ISW

Key Takeaways

• Russian government sources confirmed that Russian authorities are bringing Ukrainian children to Russia and having Russian families adopt them. The forcible transfer of children from one group to another “with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group” is a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
• Russian authorities are deploying security forces to Luhansk Oblast likely in response to waning support for the war and growing unwillingness to fight among Luhansk residents. This deployment diverts these forces from operations elsewhere in Ukraine, likely contributing to the broader Russian failure to translate limited tactical gains into operational successes.
• Russian officials may have conducted a false flag event in Donetsk City to justify attacks against Ukrainian government buildings on Ukrainian Independence Day.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast and south of Bakhmut, on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City, and southwest of Donetsk City.
• Russian forces made limited gains east of Mykolaiv City and in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military assets and ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to increase one-time enlistment bonuses for recruits, and are likely recruiting personnel with no prior military experience for specialist positions.
• Ukrainian partisan activity continues to disrupt Russian occupation activities.

Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks between Izyum and Slovyansk on August 23. A Ukrainian volunteer claimed that Russian troops launched several attacks around Izyum on August 22 but did not specify exactly where these attacks occurred.[16] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Russian forces conducted airstrikes on Bohorodychne (20km northwest of Slovyansk) and continued shelling settlements near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.[17]

Newly observed and geolocated footage of artillery exchanges between Ukrainian and Russian forces north of Slovyansk in the Sviatohirsk supports ISW’s previous assessment that Russian forces are likely occupying positions within the Sviaty Hory forest and have not yet crossed the Siverskyi Donets River around Pryshb and Tetyanivka.[18] The footage shows Ukrainian troops striking Russian positions in densely forested areas about 22km north of Slovyansk and Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions in Pryshyb (17km north of Slovyansk), which reaffirms ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have been unable to conduct a contested river crossing of the Siverskyi Donets and advance on Slovyansk from its due north.[19] Russian forces additionally shelled residential infrastructure in Slovyansk on the night of August 22 to 23.[20]

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks toward Siversk on August 23. Siversk’s Civil Military Administration reiterated that the city remains under Ukrainian control but that Russian forces constantly conduct artillery strikes on Siversk and surrounding environs.[21]

Russian forces continued ground attacks to the northeast and south of Bakhmut on August 23. Russian troops, including elements of the Luhansk People’s Republic 6th Cossack Regiment, continued to fight in Soledar, about 10km northeast of Bakhmut.[22] Russian forces additionally continued attempts to advance on Bakhmut from the south, specifically from around Kodema and Zaitseve.[23] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces have encircled Kodema (13km southeast of Bakhmut) from three sides and are advancing on Zaitseve (9km southeast of Bakhmut).[24]

Russian forces conducted ground attacks on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City on August 23. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to break through Ukrainian defensive lines and advance towards Krasnohorivka, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske- which form a line along Donetsk City’s northwestern outskirts. [25] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces are continuing to focus on the encirclement of Adviivka (north of Donetsk City) and are in control of 75% of Marinka, on the southwestern outskirts of Donestk City.[26] Russian forces continued to fire on Ukrainian positions along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City-Marinka frontline.[27]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest of Donetsk City on August 23. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to improve their tactical positions near Novomykhailivka and Zolota Nyva 25km and 60km southwest of Donetsk City, respectively.[28] Russian troops additionally continued offensive operations around Vuhledar, 45km southwest of Donetsk City.[29]

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground assaults around Kharkiv City on August 23. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces focused on maintaining current positions.[30] The Derhachi City Council reported that Ukrainian forces attempted to break through Russian defensive lines near Dementiivka, west of Kozacha Lopan, and towards Velykii Prokhody and Tsupivka, all north of Kharkiv City, which may suggest that Ukrainian forces are continuing limited ground attacks to contest Russian-held lines in northern Kharkiv Oblast.[31] Russian forces conducted airstrikes near Pytomnyk, Kostyantynivka, and Verkhnii Saltiv.[32] Russian forces continued shelling Kharkiv City and settlements along the line of contact.[33]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces made limited territorial gains east of Mykolaiv City and in northwestern Kherson Oblast. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces took control of Blahodatne (which the Russian MoD referred to as Komsomolske) about 45km due east of Mykolaiv City.[34] The Russian MoD added that Russian forces have established a 12 square km zone of control around Blahodatne by advancing three kilometers into Ukrainian defenses. Geolocated footage posted on August 22 also showed Russian forces reportedly firing TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems at Ukrainian forces in the northern part of the settlement on an unspecified but likely recent date.[35] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 22 that Russian forces had unspecified “partial” success in the direction of Blahodatne, and Russian forces likely advanced into the settlement.[36] The Russian MoD also claimed control over Blahodativka, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over Inhulets River, and unspecified settlements in its vicinity.[37] Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking a Russian BMD-2 airborne infantry fighting vehicle in Blahodativka, which indicates that the settlement is contested.[38] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces advanced northwest of Oleksandrivka, approximately 38km west of Kherson City, and reached the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast administrative border.[39] ISW cannot independently verify this claim, for which the Russian MoD did not provide visual evidence.

