Război în Ucraina. Update 2 August

Russian forces have likely decided to attack Avdiivka frontally from occupied Donetsk Oblast territory rather than waiting for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from their prepared defensive positions as a result of Russian envelopment operations northeast of the settlement. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Kremlin-sponsored sources have published videos suggesting that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of their positions around the Butivka Coal Mine ventilation shaft southwest of Avdiivka.[1] Ukrainian forces have held positions around the Butivka Coal Mine ventilation shaft since 2015 and have described the location as the closest Ukrainian position to Donetsk City and a key defensive outpost for Avdiivka.[2] Russian forces have likely captured the Ukrainian position, given the Ukrainian General Staff‘s vague reports of ”partially” successful Russian advances in the area.[3] Russian forces are also continuing assaults on Pisky, west of Avdiivka, and will likely attempt to seize the E50 highway connecting the two settlements. Russian forces had previously attempted to break through Avdiivka’s northeastern outskirts but have not made significant progress in months.

A Russian missile strike reportedly damaged a Ukrainian air defense system in Lviv Oblast on August 2.[16] The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported that Russian forces launched eight Kh-101 (Kh-555) missiles in the direction of central, southern, and western Ukrainian Oblasts from their positions in the Caspian Sea.[17] The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported that Ukrainian air defense forces intercepted seven of the eight missiles.[18]

Key Takeaways

• Unconfirmed social media reports suggest that Iran may have sent the first batch of drones to Russia and sent pilots and maintenance personnel to train on the Russian Su-35, potentially suggesting that Iran may seek to use recent aviation agreements to facilitate the acquisition of Russian combat aircraft.
• Russian forces conducted unsuccesful offensive operations northeast and northwest of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk and east of Siversk.
• Russian forces made marginal gains southeast of Bakhmut and continued offensive operations to the northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces made incremental advances around Avdiivka and are continuing attempts to push southwest of Avdiivka.
• Russian forces launched two assaults in northern Kherson Oblast and are continuing to redeploy troops to the Southern Axis.
• Russian federal subjects are forming new volunteer battalions in Novosibirsk, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Kurgan Oblasts, and are changing time periods for enlistment compensations.
• Ukrainian civilians are continuing to resist the Russian occupation with acts of civil disobedience and partisan sabotage as the Kremlin considers longer-term methods of population control in occupied Ukraine.

Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk along the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border on August 2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted reconnaissance-in-force near Dovhenke and Dolyna, 25 and 20km northwest of Slovyansk, respectively.[19] Russian forces continued to shell settlements near the oblast border and struck Kurulka, Dolyna, Barvinkove, Adamivka, Krasnopillya, and Mazanivka.[20]

Russian forces conducted a ground assault east of Siversk on August 2. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces conducted a limited and unsuccessful attack in Ivano-Darivka, about 5km southeast of Siversk.[21] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian troops failed to advance from Novoluhanske (southeast of Bakhmut) in the direction of Ivano-Darivka, which likely suggests that Russian forces attempted to advance on Ivano-Darivka from a southwestward direction.[22] Russian troops continued to conduct air and artillery strikes in the vicinity of Siversk.[23]

Russian forces made incremental advances southeast of Bakhmut and continued ground attacks to the northeast and southeast of Bakhmut on August 2. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces had “partial success” along the Vidrozhennya-Kodema line, about 20km southeast of Bakhmut.[24] Russian forces conducted a series of unsuccessful offensive operations southeast of Bakhmut, namely around Roty, Vershyna, Klynove, and Travneve, and northeast of Bakhmut around Volodymyrivka and  Yakovlivka.[25] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian aviation reportedly increased the intensity of air strikes in the general area of Bakhmut.[26] Russian forces continued to shell Bakhmut City and surrounding settlements.[27]

Russian forces made advances around Avdiivka and will likely continue to prioritize assaults southwest of the settlement. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Militia claimed that Russian forces have pushed Ukrainian forces out of their defensive positions around the Butivka Coal Mine ventilation shaft, southwest of Avdiivka, on August 2.[28] Ukrainian forces have held defensive positions near Butivka Coal Mine ventilation shaft since 2015, and the area has been subjected to continuous shelling throughout the years.[29] Ukrainian forces have also previously defined Butivka as a strategic defensive location and the closest Ukrainian position to Donetsk City.[30] Kremlin-sponsored outlet Izvestia published footage reportedly from the Butivka mine ventilation area, which indicates that Ukrainian forces likely withdrew from the area.[31] Russian Telegram channel Svarschiki previously claimed that Russian forces have been pushing Ukrainian forces from their positions in the area on July 31, and the Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces had partial success when advancing in the Avdiivka area on the same day.[32] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported on August 2 that Russian forces had partially advanced in the direction of Donetsk City-Pisky and continued launching unsucessful frontal assaults on Avdiivka.[33]

Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force operation on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border in Novopil.[34] 

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful offensive operations along the Kharkiv City Axis on August 2. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces withdrew after attempting to advance from Ternova to Bayrak, approximately 48km northeast of Kharkiv City, and Dementiivka, approximately 67km north of Kharkiv City.[35] Russian forces launched an airstrike on Verkhnii Saltiv and continued conducting tank, tube, and rocket artillery strikes on Kharkiv City and settlements to the north, northeast, and southeast.[36]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults in northern Kherson Oblast on August 1 and August 2, likely in an effort to prevent Ukrainian forces from advancing into Russian occupied positions. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched an unsuccessful attack on Trydolyubivka (just south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border) and conducted a failed reconnaissance-in-force operation in Bilohirka, situated on the western bank of the Inhulets River.[37] Russian forces continued to launch airstrikes and shell Ukrainian positions near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River and on the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[38] Kherson Oblast Administration Head Dmytro Burtiy reported that Ukrainian forces liberated seven more unnamed settlements in Kherson Oblast on August 2.[39] 

Russian forces continued to accumulate and transfer forces to southern Ukraine from other axes. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Vadym Skibitsky reported that a battalion tactical group (BTG) of Russian airborne troops arrived in Crimea and will deploy to the frontlines in the near future.[40] Skibitsky had previously reported that Russian forces started redeploying airborne troops from Donetsk Oblast to occupied Kherson Oblast territories, and the BTG will likely support Russian efforts to suppress Ukrainian counteroffensives in the region.[41] Skibitsky added that Russian forces are expanding air defense systems in Crimea and are regrouping forces in the Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblast directions, which likely indicates that Russian forces are intending to defend their positions from Ukrainian counteroffensives throughout the Southern Axis. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command noted that there have not been any changes to the Russian force composition in Kherson Oblast as of August 2, however.[42] Ukrainian Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol  Petro Andryushenko also published footage of a convoy of Russian engineering equipment and personnel carriers moving through Mariupol in the Zaporizhia Oblast direction.[43]

Russian forces continued to fire at Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts with MLRS and air defense systems. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces fired S-300 air defense missiles and Uragan MLRS systems at Mykolaiv City and launched 16 rockets from Smerch MLRS at the Kryvorizka Power Station.[44] Russian forces also shelled other settlements in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts with MLRS and tube artillery.[45] Russian forces did not fire on Nikopol on August 2, however they are likely to resume attacks on the settlement. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also noted that Russian forces are continuing to use the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) just south of Nikopol, as a “human shield” for their military base, as Ukrainian forces will not fire at the NPP in self-defense.[46]

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and positions in Kherson Oblast, setting conditions for a counteroffensive in the region. Geolocated footage showed that Ukrainian forces struck Russian ammunition depots in Arkhanhel’s’ke and Starosillya, both situated on the T2207 GLOC in northwestern Kherson Oblast and the eastern Inhulets River bank.[47] Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces hitting Russian mortar positions in Soldatske (approximately 30km northwest of Kherson City) with a likely US-provided Phoenix Ghost loitering munition.[48] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian aviation also hit three Russian strongholds in Oleksandrivka and Maksymivka, indicating that Ukrainian aviation continues to operate northwest and north of Kherson City.[49] Social media footage also showed a series of explosions in Chornobaivka, a settlement just northwest of Kherson City that Ukrainian forces have struck on numerous previous occasions.[50]

Militaryland

Russian forces mounting one attack after another near Donetsk in an attempt to break through Ukrainian lines at all cost. A meat grinder is reported from Pisky, where Ukrainian infantry defends the settlement without artillery and heavy support. The Donetsk front and the area around Bakhmut seems to be the primary focus for Russian troops at this moment.

Ukrainian forces reportedly liberated several settlements in Kherson Oblast, but no further details were released.

Kharkiv & Chuhuiv direction

• The enemy tried to improve its position in the area of Bairak. Ukrainian troops stopped the attempt.

Bakhmut Front

• Russian reconnaissance element tried to gain new positions in the area of Yakovlivka. The group retreated after a short skirmish.
• Fighting continues in the area of Soledar, Russians are slowly advancing forward.
• Russian troops attempted to push forward in the vicinity of Vershyna and Zaitseve, but were met with precise fire and had to retreat.
• Russian forces advanced from the area of Pokrovske closer to Bakhmut. Soldiers of Ukrainian 58th Motorized Brigade putting up fierce resistance, but are unable to hold off the overwhelming force.
• The enemy attacked Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Kodema from the direction of Vidrodzhennya. The attack was repelled.
• Ukrainian troops repulsed a Russian attack towards Travneve.

Slovyansk direction

• Ukrainian forces discovered a Russian recon element near Mazanivka. The element retreated after being revealed.
• Russian recon element assaulted Ukrainian positions in the area of Dovhenke and Dolyna. Ukrainian defenders forced the enemy to withdraw.
• The enemy attacked Ivano-Darivka settlement east of Siversk, but without success.

