Război în Ucraina. Update ziua 248 – 29.10.2022

ISW

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanned surface vehicles on October 29. Social media footage documented an unknown number of unmanned surface vehicles striking at least one Grigorovich-class frigate in Sevastopol on October 29.[1] Footage also showed smoke near the port in Sevastopol and what appeared to be Russian air defense in Sevastopol engaging air targets.[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces used seven autonomous maritime drones and nine unmanned aerial vehicles to conduct a “terrorist attack” against the BSF and civilian targets in Sevastopol.[3] Attacks on military vessels in wartime are legitimate acts of war and not terrorist attacks. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces destroyed all air targets, destroyed four maritime drones on the outer roadstead, and three maritime drones on the inner roadstead. A similar unidentified unmanned surface vehicle first appeared on the coast of Crimea on September 21.[4]

Damage to Black Sea Fleet vessels is unclear at this time. The Russian MoD claimed that the attack inflicted minor damage against BSF minesweeper Ivan Golubets and a protective barrier in the south bay.[5] Russian officials did not acknowledge any damage to a Grigorovich-class frigate, similar to how the Russian MoD denied any damage to the cruiser Moskva when Ukrainian forces sunk it on April 14. Ukrainian officials have not claimed responsibility for the attack as of this publication.

The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Russia indefinitely suspended its participation in the United Nations-brokered grain export deal with Ukraine due to the attack on October 29.[6]  Russia had been setting rhetorical conditions to withdraw from the deal for some time, however.

Key Takeaways      

  • Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanned surface vehicles on October 29.
  • The Kremlin reportedly relieved the commander of the Central Military District (CMD), Colonel General Alexander Lapin, of his position as the commander of the “central” group of forces in Ukraine.
  • Russia is likely expediting efforts to forcibly depopulate areas of Kherson Oblast along the Dnipro River and repopulate them with Russian soldiers, some of them out of uniform in violation of the law of armed conflict.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely responding to pressure levied by milbloggers regarding its treatment of Russian prisoners of war (POWs) and the conduct of prisoner exchanges.
  • Ukrainian forces consolidated gains and continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Ukrainian intelligence indicated that the highest quality Russian troops are still responsible for the defense of Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River.
  • Russian forces likely slowed the pace of offensive operations in the Bakhmut area due to a Ukrainian strike.
  • Russian sources claimed that Russian troops launched an offensive in the Vuhledar area.
  • Russian troops likely made marginal gains around Donetsk City.
  • The Kremlin reportedly instructed Russian judges to not grant prisoners parole but instead to direct them toward recruitment in unspecified private military companies (PMCs).
  • The Kremlin is likely conducting an information operation to reduce tensions between Christians and Muslims in Russia to cater to religious minority groups within the Russian armed forces.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Ukrainian forces consolidated gains and continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line on October 29. Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Eastern Group of Forces Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on October 29 that Ukrainian troops have established full fire control of the main sections of the R66 (Svatove-Kreminna) road, which Cherevaty noted makes it impossible for Russian logistics and supplies to continue along the route.[28] Cherevaty also reported that fighting is ongoing along the Svatove-Kreminna line.[29] A prominent Russian milblogger similarly claimed that Ukrainian troops are attempting to break through to Kreminna and accumulating forces to attack a position less than 2km away from current Russian positions and within 4km of the R66 highway.[30] Several Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), reported that Ukrainian troops attacked in the direction of Chervonopopivka, 6km northwest of Kreminna.[31] The Ukrainian General Staff stated that a Ukrainian precision strike eliminated 20 Russian soldiers and wounded 30 in Chervonopopivka.[32]

Russian sources also continued to claim that Russian troops conducted offensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on October 29. The Russian MoD claimed that unspecified Russian “active actions” destroyed Ukrainian equipment concentrations in Timkivka, Ivanivka, Tabaivka, and Khrokmalne, all in the Kupyansk area and about 20km northwest of Svatove.[33] Geolocated footage posted on October 29 shows a Ukrainian strike destroying a Russian tank in Pisky (a small settlement in northeast Kharkiv Oblast about 3km south of the international border), indicating that Russian troops are still holding positions east of the Oskil River near the international border. [34]

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces still have their highest quality forces operating in Kherson Oblast, predicting that Ukrainian forces will liberate the city by the end of November.[35] Chief of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Kyrylo Budanov, stated that there are 40,000 Russian servicemen in Kherson Oblast, of which most are competent units from Russian airborne troops, special operations forces, and naval infantry.[36] Budanov added that Russian forces are reinforcing these units with mobilized personnel and noted that the Russian grouping of forces operates in Kherson City, and on the western and eastern banks of the Dnipro River. Budanov noted that Russian forces are continuing to resist and are impeding Ukrainian advances on a daily basis. Budanov reiterated that the GUR’s officially assesses that Russia will not fully destroy the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant Dam, but instead will destroy the road that goes over the dam to slow Ukrainian advances across the Dnipro River.

Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River on October 29. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces are continuing to deploy mobilized men to the western bank, despite the fact that these men show signs of low morale and a lack of prior training.[37] Ukraine’s Resistance Center reported that Russian forces are forcing civilians to construct fortifications in Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces continued to evacuate unspecified occupiers and are stealing medical equipment from Kherson City hospitals.[38] Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Military Administration Serhiy Khlan stated that Russian forces have not yet prepared for street fights in Kherson City.[39]

Ukrainian and Russian sources provided limited information regarding the situation on the Kherson Oblast frontline on October 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces struck Davydiv Brid and Mala Seideminukha (on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River) and Kobzartsi (about 60km east from Mykolaiv City).[40] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled five Ukrainian ground attacks in the directions of Mylove, Sukhanove, Pyatikhatky, Ishchenka, Bruskinske, and Sadok along the frontline in northern Kherson Oblast.[41] A Russian milblogger also claimed that elements of the 126th Separate Guards Coastal Brigade and the 11th Guards Air Assault Brigade continued to operate in the northeastern direction in (presumably) western Kherson Oblast.[42]

Ukrainian forces continued conducting their interdiction campaign on October 29. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian missile and artillery units destroyed three ammunition depots in the Beryslav and Mykolaiv Raions.[43] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command added that Ukrainian aviation also carried out eight strikes on Russian manpower and equipment concentration areas, air defense, and logistics support areas. Ukrainian social media sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivsky Bridge and noted two explosions in Chornobaivka, northwest of Kherson City.[44]

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces likely slowed their tempo of offensive operations near Bakhmut on October 29, likely recovering from a Ukrainian strike on October 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision strike against Russian forces, who were preparing for another attack, south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk on October 28.[45] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike killed approximately 300 Russian personnel and that Russian forces evacuated 60 wounded personnel to a medical facility in Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff subsequently did not report any Russian ground assaults near Bakhmut in either its morning or its evening reports.[47]

Russian milbloggers claimed en masse that Russian forces began an offensive push towards Vuhledar in western Donetsk Oblast on October 28-29.[48] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces attacked towards Pavlivka from positions to the south near Yehorivka and from the east near Mykilske.[49] Some Russian sources claimed that Russian forces destroyed the first line of Ukrainian defenses and entered the southeastern outskirts of Pavlivka.[50] None of these claims included corroborating combat footage. The Ukrainian General Staff did not report that Russian forces conducted any ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on October 29.[51]

Russian forces continued making incremental territorial gains near Donetsk City on October 29. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces entering the southeastern outskirts of Vodyane, north of Donetsk City.[52] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces seized a section of the M04 highway and advanced near Nevelske and towards Pervomaiske, both northwest of Donetsk City.[53] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults northeast of Avdiivka near Kamianka, north of Donetsk City near Vodyane, and northwest of Donetsk City near Nevelske.[54]

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued routine air, missile, and artillery strikes west of Hulyaipole and in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts on October 29.[55] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City, Mykolaiv City, Ochakiv, Nikopol, and Marhanets.[56] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to land on the south bank of the Dnipro River near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) but that Russian artillery fire repelled the attack.[57] 

Military Land

Briefly:

Ukrainian forces advanced in Luhansk Oblast, and gained fire control over the Kreminna – Svatove road as the result. The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut is holding, despite the numerous attacks by Russian forces.

Russian troops managed to reach the outskirts of Vodyane north of Donetsk Airport. It’s the second meaningful advance of the enemy in this area since the start of the Russian re-invasion (Pisky being first). There is no reason to panic, Avdiivka is far and many fortified Ukrainian positions in between.

Svatove direction

  • Ukrainian elements of 92nd Mechanized Brigade reached the outskirts of Novoselivske settlement.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack towards Andriivka.
  • The spokesman of Ukrainian Army reveled that Ukrainian troops have gained a full fire control over certain places on the Kreminna – Svatove road, likely the Ukrainian break through in the area of Karmazynivka settlement managed to advance closer to the road.

Bakhmut Front

  • Russian troops attacked Ukrainian positions in the area of Yakovlivka, but without success.
  • Fighting remains active in Bakhmutske, Soledar and also in the direction of Bakhmut.
  • The enemy attempted to advance in the direction of Zelenopillya, but was forced to retreat.
  • Russian forces assaulted Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Mayorsk. The attack was repelled.

Lysychansk direction

  • Ukrainian defenders repelled another attempt by the enemy to seize new ground in the vicinity of Bilohorivka.

Avdiivka Front 

  • Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Kamyanka settlement. The attack was repulsed.
  • A mechanized group of the enemy managed to break through Ukrainian lines north of Donetsk Airport and reached the outskirts of Vodyane. Ukrainian reinforcements reportedly stopped the advance, but there is so far no official word if they managed to reverse the gains.
  • Ukrainian defenders repelled yet another Russian attempt to gain seize new positions in the area of Pervomaiske and Nevelske.

Donetsk Front

  • Fighting continues in Marinka, but the enemy is unable to advance.
  • Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions in the direction of Vremivka. The attack was repelled.

