Război în Ucraina. Update 4 Septembrie 2022

ISW

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is making verifiable progress in the south and the east. Ukrainian forces are advancing along several axes in western Kherson Oblast and have secured territory across the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk Oblast. The pace of the counteroffensive will likely change dramatically from day to day as Ukrainian forces work to starve the Russians of necessary supplies, disrupt their command and control, and weaken their morale even as counteroffensive ground assaults continue. The Russians will occasionally counterattack and regain some lost ground and will of course conduct likely fierce artillery and air attacks against liberated settlements and advancing Ukrainian troops. Ukrainian forces have made substantial enough progress to begin evoking more realistic commentary from the Russian milbloggers, who had been hewing very closely to the Kremlin’s optimistic rhetoric until today.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia is ready to negotiate Moscow’s conditions for ending the Russian war in Ukraine on September 4, but the Kremlin is maintaining its maximalist goals to  “denazify” Ukraine. Peskov said that the Kremlin would discuss with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky how Ukraine would meet Russian conditions during peace negotiations and noted that Russia will complete all stated objectives of the “special military operation.”[8] Peskov also noted that all conflicts end at the negotiations table and expressed that relations between Russia and the West will improve soon. Peskov’s statement comes amidst the reports of the Ukrainian counteroffensive progress in southern Ukraine. The stated objectives of the “special military operation” include regime change in Kyiv as well as the surrender of all of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts to the Kremlin. Russian efforts to integrate occupied areas of Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Kharkiv Oblasts demonstrate that Moscow expects to keep those territories permanently as well. Peskov’s statement is thus a reiteration of Moscow‘s demands for Ukrainian surrender and offers no indication that Moscow is willing to negotiate seriously and on the basis of a realistic assessment of its prospects in a war that is turning in Ukraine’s direction.

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces liberated two unnamed settlements in southern Ukraine and one settlement in Donetsk Oblast. ISW has independently confirmed the liberation of the settlement in Donetsk Oblast and one of the settlements in Kherson Oblast.
  • Geolocated footage shows Russian forces firing MLRS rounds from positions on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), ammunition depots, and key positions to exhaust Russian forces and restrain Russian combat power.
  • The Ukrainian liberation of Vysokopillya ignited critical discussions among some Russian milbloggers while the Russian Defense Ministry maintained that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct “unsuccessful attempts” to advance.
  • Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 127th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps personnel reportedly refused to fight due to a lack of supplies.
  • Ukrainian forces regained territory on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City.
  • Russian forces are reportedly moving military assets to areas situated along major ground lines of communication (GLOCS) in rear areas in Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Ukrainian officials announced that Ukrainian forces are continuing to make unspecified advances in Kherson Oblast and are exhausting Russian troops and logistics as part of the counteroffensive on September 4. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that “Ukrainian flags are returning to those places where they rightfully belong” and noted that Ukrainian forces liberated two unnamed villages in southern Ukraine.[9] Ukrainian officials and social media users published footage of Ukrainian forces raising a Ukrainian flag in Vysokopillya, south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border.[10] Russian milbloggers noted that Russian forces withdrew from Vysokopillya to avoid encirclement from the Olhyne and Potomkyne directions (west and east of Vysokopillya, respectively).[11] Some milbloggers noted that a lack of Russian aviation in the area (diverted, they say, to the fight around the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River) allowed for Ukrainian advances to Vysokopillya.[12]

Ukrainian officials did not name the second liberated settlement area. Kherson Oblast Administration Head Yaroslav Yanushevich reported that Russian forces shelled Olhyne, Potomkyne, Doryanka, and Novovoznesenske (southeast of Vysokopillya), while some milbloggers claimed that elements of Russian airborne forces also withdrew from Novovoznesenske, which may indicate a Ukrainian advance in the area.[13] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched airstrikes at Lyubomyrivka (approximately 28km north of Kherson City), and Russian milbloggers reported that Russian forces left the settlement.[14] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported Russian airstrikes on Sukhy Stavok, Bezimenne and Kostromka, and other settlements around the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, which may indicate that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 12km southeast of the bridgehead.[15] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are firing artillery at Kostromka and Sukhy Stavok, where battles continued throughout the day.[16] Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Gumenyuk noted that Ukrainian forces are advancing and liberating settlements, but Russian forces are continuing to shell newly-established Ukrainian positions from afar.[17]

