ISW

Russia’s partial mobilization will not transform the war this year and may or may not have a significant impact on Russia’s ability to continue operations at their current level next year.  Ukraine and the West should neither dismiss it nor exaggerate it. 

• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announced “partial mobilization” will not materially affect the course of the war in the coming months.
• Putin did not explicitly threaten to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues counter-offensive operations to liberate occupied areas after Russian annexation.
• Ukrainian forces likely continued offensive operations around Lyman.
• Ukrainian forces conducted strikes north and east of Kherson City as part of an operational-level interdiction campaign against Russian logistics, military, and transportation assets in Kherson Oblast.
• Ukrainian and Russian sources identified three areas of kinetic activity on September 21: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border around Vysokopillya.
• Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing crypto-mobilization efforts regardless of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of partial mobilization.
• Russian-appointed occupation administrators are likely increasing law enforcement and filtration measures in occupied areas of Ukraine in preparation for Russia’s sham annexation referenda.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Vovchansk-Kupyansk-Izyum-Lyman Line)

Ukrainian forces likely continued counteroffensive operations toward Lyman on September 21. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to break through Russian defenses around Yampil (just southeast of Lyman) and in Lyman itself.[10] Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian and Ukrainian troops are actively fighting in Drobysheve (just northwest of Lyman). While ISW cannot independently verify these claims, they are consistent with previous visual evidence of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations along the Lyman-Yampil-Bilohorivka line. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian troops repelled an attempted Russian attack near Kupyansk, eastern Kharkiv Oblast, along the Oskil River.[11] This report indicates that Russian troops are likely engaged in limited attempts to threaten newly recaptured Ukrainian positions along the right bank of the Oskil River.

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground attacks in Kherson Oblast on September 21 and reiterated that Ukrainian forces are conducting an operational-level interdiction campaign in Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command and the Ukrainian General Staff both noted that Ukrainian strikes targeted Russian equipment, logistics, transportation, and command and control assets in southern Ukraine throughout the day.[12]

Social media footage provided visual evidence of the continuing Ukrainian interdiction campaign against Russian positions north and east of Kherson City on September 20 and 21. Geolocated footage showed the aftermath of Ukrainian strikes on Kherson City that reportedly hit a factory, a semiconductor plant, a Russian base, and a ferry crossing near the Antonivsky Bridge.[13] Ukraine’s Southern Operation Command noted that Ukrainian troops hit Russian equipment and manpower concentrations and a command post of the 7th Guards Air Assault Division just north of Kherson City in Chornobaivka.[14] Social media footage from September 20 also showed that Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in Nova Kakhovka, about 60km east of Kherson City, corroborating Ukrainian claims of Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in Nova Kakhovka.[15] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command additionally stated that Ukrainian troops hit Russian command posts in Beryslav Raion (65km east of Kherson City).[16]

Ukrainian and Russian sources identified three areas of kinetic activity on September 21: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border around Vysokopillya. The Russian Defense Ministry and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are continuing to strike Ukrainian military equipment in Pravdyne (around 30km northwest of Kherson City).[17] The Ukrainian General Staff also noted that Russian forces shelled Pravdyne.[18] Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian military equipment in Davydiv Brid.[19] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian forces destroyed Russian drones when they were conducting aerial reconnaissance over Kostyrka (southeast of Vysokopillya) and Novodmytrivka on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River along the T2207 highway.[20] An uptick in Russian aerial reconnaissance in these areas may indicate that Russian forces have shifted forces away from this sector of the front.