Surse ruse

Boris Rhojin

  1. Ugledar
    Operațiunile ofensive ale trupelor ruse au început dimineața. Trupele au ajuns la periferia Pavlovka. Au fost lupte în mijlocul zilei. Inamicul a reușit să fie împins puțin, dar este prea devreme să vorbim despre spargerea frontului.
  2. Marinka.
    Se raportează o oarecare înaintare a trupelor noastre spre nordul satului.
  3. Avdiivka.
    Luptele continuă pentru Pervomaiskoye și în direcția Vodyany. Mici schimbări în favoarea noastră.
  4. Artemovsk/Bakhmut
    Lupte in zona industriala si pentru zonele fortificate din zona Experimentala.
    Nu există încă un progres semnificativ către Kurdyumovka.
  5. Svatovo-Kremennaya.
    Inamicul a intensificat presiunea în direcția autostrăzii Svatovo-Kremennaya, care se află sub focul inamicului. Inamicul a capturat și satul Nevskoye din apropierea satului Terny. Atacurile serioase ale inamicului continuă în această direcție.
  6. Herson.
    Inamicul continuă să ne cerceteze apărarea în direcțiile Nikopol și Krivoy Rog, dar nu poate obține rezultate semnificative. În același timp, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei suferă aici pierderi semnificative regulate în timpul unor astfel de atacuri și recunoașteri în vigoare.
    Comandamentul Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei declară că doresc să captureze Herson până la sfârșitul lunii noiembrie.

Rybar

imagine rezoluție mare
🔻Sevastopol și Republica Crimeea:
▪️Dronele aeriene și maritime din Ucraina au lansat un atac asupra navelor și infrastructurii Flotei Mării Negre din Golful Sevastopol.
▪️Sistemele de apărare aeriană, flota și aviația au respins raidul inamic: două nave și un dig au primit avarii necritice. Ca răspuns la incident, autoritățile ruse au anunțat suspendarea „acordului cu cereale”.
🔻 Regiunile Belgorod și Kursk:
▪️Formațiuni ucrainene au tras asupra clădirilor rezidențiale din ferma Stary din cartierul Volokonovsky din regiunea Belgorod. Nu există răniți sau răniți.
▪️Drona ucraineană a atacat o substație de la periferia orașului Sudzha, regiunea Kursk. Fragmentele au deteriorat transformatorul, instalația funcționează normal.
🔻Direcția Starobelsk:
▪️În sectorul Svatovski, comandamentul ucrainean adună forțe pentru a se pregăti pentru următoarea ofensivă pe Kuzemovka. Artileria rusă a lansat o lovitură preventivă asupra concentrărilor Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei.
▪️La sectorul Limansky, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei au făcut o nouă încercare de a ataca pozițiile Forțelor Armate Ruse din zona Torsky. După loviturile țintite ale artileriei ruse, inamicul s-a retras la pozițiile inițiale, suferind pierderi semnificative în oameni și echipamente.
▪️Grupul batalion-tactic al Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei, cu sprijinul mercenarilor străini, a atacat pozițiile Forțelor Armate Ruse de lângă Makiivka din direcția Tern și Torskoy. Inamicul a intrat în sat, dar spre seară, unitățile din diviziile 144 și 3 de pușcă motorizate ale Armatei 20 a Forțelor Armate RF l-au alungat înapoi la liniile de plecare.
🔻Directia Soledar:
Nu există schimbări semnificative în situația de pe front. Luptele continuă la periferia orașului Bakhmut, Experienced și Soledar.
🔻Direcția Donețk:
Forțele armate ale RF au lansat o ofensivă împotriva satului Pavlovka, o zonă mare fortificată la sud de Ugledar. Trupele ruse au ocupat pozițiile avansate ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei și au ajuns la marginea de sud a satului.
▪️Unitățile din NM DPR continuă să avanseze la nord de aeroportul Donețk. Ei s-au înrădăcinat în partea de sud-est a satului Vodyanoye, precum și în clădirile din partea de sud a Experienced. Trupele ruse continuă să avanseze și în Pervomaiskoye.
▪️Formațiunile ucrainene au bombardat Donețk, Oleksandrivka, Makiivka, Stepne, Staromikhailivka și alte așezări ale aglomerației.
🔻Directia Zaporozhye:
▪️În după-amiază, trupele ruse au atacat o instalație de infrastructură critică din Zaporojie. Fabrica de aluminiu a fost avariată: conform datelor preliminare, exista un punct de staţionare pentru mercenari străini.
🔻Frontul de Sud: direcția Nikolaev-Berislav
▪️Unitățile Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei au încercat o ofensivă în apropierea satului Bruskinskoye, unitățile rusești au respins atacul.
▪️Forțele Armate RF au atacat poziții inamice din Nikolaev, Trifonovka, Andreevka și Novoaleksandrovka.
▪️Formațiunile ucrainene au tras din HIMARS MLRS pe zona portului fluvial Herson, toate rachetele trase au interceptat sisteme de apărare aeriană. Nu au fost victime.
▪️Noaptea, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei au tras 12 rachete asupra unui feribot cu ponton în apropierea podului Antonovsky din Herson, dintre care trei au lovit ținta.

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