Donetsk Oblast

• Heavy fighting continues in the area of Marinka, Pisky and Avdiivka. Russian forces are attempting to break Ukrainian lines at all costs.
• The enemy has partial success in Pisky, where they managed to advance and are in control of approximately half of the settlement. A report by Ukrainian soldier can give you an insight on what’s going on there.
• Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack in the vicinity of Novopil.

Kherson Front

• Russian troops attacked Ukrainian positions in the area of Trudoliubivka. The attack failed.
• Russian army has moved additional BTGs in the area amid the reports of possible Ukrainian counter-attack towards Kherson.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly liberated seven settlements in Kherson Oblast, but no other details were shared, and thus it’s impossible to verify.

Later edit

am primit informații dintr-o altă sursă privitor la evenimentele militare din 1 august. Le inserez aici, deoarece rapoartele din sursele ISW și Militaryland nu le menționează, nici măcar ca update pentru 2 August:

Rezumatul zilei 01.08.2022 Ukraina

• Trupele ucrainene nu pot rezista forțelor rusești copleșitoare din zona Bakhmut. Inamicul înaintează încet, dar sigur spre Bakhmut dinspre sud și est. Armata rusă își continuă ofensiva în zona Donețk, până în prezent au doar câștiguri minime, dar apărătorii ucraineni sunt capabili să respingă aceste atacuri, cu pierderi grele care încep sa se resimtă.
• Armata rusă a bombardat din nou zonele de graniță din Cernihiv și Sumi, a provocat daune majore infrastructurii și fortificatiilor militare.

Direcția Harkiv și Chuhuiv

• Grupul rus de cercetare- recunoaștere a încercat să localizeze poziții ucrainene în vecinătatea Husarivka. Încercarea, din direcția Nova Husarivka, a fost detectată și s-au semnalat dueluri puternice cu arme grele.

Direcția Bakhmut

• Trupele ruse au atacat pozițiile ucrainene de la Yakovlivka, atacul a fost respins cu greu.
• Inamicul înaintează încet, dar sigur, nu poate fi oprit, spre Soledar din direcția Stryapivka.
• Armata rusă are superioritate în aer și forță de de luptă zdrobitoare în zonă.
• Forțele ruse au capturat Pokrovske după o rezistență acerbă a apărătorilor.
• Trupele ucrainene s-au retras intr-o debandadă totală.
• Trupele ruse au folosit pozițiile recent câștigate la Pokrovske pentru a avansa către Bakhmut.
• Încercarea a fost oprită la doar 20 km de oraș.
• Inamicul a atacat forțele ucrainene în vecinătatea Zaitseve (lângă Vershyna), fără succes, dar au rămas pe pozițiile cucerite, neputând fi respinsi spre locul de pornire. (se pare că Zaitzeve a fost cucerită în 2 august, nn Radu Zlati)
• Forțele ruse au atacat Semyhirya pe 3 flancuri și au stabilit controlul asupra periferiei de est a așezării. Se așteaptă căderea localității în 24-36 de ore.
• Trupele ucrainene au respins un atac rusesc spre Travnate din direcția Dolomiților.

Direcția Slovyansk

• Apărătorii ucraineni au respins atacurile rusești în zona Dmytrivka și Brazhivka, dar se afla sub o presiune puternica. Probabil cele două orașe vor fi luate de ruși in următoarele 3 zile.
• Elemente SOF de cercetate- recunoaștere ruse au fost descoperit în vecinătatea Dolynei. După o scurtă încăierare, inamicul s-a retras.

Regiunea Donețk

• Trupele ucrainene au oprit cu greu înaintarea fortelor ruse de la Novoselivka Druha spre Krasnohorivka. Inamicul a câștigat totuși foarte mult teren de-a lungul șoselei regionale.
• Trupele ruse își continuă asaltul către Avdiivka și au capturat Butovka, la nord de Spartak. Continuă înaintarea în forță.
• Forțele ucrainene au respins o serie de atacuri asupra Krasnohorivka și Marinka.
• Forțele ruse au lansat o ofensivă împotriva Marinka și Pavlivka, ultimul fiind în pericol sa cadă în următoarele 24 de ore.

Frontul Herson include vecinătatea Hersonului și Mykolaiv

• Trupele ucrainene au respins un atac rusesc asupra Bilohirka din direcția Bruskynske.
• Cele 46 de localității din sudul si nordul regiuni Herson, dinspre Mykolaiv, respectiv Zaporojie, eliberate de armata ucraineană, este probabil un fake news de propagandă pt a reface moralul cetățenilor ucraineeni. Pozele de satelit militare nu indică cele zugrăvite în media. Singurele zone de confruntări directe sunt cele semnalate cu galben pe hartă.