ISW

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces liberated Lyman and are likely clearing the settlement as of October 1.
• Russia is likely setting conditions to assume legal responsibility for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
• Ukrainian troops are continuing to conduct counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast and setting conditions for future advances.
• Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas of Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian forces continued routine strikes against Ukrainian rear areas in the south.
• Russian military leadership is continuing to compromise the future reconstitution of the force by prioritizing the immediate mobilization of as many bodies as possible for ongoing fighting in Ukraine.
• Russian mobilization authorities continue to carry out discriminatory mobilization practices.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Vovchansk-Kupyansk-Izyum-Lyman Line)

Ukrainian forces liberated Lyman on October 1. The Russian Ministry of Defense and various Russian milbloggers confirmed that Russian troops withdrew from Lyman to “more advantageous lines,” and geolocated social media footage shows Ukrainian troops in various parts of Lyman throughout the day on October 1.[10] Russian sources indicated that the BARS-13 detachment that was holding the Russian defensive line in Drobysheve, just northwest of Lyman, withdrew to Kreminna (about 25km east of Lyman).[11] Details about Ukrainian advances remain unclear, however. Several Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops blew up a bridge on the eastern outskirts of Kirove, 10km northeast of Lyman.[12] However, the footage is not corroborated by social media geolocation communities. The dynamic nature of ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in this area is likely generating confusing and contradictory reporting. Russian sources also discussed Ukrainian attacks north of Lyman around Torske, Terny, and Yampilske, suggesting that Ukrainian troops are continuing efforts to take settlements north of Lyman as well.[13] ISW will continue to monitor developments around Lyman and provide updates on control of terrain as they become corroborated.

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Ukrainian military officials reiterated on October 1 that Ukrainian troops are continuing to conduct counter-offensive operations in Kherson Oblast and setting conditions for future advances in various areas along the frontline.[14] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Russian forces are drawing up reserves and regrouping in the face of constant Ukrainian actions in southern Ukraine.[15] Ukrainian officials additionally stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing an interdiction campaign to target Russian concentration areas in Kherson Oblast.[16]

Social media footage indicates that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian ammunition warehouse in Tavriisk, 57km east of Kherson City and on the outskirts of Nova Kakhkova.[17]

Russian sources identified one main area in which Ukrainian troops conducted active ground maneuvers in Kherson Oblast on October 1. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked Russian positions in Davydiv Brid, in western Kherson Oblast near the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border near the Inhulets River.[18] The milblogger claimed that Russian troops repelled the attack and forced Ukrainian troops to withdraw across the Inhulets, but maintained that Ukrainian troops are focused on taking Davydiv Brid.[19]

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas and continued routine fire along the line of contact in Donetsk Oblast on October 1.[20] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks directly on Bakhmut, to the northeast near Soledar, and south of Bakhmut near Vesela Dolyna (6km southeast of Bakhmut), Zaitseve (8km southeast of Bakhmut), and Niu York (15km west of Horlivka), and west of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske.[21]

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole and in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts on October 1.[22] Russian forces struck Zaporizhia City, Mykolaiv City, Ochakiv, and Nikopol.[23] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continued to strike Mykolaiv City with Shahed-136 kamikaze drones and damaged port, residential, and industrial infrastructure.[24] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces also conducted a missile strike against Odesa City, damaging industrial infrastructure.[25] Russian Zaporizhia Oblast occupation administrator Vladimir Rogov accused Ukrainian forces of intensifying shelling against Enerhodar and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.[26]

Russian forces continued to divert Russian military assets to southern Ukraine. Footage posted to Twitter on September 30 shows Russian covered and armored vehicles and tanks moving by rail reportedly to Crimea.[27] Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko stated that Russian forces transported 11 pieces of heavy equipment from Nikolske, Donetsk Oblast west towards Rozivka, Zaporizhia Oblast on October 1.[28]