The Ukrainian General Staff noted that servicemen of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) 127th Regiment of the 1st Army Corps refused to fight, citing a lack of supplies such as water.[18] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian counterintelligence representatives are dealing with the 127th regiment and that its fate is unknown.[19] Russian forces formed the 127th Regiment of forcefully mobilized personnel in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast in early April, alongside four other DNR regiments: the 103rd, 109th, 113th, and 125th.[20] ISW previously reported that the DNR redeployed the 109th, 113th, and 125th Regiments to northwestern Kherson Oblast in late July, and the 109th regiment reportedly surrendered on the first day of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.[21] It is likely that Russian forces are reinforcing their frontline positions with inexperienced and forcefully mobilized elements that lack the will to fight.[22]

Gumenyuk noted that the Ukrainian counteroffensive strategy is to exhaust Russian forces and added that Ukrainian forces have enough resources and forces to restrain Russian combat power in southern Ukraine.[23] Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), ammunition depots, and key positions to support Ukrainian ground counteroffensive efforts. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian missile and artillery units struck a Russian ferry crossing in Beryslav (north of Nova Kakhovka), and social media users published footage of Ukrainian forces striking a segment of the Antonivsky Road Bridge on the left bank of the Dnipro River.[24] Ukrainian attacks on ferry crossings are likely in direct support of ongoing counteroffensive operations, as the disruptions generated by such strikes are more ephemeral than those caused by attacks on bridges. Continuing strikes on the bridges, on the other hand, are indicators of a long-term effort to prevent Russian forces from reestablishing GLOCs before the conclusion of the liberation of western Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian military officials noted that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Bashtanka Raion, and confirmed the destruction of a Russian ammunition depot in Oleshky (approximately nine kilometers south of Kherson City) that occurred on September 2.[25]

Social media footage also showed that Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian targets across central Kherson Oblast on September 3 and 4. Ukrainian social media footage showed a large smoke plume in Kozatske (on the right bank of the Dnipro River near Nova Kakhovka), where Ukrainian officials previously reported destroying a Russian pontoon crossing on September 3.[26]  The Russian Defense Ministry claimed to intercept Ukrainian HIMARS, HARM, and Olkha rounds in Nova Kakhovka and over the Kakhovka Hydro Power Plant, and Ukrainian social media users reported hearing explosions in Nova Kakhovka.[27]

Russian milbloggers claimed that battles continued in five directions: east and west of Vysokopillya, near the Ukrainian bridgehead, near Snihurivka approximately 60km east of Mykolaiv City, and northwest and west of Kherson City on September 4. Milblogger accounts remain largely unverifiable as Ukrainian officials have not announced additional advances outside of those mentioned above.

Milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces were unsuccessful in advancing in the Petrivka direction, southeast of Vysokopillya.[28] Milbloggers claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in street fights in Arhanhelske (on the eastern bank of Inhulets River and west of Vysokopillya), and that Russian forces still control the southern part of the settlement.[29] Milbloggers also stated that fighting continued on the southern outskirts of Olhyne, the next settlement west of Vysokopillya.[30] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian advances southeast of the bridgehead are contingent upon their ability to accumulate more reserves and noted that Russian forces are intensely firing at Ukrainian forces in the Andriivka area.[31] Milbloggers noted that Ukrainian attempts to seize Blahodatne (west of Snihurivka) were unsuccessful and that artillery fire continues in the Snihurivka area.[32] Milbloggers noted that Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in positional battles in Posad-Pokrovske, following a Ukrainian unsuccessful attempt to conduct a counteroffensive in the area.[33] Positional battles reportedly continued in Oleksandrivka (35km west of Kherson City), and milbloggers published footage of abandoned Ukrainian military equipment in the area.[34] Satellite imagery showed Russian second and third lines of defenses in Kyselivka (approximately 18km northwest of Kherson City).[35] The satellite imagery also showed that Russian forces dug the trenches at the end of May and extended them in late August. Russian forces have extensive defenses around Kherson City International Airport in Chornobaivka. Geolocated footage showed Russian forces striking advancing Ukrainian forces south of Tavriiske (approximately 38km northwest of Kherson City).[36]

The Ukrainian liberation of Vysokopillya ignited some critical discussions among Russian milbloggers, whereas the Russian Defense Ministry maintained that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct “unsuccessful attempts” to advance in the Mykolaiv-Kryvyi Rih direction.[37] The Russian Defense Ministry changed its day-to-day recap of the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive from declaring total Ukrainian defeat on August 29, to claiming high Ukrainian losses among personnel and military equipment.[38] Milbloggers largely presented Ukrainian advances in northern Kherson Oblast as a “massacre of Kherson Oblast” due to claimed large losses among Ukrainian troops.[39] Some milbloggers noted that Ukrainian forces conducted a correct counteroffensive around Vysokopillya, and noted that Russian forces lost a tactically significant settlement.[40] This is the first occasion on which some milbloggers have broken with the Kremlin’s optimism about the Ukrainian counteroffensive and recognized Russian setbacks.