CNN

Norway and the United Kingdom will jointly supply micro-drones to Ukraine to aid in its fight against Russia’s invasion, the Norwegian Defense Ministry said on Wednesday. The Norwegian-developed Black Hornet drones from manufacturers Teledyne FLIR are worth up to $9.25 million, the ministry said in a statement. The package includes Black Hornet units, spare parts, transportation and training, which will be financed by a British-led fund to which Norway has contributed, according to the ministry. 

The State Department on Tuesday advised Americans to leave Ukraine immediately, warning of potential Russian attacks on Wednesday’s 31st anniversary of independence, to which Putin says the country is not entitled. There are also fears that the capital’s return to a pale imitation of normality could be shattered by Russian strikes after the daughter of influential, ultra-nationalist philosopher and war propagandist, Alexander Dugin, was killed in a car bomb near Moscow. Ukraine has denied responsibility and the hasty Russian investigation offers little confidence in its claims that an operative from Kyiv’s special services was to blame. But the murder has sparked chilling Russian demands for vengeance and total warfare against Ukraine.

BBC

So far Western weapons are helping Ukraine to hold the line and frustrate Russian supply lines, but it will take something seismic for the momentum to shift and for Kyiv to force Russia out completely. Therefore, this military status quo looks set to continue, at a growing, unimaginable cost for tens of thousands of families. Also – while widely viewed as the country’s war hero, President Volodymyr Zelensky is now facing criticism for how he prepared for Russia’s attack. Notably over his decision not to act on warnings from the US, saying it would cause panic and damage Ukraine’s economy.

Financial Times

Neither side has the immediate upper hand. Neither side has shown any lasting appetite for negotiations. And neither side is giving up. Ukraine has vowed to fight on until it drives Russia from its territory; meanwhile, the grinding conflict has only appeared to deepen the resolve of Russia president Vladimir Putin to seek victory, despite heavy battlefield losses and western sanctions that have crippled Russia’s economy.

Al Jazeera

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in an address to the Crimea Platform summit, has promised to do all he can to win back the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia eight years ago, and urged international allies to support the effort.

The UN nuclear watchdog will visit the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine within days if talks to gain access succeed, it said in a statement. “I’m continuing to consult very actively and intensively with all parties,” the International Atomic Energy Agency’s statement quoted IAEA chief Rafael Grossi as saying. “The mission [to Zaporizhzhia] is expected to take place within the next few days if ongoing negotiations succeed.”

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has warned that a potential uptick in Russian shelling of Ukraine would not change Kyiv’s approach to the war, as Ukrainian retaliation would only get stronger in the future.

The Guardian

• Ukraine is bracing for possible Russian strikes as it marks its independence day and 31 years since the end of Soviet rule. Authorities have cancelled celebrations in Kyiv as officials warn that Russia is preparing to attack the capital. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said he had information from Ukraine’s intelligence services and international partners that there was an increased threat, as the US said it believed Russia would target civilian and government infrastructure in the next few days. 
• Zelenskiy has warned Russia of a strong response to any independence day attacks. Russia “will receive a response, a powerful response”.
• Zelenskiy said Ukraine will not agree to any proposal to freeze the current frontlines in order to “calm” Moscow, which controls about 22% of Ukraine including Crimea. “At the point where we are, we are not ready for a ceasefire. We explained that there will be no Minsk-3, Minsk-5, or Minsk-7. We will not play these games, we have lost part of our territories this way … it is a trap,” he said during a press conference after a summit of the Crimea Platform in Kyiv.
• Zelenskiy also vowed to return Crimea to Ukraine, saying it would become part of the EU along with the rest of the country. “We will return Crimea, because it is our territory. In any way we decide. We will decide it on our own, without consulting any other state. It all began with Crimea, and it will end with Crimea.”