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported explosions at the Belbek Airfield in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on October 1. Russian occupation Governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhaev claimed that a Russian plane skidded off the runway and caught fire as it attempted to land.[29] Blurred footage shows a plane exploding after rolling off the runway, and footage of the aftermath shows plumes of smoke and secondary explosions of what appears to be rocket ammunition.[30]

Military Land

Day summary:

Ukrainian Army liberated the key town of Lyman in the northern part of Donetsk Oblast and the nearby settlements. Russian forces, unable to gather enough reserves to support the garrison, decided to retreat towards Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian forces will now likely try to advance towards Kreminna and Svatove.

Despite the problems in the north, Russian forces remain primarily focused on Bakhmut and its surroundings, where they are unable to advance and capture new positions.

Kupyansk direction

• Russian forces attempted to cross the border and advance in the direction of Kozacha Lopan. The attempt was stopped by Ukrainian guardsmen.
• Ukrainian forces advanced east and liberated Kurylivka.

Bakhmut Front

• Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in Soledar and Bakhmutske. The fighting continues.
• Ukrainain defenders repelled Russian attack towards Vesela Dolyna.
• Russian troops unsuccessfully assaulted Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Odradivka, Zaitseve and Mayorsk.

Siverskyi Donets

• Ukrainian Army liberated Drobysheve and Stavky settlements.
• Amid the worsening situation, Russian command decided to withdrew its forces from Lyman through Zarichne towards Kreminna.
• Ukrainian forces announced the liberation of Lyman a few hours later. The 81st Airmobile Brigade and Kulchitskyi Battalion participated in the liberation of the town.
• Ukrainian reconnaissance element reached a bridge connecting Zarichne and Torske. Given the Russian retreat from the area, it’s likely that both settlements are under Ukrainian control.

Kherson Front

• Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions in the area of Bezimenne settlement. The defenders repelled the attack.
• According to unconfirmed information, Ukrainian forces launched an offensive in the area of Kreshchenivka and Zolota Balka. FIRMS data confirms artillery activity in the area.

Surse ruse

Analiză Rybar: Căderea Lyman

By mid-October 1 it was clear that Russian forces had failed to turn the situation in Lyman.
🔻AFU concentrated their efforts on three road segments: Lyman — Zarichne, Torske — Kreminna, and Torske — Svatove. Having correctly allocated forces, AFU concentrated on cutting the lines of communication of the Russian forces.
▪️At the same time, the Russian defensive lines in Lyman itself, Stavky, the northern outskirts of Yampil, and along the «Road of Life» continued to be pressed through.
▪️By noon on October 1, AFU had managed to physically cut off the Torske — Svatove road and contain the Russian Armed Forces in Terny area.
▪️Ukrainian flag was raised at the western entrance to Lyman. At least 20% of the town was controlled by the enemy by then.
▪️Fighting shifted briefly to the centre and eastern part of Lyman, the southern outskirts of Stavky, and the northern outskirts of Yampil. Communication between Torske and Lyman garrison was blocked by fire.
▪️Following strikes by the Russian Armed Forces on Zarichne (Kirovsk), which was entered by Ukrainian formations, a corridor was broken through. Withdrawal of troops to Torske began through it. After the withdrawal, the bridge over the Zherebets River was blown up.
▪️Torske — Kreminna road is under constant AFU fire control, with Ukrainian manoeuvre groups manoeuvring groups trying to tie up Russian units with combat.
🔻Despite the measures taken by the Russian command, it has at best succeeded in slowing the advance of the Ukrainian forces. It was not possible to turn the tide in the battle for Lyman. On October 1, 2022, after 20 days of heavy fighting, the Russian forces had to abandon the town.