Russian Main Effort- Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort- Southern Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Note: We have revised our organization of Russian lines of effort to include Russian operations in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast as part of the Donetsk Oblast effort due to recently observed force allocations indicating the Russian grouping east of Hulyaipole, previously grouped with the Southern Axis, will support efforts southwest of Donetsk City.

Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults northwest of Slovyansk on September 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces attempted ground assaults near Bohorodychne, Pasika, Krasnopillya, and Dolyna, all within 25km northwest of Slovyansk.[41] It is unclear if Ukrainian forces have liberated Pasika (approximately 27km northwest of Slovyansk and on the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. Russian forces conducted airstrikes near Bohorodychne (approximately 20km northwest of Slovyansk) and Husarivka (approximately 40km northwest of Izyum) and continued routine shelling along the Izyum-Slovyansk Axis.[42]

Ukrainian forces regained territory on the left bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in Donetsk Oblast.[43] Geolocated imagery and footage published on September 3-4 show that Ukrainian forces crossed the Siverskyi Donets River and took control of Ozerne, approximately 20km east of Slovyansk, on an unspecified date.[44] Ukrainian forces’ ability to cross the Siverskyi Donets River without coming under Russian fire suggests degrading Russian control of the river’s left bank east of Slovyansk.

Russian forces did not conduct any ground assaults near Siversk on September 4 and continued routine shelling on settlements in the area.[45] Russian forces conducted an airstrike on Verkhnokamianske, approximately 8km east of Siversk.[46]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Bakhmut on September 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to attack near Bakhmut, Bakhmutske (approximately 10km northeast of Bakhmut), and Pokrovske (approximately 11km northeast of Bakhmut).[47] Russian sources claimed that Wagner forces captured most of Kodema but that fighting continues in the area as of September 4.[48]

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks northwest of Donetsk City on September 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground assaults near Pervomaiske (10km northwest of Donetsk City) and Pisky (5km northwest of Donetsk City).[49] Russian troops continued routine artillery strikes along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.[50]

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks southwest of Donetsk City or in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast on September 4 and continued routine artillery strikes in these areas.[51] The Russian Defense Ministry claimed that Russian forces struck Kurakhove and Yelyzavetivka (roughly 10km south of Kurakhove), Donetsk Oblast, and  Malynivka, Zaporizhia Oblast (roughly 15km east of Hulyaipole).[52]

Supporting Effort #1- Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication – GLOCs – to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces did not conduct any ground attacks north of Kharkiv City and continued routine shelling of Kharkiv City and the surrounding settlements on September 4.[53] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Vovchansk (75km northeast of Kharkiv City and on the intersection of the T2104 and T2108 highways) and Balakliya (50km northwest of Izyum and at the intersection of the M03 and P78 highways).[54] Social media footage showed a powerful explosion in Balakliya.[55]

upporting Effort #2- Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces did not conduct any ground attacks west of Hulyaipole in Zaporizhia Oblast and continued routine shelling along the line of contact on September 4.[56] The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) claimed that Russian forces struck a Ukrainian command post in Mykilske, 23km northeast of Orikhiv.[57]

Russian forces are reportedly moving military assets to areas situated along major ground lines of communication (GLOCs), likely to protect Russian GLOCs to Melitopol and Tokmak. Ukraine’s Resistance Center reported that Russian forces are bringing Russian military personnel to Tokmak, on the intersection of the N30, T0408, and T0401 highways. These GLOCs connect Melitopol and Berdyansk to the front lines in Zaporizhia Oblast and the rear in western Donetsk Oblast.[58] The Resistance Center also reported that Russian forces are storing military equipment in agricultural equipment storage areas near Melitopol.[59] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that 70 Russian servicemen currently live in a school that is actively holding classes in Orlyanske, 24km southwest of Vasylivka checkpoint.[60] The Ukrainian General Staff also stated that Russian forces are using many active schools as cover for Russian military assets.[61] Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov warned that Russian forces are planning military provocations at schools in occupied territories, supporting ISW’s prior assessment.[62]

