has acknowledged that Russian forces „continue to advance” in Donbas but said the „intense” situation is „fully controlled.” Zaluzhny added that „the enemy continues to advance along the entire front line. At the same time, the enemy carries out approximately 700-800 [actions of] shelling of our positions every day, using from 40 to 60000 pieces of ammunition.”

The Guardian

• There could be more attacks in the “next two or three months” similar to the strikes in Crimea, a key adviser to Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said in an exclusive interview with the Guardian. Mykhailo Podolyak said Ukraine is engaged in a counteroffensive aimed at creating “chaos within Russian forces” by striking at the invaders’ supply lines deep into occupied territories.
• Ukraine has hinted it was behind a series of mysterious and devastating strikes in occupied Crimea that destroyed a key railway junction used for supplying Russian troops and a military airbase. Several explosions on Tuesday appeared to have destroyed a Russian ammunition depot and an electricity substation about 125 miles (200km) from the frontline with Ukrainian forces. Russia blamed saboteurs for orchestrating the series of explosions.

Surse rusești și separatiste*

*sursele sunt în special milblogeri (RYBAR, COLONEL HASAD) care la rândul lor citează surse oficiale ruse; traducere Google, nu foarte corectă

• În dimineața zilei de 16 august, un incendiu a izbucnit pe teritoriul unui amplasament de depozitare temporară a muniției într-o unitate militară de lângă Maiskoye în Crimeea. În urma incendiului, muniția depozitată a detonat.
• Arma de înaltă precizie a Forțelor Aerospațiale Ruse din zona satului ANDREEVKA, regiunea Herson, a lovit punctul de comandă și observație al batalionului 3 al brigăzii 46 aeromobile, precum și punctul de provizoriu. desfășurarea acestei brigăzi în zona așezării LOZOVOE. A distrus peste 20 de naționaliști și a rănit până la 30 de naționaliști.
• Ca urmare a unui foc concentrat asupra pozițiilor brigăzii 72 de infanterie motorizată din zona așezării ARTYOMOVSK a Republicii Populare Donețk, au fost peste 50 de naționaliști, precum și șase piese de echipament militar. distrus.
• ▪️După retragerea naționaliștilor din pozițiile lor din zona ARTYOMOVSK, cadrele militare ale forțelor aliate au dezvăluit faptele unei încălcări directe de către regimul de la Kiev și sponsorii săi occidentali a cerințelor Convenției de la Geneva.
• pe 14 august, la sud de ARTYOMOVSK a Republicii Populare Donețk, la pozițiile lăsate de unitățile brigăzii 72 mecanizate a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei, militarii ruși au descoperit peste 50 de mine antitanc EMP F2 de fabricație franceză. Aceste mine, după ce au fost plasate în poziție de luptă, nu pot fi îndepărtate sau neutralizate. Utilizarea acestora încalcă direct cerințele celui de-al doilea protocol „Cu privire la interzicerea sau restrângerea utilizării minelor, capcanelor și altor dispozitive”, care face parte din Convenția de la Geneva privind interzicerea sau restricționarea utilizării fără discernământ. Arme, adoptate la New York la 10 octombrie 1980
• În total, de la începutul operațiunii militare speciale, 267 avioane, 148 elicoptere, 1.743 vehicule aeriene fără pilot, 365 sisteme de rachete antiaeriene, 4.328 tancuri și alte vehicule blindate de luptă, 799 vehicule de luptă cu sisteme de rachete cu lansare multiplă, 3.307 de câmp piese de artilerie și mortiere, precum și 4902 unități de vehicule militare speciale
• Luptătorii unităților NM din RPD au eliberat complet Peski. Sub controlul Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei se află doar intersecția șoselei de centură pe drumul spre Pervomayskoye, unde se află zona fortificată a formațiunilor ucrainene. Lupte au loc în zona stației de semințe adiacente.
• în Donbas Unitățile Diviziei a 3-a de puști motorizate a Forțelor Armate RF au recăpătat controlul asupra Bogorodichny.
• confruntările continuă pentru Mazanovka. Artileria Forțelor Armate ale Federației Ruse lovește continuu în pozițiile Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei din așezarea și pădurile din jur.
• Cu ceva timp în urmă, unități ale diviziei a 3-a puști motorizate ruse au ocupat satul Bogorodichnoye. Lupta pentru el a continuat câteva luni.
• Unitățile „Wagner PMC” continuă să suprime unități ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei în estul orașului Bakhmut (Artemovsk), câștigând un punct de sprijin în zona străzii Patrice Lumumba.
• rușii preluând controlul operațional asupra teritoriului unității de apărare aeriană de lângă Avdiivka, pe care inamicul îl transformase într-un centru de apărare.