Boris Rhojin

1. Se pare că vor exista anumite concluzii și consecințe, deși majoritatea vor rămâne într-un domeniu non-public.
2. Sprijinul pentru armată în orice caz trebuie să rămână necondiționat, războiul va fi lung și este important ca armata să aibă un spate puternic – atât din punct de vedere economic, cât și moral și politic. După cum am remarcat de mai multe ori, principalele speranțe ale Occidentului în războiul din Ucraina împotriva Rusiei sunt legate de faptul că spatele Rusiei se va sparge dintr-un motiv sau altul și se va repeta situația Primului Război Mondial, când, după o serie de înfrângeri militare și pe fondul celei mai dificile situații socio-economice din țară, elitele conducătoare l-au detronat pe Nicolae al II-lea în cadrul Revoluției din februarie, urmată de un război civil mocnit și alte consecințe binecunoscute. De data aceasta, bolșevicii, care vor trage țara la culmi strălucitoare după asemenea evenimente, nu se văd la orizont.
3. Armata, ca și țara în ansamblu, se va schimba inevitabil în timpul unui lung conflict cu Occidentul, așa cum era înainte de 2022, nu va mai fi. Viața se va schimba. Ceea ce nu se poate adapta va muri în mod natural. Desigur, este foarte de dorit ca procesul de schimbare să fie îndreptat de sus pentru a accelera schimbările necesare.
4. Așteptările actuale sunt legate, evident, de stabilizarea frontului de la periferia Kremennaya și Svatovo, încetarea retragerii și pregătirea trupelor pentru operațiuni ofensive după introducerea unităților reînnoite și a maselor mobilizate, care va asigura necesarul. superioritatea numerică în direcțiile principalelor atacuri, iar apoi plângerile că „ne apărăm eroic împotriva unui inamic superior în număr” sau „atac eroic un inamic superior în număr” par din ce în ce mai ridicole datorită faptului că Rusia are multe potențial de mobilizare de ori mai mare și la începutul războiului avea o mare armata contractuală regulată.

Rybar

Situația în direcția Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog până la sfârșitul zilei de 1 octombrie 2022
Începând de la prânz, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei au intrat în atac în mai multe sectoare ale frontului.
🔻Zona Andreevsky
După asaltul nereușit de ieri asupra satului Davydov Brod, formațiunile ucrainene au lansat o altă ofensivă împotriva pozițiilor Forțelor Armate RF cu sprijinul a câteva zeci de vehicule și blindate.
Artileria și aviația rusă au atacat formațiunile de luptă ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei. În timpul înfrângerii prin foc a uneia dintre coloane, inamicul a aruncat 13 piese de echipament, inclusiv 3 vehicule blindate Kozak și 1 VAB (4x4). Cu toate acestea, cealaltă parte a traversat pontonul, indus prin Ingulets în zona Belaya Krinitsa.
Formațiunile ucrainene încearcă să prindă un punct de sprijin pe capul de pod și să sape într-o plantație forestieră din apropierea râului. Obiectivul suplimentar al Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei este accesul la Davydov Brod dinspre vest pentru a înconjura unitățile ruse din sat.
🔻Olginsky
După-amiaza, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei au atacat din Osokorovka și Petrovka. Există bătălii grele de-a lungul liniei de contact, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei au reușit să ia mai multe poziții ale Forțelor Armate RF.
Unitățile rusești au reușit să distrugă cel puțin două vehicule de luptă ale infanteriei ucrainene și să producă pierderi de forță de muncă, dar atacul inamicului nu slăbește. 
În viitor, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei vor încerca să pună picior pe liniile luate și să dezvolte o ofensivă față de Dudchan.
🔻Zona Posad-Pokrovsky
Seara, formațiunile ucrainene au încercat din nou să asalteze pozițiile Forțelor Armate Ruse din zona Pravdino, unde două grupuri blindate ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei au fost învinse în timpul unei încercări de ofensivă nereușită săptămâna trecută.
De data aceasta, doar câteva unități inamice au participat la atac. Au intrat sub focul artileriei ruse și s-au retras la liniile lor de pornire fără a obține niciun succes.