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued ground attacks on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut and against Avdiivka and continued routine fire along the frontline in Donetsk Oblast on September 21.[21] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks against Vesele, just northeast of Soledar; Zaitseve and Kurdyumivka, south of Bakhmut; and Bakhmutske, northeast of Bakhmut.[22] Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut, reportedly on the grounds of the Champagne Wine Factory.[23] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces shelled but did not inflict any damage against the Slovyansk Thermal Power Plant, likely as part of Russia’s continuing campaign to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure.[24] Russian forces conducted airstrikes against infrastructure facilities in Bakhmut, indicating that Ukrainian forces still hold fortified positions in the city.[25]

Russian forces conducted routine shelling in western Donetsk Oblast and eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and additional Russian forces deployed to the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline. Ukraine’s General Staff reported continued shelling along the frontline in the area.[26] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a failed ground attack near Pavlivka, just north of Vuhledar.[27] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces are conducting artillery strikes on an unspecified road towards Vodyane, likely either the T0524 or T0509 highway or the Slavne-Vodyane road.[28] The Russian source also claimed that Ukrainian forces are deploying large quantities of equipment in the Vuhledar direction, though ISW cannot independently confirm this report.[29] A Ukrainian source stated that elements of the Russian 42nd Motorized Rifle Division are deployed on the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline and that several armored personnel carriers of the 35th and 74th Motorized Rifle Brigades traveled through Rozivka, Zaporizhia Oblast, likely to positions along the front line.[30]

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces did not conduct any ground assaults in western Zaporizhia Oblast and continued routine fire against Ukrainian frontline positions and rear areas in Mykolaiv Oblast on September 21.[31] Official Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck unspecified infrastructure facilities in Zaporizhzhia City, Zaporizhia Oblast; Synelnykove Raion, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast; and Shevchenkove and Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast.[32] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 21 that Ukrainian strikes inflicted severe casualties on Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast on September 19, including killing 50 personnel and destroying 15 units of military equipment and an ammunition depot in the Melitopol and Polohy administrative districts as well as in the area of Kamianka.[33]

Russian and Ukrainian sources traded accusations of striking the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on September 21, damaging one of the power units. Ukrainian state nuclear agency Energoatom stated that Russian shelling damaged the communication equipment and a transformer for reactor number 6.[34] Energoatom reported that the damaged transformer cut power to the reactor, forcing two emergency diesel generators to kick in to provide power to the reactor’s cooling pumps. ZNPP employees reportedly enabled an alternate power supply and shut down the emergency generators within an hour of the attack. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that a Ukrainian large-caliber projectile damaged a water pipe of reactor number 5’s safety system and shelling damaged a power line to reactor number 6.[35] An image circulated by social media users on September 21 shows a burst water pipe at the ZNPP near the reactor buildings.[36] Russian forces continued routine fire against Ukrainian positions on the opposite side of the Kakhovka Reservoir from Enerhodar.[37]

Military Land

Day summary:

The situation in Ukraine remains unchanged. Russia remains focused on Bakhmut and also managed to repel a Ukrainian attack in Kherson Oblast.

Russia declared partial mobilization on September 21, signaling the invasion isn’t going according to plan and more manpower is needed. A large prisoner exchange also happened on September 21. In total, 215 Ukrainian servicemen returned home, including the commander and deputy commander of Azov Regiment.

Kharkiv Front

includes the area of Kharkiv and Chuhuiv

• Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack in the vicinity of Kupyansk.

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Bakhmut Front

• Russian forces assaulted Ukrainian positions in the direction of Mykolaivka Druha and Kurdyumivka. Both attacks were repelled.
• The enemy tried to advance and capture new positions in the area of Zaitseve and Mayorsk, but without success.

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Slovyansk Front

• Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Studenok. We still lack a solid proof the town is under Ukrainian control.

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Siverskyi Donets

• Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in Marinka and towards Novomykhailivka.

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Kherson Front

Based on the released footage, elements of Ukrainian 28th Mechanized Brigade attacked Russian controlled Pravdyne and reached the outskirts. However, during the counter-attack of Russian troops, Ukrainians were pushed back and lost several vehicles.