Surse ruse și separatiste*

*citez canale Telegram ale unor milblogeri ruși sau ale unor instituții ruse și separatiste, care la rândol lor citează surse militare ruse sau separatiste. Traducerea este Google translate, deci poate suferi ca stil, formă, conținut

Situația în direcția Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog
▪️ Militarii trupelor aeriene ruse după capturarea lui Blagodatny la vest de Snigirevka continuă să se deplaseze adânc în liniile defensive ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei de-a lungul autostrăzii către Nikolaev.
▪️Pe sectorul Krivoy Rog al frontului, unități ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei au încercat din nou să asalteze pozițiile Forțelor Armate RF din Vysokopole. Atacul a fost respins
RAPORTUL MINISTERULUI DE RĂZBOI RUS
◽️ Ca urmare a acțiunilor ofensive pe direcția Herson-Nikolaev în zona Aleksandrovka, forțele aliate au distrus unități ale brigăzii 28 mecanizate a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei și au ajuns la granița administrativă a regiunii Nikolaev. 36 de kilometri pătrați din teritoriul regiunii Herson au fost luați sub control. Așezarea Komsomolskoye a fost eliberată, avansul în adâncimea apărării inamicului în această direcție s-a ridicat la trei kilometri. A stabilit controlul asupra teritoriului regiunii Nikolaev cu o suprafață de 12 kilometri pătrați.
◽️ În plus, în zona Andreevka au fost provocate pierderi semnificative Brigăzii 35 Marină și Brigăzii 46 Aeromobile a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei. Inamicul a fost alungat din satul Blagodatovka și din așezările din apropiere.

Ofensiva în direcția Donețk se dezvoltă cu succes.
◽️ Eliberarea așezării Marinka se apropie de finalizare, peste 75 la sută din care se află deja sub controlul forțelor aliate.
◽️ Continuă acțiunile de încercuire a grupării AFU din zona Avdiivka.
◽️În zona așezării Kodema, aceasta este blocată din trei părți și se efectuează distrugerea sistematică a unității de elită a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei – batalionul 214 „OPFOR”.
◽️ În zona Artemovsk, ca urmare a operațiunilor ofensive de succes, forțele aliate au înaintat aproape de așezarea Zaitsevo, care este un nod important al apărării orașului.
💥 Armele de înaltă precizie ale Forțelor Aerospațiale Ruse din zonele așezărilor Slaviansk și Konstantinovka din Republica Populară Donețk au lovit punctele de desfășurare temporară ale brigăzilor 81 aeromobile și 95 de asalt aerian. Până la 200 de naționaliști și 18 unități de echipament militar au fost distruse.
◽️ Ca urmare a pierderilor mari în zona așezării Novomikhailovka, batalionul 2 mecanizat al brigăzii 66 mecanizate a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei și-a pierdut capacitatea de luptă. Militarii unității și-au părăsit pozițiile și au plecat într-o direcție necunoscută.
💥 În cursul zilei, douăsprezece posturi de comandă ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei au fost lovite în zonele așezărilor Iakovlevka, Soledar, Podgornoye, Artemovsk, Kodema, Georgievka, Romanovka, Dobrovolye, Vodyane și Pavlovka ale Republicii Populare Donețk, Dorozhnyanka și Kamenskoye din regiunea Zaporozhye, precum și forța de muncă și echipamentul militar al Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei în 164 de districte.

• VKS a distrus până la 200 de naționaliști ucraineni din brigăzile situate pe teritoriul RDP în zonele așezării. Slaviansk și Konstantinovka;
  💥 Distruse: șapte depozite de arme de rachete și artilerie și muniție în zonele așezărilor Bereznegovatoe din regiunea Nikolaev și Soledar din Republica Populară Donețk, precum și patru depozite de combustibil pentru echipamente militare în zonele așezărilor Harkov și Chuguev în regiunea Harkov, Markovo și Podgornoe în Republica Populară Donețk.