Russian and occupation officials are increasing their claims of Ukrainian attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). The Russian MoD claimed that Russian electronic warfare systems prevented eight Ukrainian attack drones from striking the ZNPP on September 4, intercepting the drones 1.5km from the ZNPP grounds.[63] Occupation Enerhodar Head Alexander Volga claimed on September 3 that a Ukrainian artillery shell pierced the wall of one of the nuclear reactor containment units on an unspecified date but did not produce the photo of the damage he claimed to possess.[64] Russian news outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda published excerpts of interviews with claimed former ZNPP personnel who left Ukraine for Russia in which the former employees downplayed the risk and impact of a nuclear disaster at the ZNPP.[65] These claimed former employees stated that even direct artillery strikes are unable to penetrate the nuclear reactor containment units because the containment unit walls are too thick.[66] Komsomolskaya Pravda also reported claims that a disaster at the ZNPP would only cause nuclear contamination on a local level with an unspecified span, not a global level.

The Guardian

  • Ukraine has made progress in its recently launched counter-offensive with its forces taking two settlements in the south, a third in the east, as well as additional territory in the east of the country, president Volodymyr Zelenskiy claimed during a Sunday evening address. “The Ukrainian flags are returning to the places where they should be by right,” he added. Kyrylo Tymoshenko, deputy head of the president’s office, posted an image of soldiers raising the Ukrainian flag over a village he said was in Ukraine’s south. “Vysokopillya. Kherson region. Ukraine. Today,” Tymoshenko wrote.
  • Russian authorities said the situation around the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine was calm on Sunday, after UN inspectors said on Saturday it had again lost external power. 

Al Jazeera

Zelenskyy says his forces have taken two settlements in southern Ukraine, a third settlement in the east, and additional territory in the east of the country. He did not say precisely where the territories were and provided no timeline, except to say he had received “good reports” at a meeting on Sunday from his military commanders and head of intelligence. In his nightly video address, Zelenskyy thanked his forces for liberating a settlement in the eastern Donetsk region, the taking of “certain heights” also in an eastern area in the Lysychansk-Siversk direction and liberating two southern settlements.

Surse ruse și separatiste*

*informații din surse guvernamentale și milblogeri ruși și separatiști

Comunicatul Ministerului Apărării al Federației Ruse

💥 În ziua ostilităților în această direcție (Mykolaiv-Krivoy Ruh), inamicul a pierdut 11 tancuri, 17 vehicule de luptă de infanterie, inclusiv patru vehicule de luptă de infanterie Bradley fabricate în SUA, alte 10 vehicule de luptă blindate, 5 camionete cu mitraliere grele și peste 150 de militari. .
💥 În zona satului Romanovka, regiunea Mykolaiv, avioane de vânătoare ale Forțelor Aerospațiale Ruse au doborât un avion de atac Su-25 al Forțelor Aeriene Ucrainene.
💥 Armele de înaltă precizie ale Forțelor Aerospațiale Ruse au distrus punctele de desfășurare temporară a unităților Brigăzii 80 de Asalt Aeropurtat și un depozit de muniții din apropierea localității Kramatorsk, Republica Populară Donețk. Peste 120 de militari ucraineni și 11 unități de vehicule blindate și speciale au fost lichidate.
💥 În urma loviturilor de foc concentrate asupra pozițiilor unităților brigăzilor 30 mecanizate și 95 de asalt aerian din zonele așezărilor Gusarovka, regiunea Harkov și Adamovka, Republica Populară Donețk, 110 militanți au fost lichidați. Comandamentul Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei subîncărcează aceste formațiuni în detrimentul cetățenilor mobilizați din regiunile de vest și centru ale Ucrainei.
💥 În zona așezării Kurakhovo din Republica Populară Donețk, ca urmare a unei lovituri cu arme de înaltă precizie ale Forțelor Aerospațiale Ruse în două puncte de desfășurare a mercenarilor străini, până la 50 de militanți străini au fost eliminat.
◽️ Aviația operațional-tactică și de armată, forțele de rachete și artileria continuă să lovească în instalațiile militare de pe teritoriul Ucrainei.
💥 În cursul zilei au fost lovite patru posturi de comandă, printre care: sediul formației naționaliste „Kraken” din regiunea Harkov, brigada 66 mecanizată din regiunea Elizavetovka din Republica Populară Donețk, brigada 65 mecanizată din regiunea Nikolsky din Regiunea Zaporojie, precum și 57 de unități de artilerie, forță de muncă și echipamente militare ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei în 189 de raioane.
💥 Trei depozite de muniții au fost distruse în zonele așezărilor Seversk din Republica Populară Donețk, Nikolskoye și Malinovka din regiunea Zaporojie.
💥 Sistemele rusești de apărare aeriană au doborât cinci vehicule aeriene fără pilot în zonele așezărilor Balakliya, Pershotravneve din regiunea Harkov, Zavitne Bazhannya, Ivanovka și Zelyony Gay din Republica Populară Donețk.
◽️ Trei rachete antiradar HARM fabricate în SUA au fost interceptate în zona așezării Novaya Kakhovka, regiunea Herson, precum și șapte obuze de sisteme de lansare multiplă de rachete în zona hidroelectricului Kakhovskaya. centrală electrică, inclusiv patru – „HIMARS” și trei – „Arin”.
📊 În total, de la începutul operațiunii militare speciale, 287 avioane, 151 elicoptere, 1.872 vehicule aeriene fără pilot, 372 sisteme de rachete antiaeriene, 4.804 tancuri și alte vehicule blindate de luptă, 824 vehicule de luptă cu sisteme de rachete cu lansare multiplă, 3,367 piese de artilerie și mortiere, precum și 5276 de unități de vehicule militare speciale.
⚠️ În ciuda prezenței reprezentanților AIEA la centrala nucleară de la Zaporojie, regimul de la Kiev continuă provocările pentru a crea amenințarea unui dezastru provocat de om.
❗️ Pe 3 septembrie, opt vehicule aeriene fără pilot cu muniție suspendată au fost folosite pentru a lovi teritoriul centralei nucleare.
◽️ Dronele ucrainene care se apropiau de stație au fost blocate de echipamente rusești de război electronic, după care grenadele au fost aruncate forțat în locuri pustii, la o distanță de mai bine de un kilometru și jumătate de perimetrul de securitate al stației.
◽️ Situația radiațiilor în zona centralei nucleare Zaporojie rămâne normală.