Declarație Shoigu, Ministrul Apărării al FR

▪️Toate încercările de a avansa Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei în direcția Nikolaev-Kryvyi Rih au fost zădărnicite.
▪️Gruparea Izyum-Balakleyskaya a fost transferată în Donbass pentru a întări capacitățile de lovitură ale trupelor ruse.
▪️ În ultimele 3 săptămâni, peste 7.000 de militanți ucraineni, 970 de echipamente, inclusiv 208 tancuri, au fost distruse în timpul operațiunii speciale.
▪️Blocul NATO continuă să se îndrepte spre granițele Rusiei.
▪️Vladimir Putin de la 1 ianuarie 2023 a dat instrucțiuni să mărească numărul Forțelor Armate Ruse cu 137.000 de militari, care vor echipa noile formațiuni militare. 
▪️A sosit momentul să punem în practică experiența acumulată în cadrul exercițiilor strategice anuale. Forțele Armate RF vor continua operațiunea militară specială până când obiectivele vor fi îndeplinite pe deplin. 
▪️Puterea de luptă a Forțelor Aeropurtate Ruse va fi mărită.

Raportul Ministerului Apărării al Federației Ruse

💥 În urma distrugerii prin incendiu a unităților brigăzii 28 mecanizate a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei în zona așezării Pravdino, regiunea Herson, pierderea conexiunii pentru ziua respectivă s-a ridicat la peste două o sută de oameni și 21 de unități de tehnică militară. Personalul companiei 4 a batalionului 2 al acestei formațiuni a murit de fapt complet din cauza comandantului brigăzii 28 a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei, care a trimis unitatea să contraatace pe câmpul minat.
💥 În zona Pavlovka din Republica Populară Donețk, în urma distrugerii provocate de incendiu a batalionului 3 al brigăzii 1 a președintelui Ucrainei, care a făcut o încercare de contraatac nereușită, pierderile inamicului s-au ridicat la peste 60 de persoane uciși și răniți, patru tancuri și opt mașini.
💥 Arma de înaltă precizie a Forțelor Aerospațiale Ruse din zona așezării Artemovsk a Republicii Populare Donețk a lovit punctul de desfășurare temporară a batalionului 2 al brigăzii 93 mecanizate a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei. Peste 75 de militanți și nouă unități de echipament militar au fost distruse.
📊 În total, de la începutul operațiunii militare speciale, au fost distruse: 295 avioane, 155 elicoptere, 2018 vehicule aeriene fără pilot, 375 sisteme de rachete antiaeriene, 5052 tancuri și alte vehicule blindate de luptă, 841 vehicule de luptă multiplu. sisteme de lansare de rachete, 3405 tunuri și mortiere de artilerie de câmp și, de asemenea, 5743 de unități de vehicule militare speciale.

Rybar

💥 Zaporojie
În direcția Zaporizhia, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei desfășoară forțe pentru a conduce o contraofensivă. Scopul principal este de a perturba organizarea unui referendum privind aderarea regiunii la Rusia. Comanda trupelor este efectuată de gruparea consolidată „Khortitsa”.
▪️ În asaltul asupra pozițiilor rusești vor fi implicate unități separate ale brigadei 65, brigada 128, brigada 102 apărare, regimentul 9 Gărzii Naționale, brigada 15 și brigada 44 a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei. În plus, în această direcție este de așteptat să fie dislocat cel puțin un batalion al brigadei 1.
▪️Concentrarea principalelor forțe ucrainene se desfășoară la Orekhovo și Gulyaipole, de unde sunt planificate principalele lovituri pentru a sparge apărarea Forțelor Armate Ruse. 
▪️ Unitățile de ingineri ale brigăzii 65 a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei echipează cetăți de rezervă în Kirovo, Pavlovka și Komsomolskoye. Se stabilește comunicarea între unitățile ucrainene. 
▪️Echipajele de artilerie ale brigăzii 44 au crescut activitatea de impact cu foc asupra pozițiilor rusești de-a lungul întregii linii de contact, folosind obuziere M777 de 155 mm și obuziere autopropulsate Krab.
▪️Desemnarea țintei este oferită de echipajele UAV RQ-20 Puma și Bayraktar TB2, precum și de artilerii avansați din Novoandreevka, Novodanilovka și Novoselovka. 
🔻 După succesul din regiunea Harkov, comandamentul ucrainean intenționează să efectueze o contraofensivă la granițele sudice, mai ales pe fondul viitoarelor referendumuri din regiunile RDP, LPR, Herson și Zaporojie. Cu toate acestea, trupele ruse din aceste sectoare ale frontului sunt bine conștiente de planurile Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei. Există o pregătire sistematică a liniilor de apărare în profunzime, iar focul continuu este tras asupra rezervelor sosite ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei.