Rybar

link imagine rezoluție mare

HARKOV
▪️În ciuda contraofensivei Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei în direcția Harkov, inamicul a intensificat munca artileriei:
➖Formațiuni ucrainene au tras asupra cazacului Lopan, Udy, Sosnovka și Pasajele Mari din nordul regiunii Harkov. În direcția Barvenkovsky, Izyum și Balakliya au fost supuse bombardamentelor masive de către Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei.
➖DRG-urile ucrainene intră periodic pe teritoriul controlat de Forțele Armate RF. Grupuri de lunetişti inamice lucrează nu departe de Oud.
➖Forțele armate ale RF au efectuat lovituri în punctul de desfășurare al batalionului național „Kraken” din districtul Kievsky din Harkov.
➖Artileria și aviația rusă au lucrat la ținte în zona Stary Saltov, Andreevka, Dolyna, Gusarovka, Slatino, Chuguev și Peremoga.
DONBAS
▪️Nu au loc schimbări semnificative în linia frontului pe direcția Bakhmut (Artemovsk).
➖ În Soledar și Bakhmut, forțele aliate sunt angajate în bătălii de poziție la periferie.
➖Confruntările continuă în Kodema: echipele de asalt Wagner PMC stoarce inamicul la periferia vestică a așezării.
▪️În direcția Donețk, forțele aliate luptă în suburbiile capitalei RDP.
➖Formațiuni ucrainene au tras din nou în așezările aglomerației Donețk, printre civili sunt răniți și morți.
➖Între Peski și Pervomaisky, unități ale Miliției Populare din RPD luptă pentru fortărețele de pe șoseaua de centură Donețk.
➖Forțele aliate împing inamicul înapoi de la gara Mayorskaya din nord-vestul Gorlovka.
ZAPOROJE
▪️În regiunea Zaporojie, părțile sunt angajate în dueluri de artilerie de-a lungul întregii linii de contact. Artilerişti ruşi lovesc în poziţiile Forţelor Armate ale Ucrainei din Nikopol şi Marganeţ de pe malul de nord al Niprului, de unde este bombardat ZNPP.
KHERSON
▪️În direcția Krivoy Rog, luptele active pentru Vysokopole și Olgino continuă. În această dimineață, Forțele Aeropurtate au părăsit Vysokopolye pentru a evita încercuirea. La ora 16:00, trupele ruse au lansat o contraofensivă și, conform informațiilor preliminare, au reușit să niveleze linia frontului, restituind pozițiile abandonate.


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