Analiză Rybar

Fighting for Lyman in September 2022
▪️ After Russian Forces’ withdrawal from the liberated territories in Kharkiv Region, AFU attempted to advance on Lyman and Yampil’ by crossing Siverskyi Donets. Russian units repelled the attack on the outskirts of Lyman and stopped the enemy at the line Staryi Karavan — Brusivka — Dibrova.
▪️In the next three days, AFU continued their attempts to storm Lyman, but BARS-16 Kuban Battalion successfully held back the enemy’s attack until regular army units approached.
▪️ After several failed attempts to take Lyman almost head-on, AFU switched to the tactic of engaging sabotage and reconnaissance groups. Daily, several sabotage and reconnaissance groups were deployed across Oskil River to probe Russian Armed Forces’s defence.
▪️ Ukrainian formations began redeployment via the established river crossing near Svyatohirsk and Yarova. On Pryshyb side, the 81st Airmobile Brigade’s assault groups conducted combat reconnaissance near Drobysheve to probe Russian Armed Forces’ defence.
▪️ Russian Forces seized the initiative and launched a counteroffensive south of Lyman. Russian Armed Forces succeeded in breaking through AFU defensive lines and forcing the enemy to retreat to the area of Dibrova and the the bank of Siverskyi Donets.
▪️Despite failures and significant losses, AFU’s Command does not abandon the attempts to occupy Lyman. Capturing the town is important for stabilizing the front along Oskil River.
▪️ Most likely, Ukrainian formations will first try to occupy Drobysheve with subsequent access to Stavky to encircle Lyman from the north. At the same time, AFU will push through Russian Armed Forces’ defences south of the town to hold back Russian Forces.

Boris Rhojin

1. Pe direcția Avdeevka - niciun progres semnificativ. Luptă în zona Pervomaisk și Sand.
2. În zona Marinka și Ugledar - fără modificări. Bătălii de poziție cu încercări lente ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei de a investiga posibilitatea de a avansa în zona Pavlovka și Nikolsky.
3. În zona Artemovsk - luptă de-a lungul autostrăzii Artemovsk-Dzerzhinsk și lângă Zaitsevo. Sunt lupte la periferia lui Artemovsk. În Soledar, nu s-au înregistrat progrese semnificative.
4. Luptele pentru Disputed și Belogorovka continuă. Inamicul continuă să încerce să avanseze în direcția Kremennaya. 
5. În direcția slavă, inamicul continuă să încerce să atace Krasny Liman și Yampol. Există bătălii pentru Drobyshevo și Yarovaya. 
6. Frontul de pe Oskol s-a stabilizat relativ. Pentru partea de est a Kupyansk se luptă. Inamicul continuă să facă clic pe Scars. La granița cu Federația Rusă continuă bombardarea satelor de graniță. Forțele armate ale RF lovesc la Harkov și Chuguev.
7. În direcția Zaporozhye - nicio schimbare. Inamicul continuă să cerceteze oportunitatea de a începe să avanseze în direcția Vasilyevka, Tokmak și Pologi. 
8. Pe direcția Nikolaev - fără modificări. După catastrofa cu atacul de la Pravdino, ardoarea ofensivă a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei s-a domolit. Bătăliile de poziție continuă pe capul de pod Andreevsky. În zona Arhangelsk și Olgino - nicio schimbare.