ISW

Putin announced that Russia’s usual autumn conscription cycle will start a month late on November 1, likely because Russia’s partial mobilization of Russian men is taxing the bureaucracy of the Russian military commissariats that would usually oversee the semi-annual conscription cycle.[3] Putin’s September 30 decree calls for 120,000 Russian conscripts—7,000 fewer than in autumn 2021. Neither Putin’s decree nor subsequent official statements clarified whether Ukrainian civilians of conscription age (18-27) in Russia’s newly-annexed occupied Ukrainian territories will be liable for conscription. A representative of Russia’s Main Organizational and Mobilization Directorate, Rear Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky, claimed that no autumn 2022 conscripts would fight in the “special operation” in Ukraine, a promise Putin also made (and broke) about the autumn 2021 and spring 2022 conscripts.[4] Russian conscripts are not legally deployable overseas until they have received at least four months of training unless Putin were to declare martial law.[5] Russia’s illegal annexation of occupied areas in Ukraine likely removes this problem within the framework of Russian Federation law, which may be part of the reason for Putin’s rush in announcing the annexation.

Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the illegal Russian annexation of four Ukrainian territories on September 30 without clearly defining the borders of those claimed territories.
• Putin announced that Russia’s usual autumn conscription cycle will start a month late on November 1, likely because Russia’s partial mobilization of Russian men is taxing the bureaucracy of the Russian military commissariats that would usually oversee the semi-annual conscription cycle.
• Russian officials could re-mobilize last year’s conscripts when their terms expire on October 1.
• Ukrainian forces will likely capture or encircle Lyman within the next 72 hours.
• Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers in Kherson Oblast but stated that Ukrainian forces continued to force Russian troops into defending their positions.
• Russian troops continued ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Vovchansk-Kupyansk-Izyum-Lyman Line)

Ukrainian forces will likely capture or encircle Lyman within the next 72 hours. Russian forces continued to withdraw from positions around Lyman on September 30 as Ukrainian forces continued to envelop Russian troops in the area.[8] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) officials and Russian war correspondents stated that Russian forces still control Lyman but have withdrawn from their positions in Drobysheve (around 6km northwest of Lyman) and Yampil (about 13km southeast of Lyman).[9] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces still control one road from Lyman to Torske, while Ukrainian forces have cut off the Drobysheve-Torske road in the Stavky area.[10] Russian sources also noted the increasing activity of Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups on the Svatove-Torske highway northeast of Lyman after reportedly crossing the Zherebets River.[11] Geolocated footage also showed Ukrainian artillery striking withdrawing Russian forces near Torske.[12] Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Siverskyi Donets River in Dronivka and are now operating in the forests south of Kreminna.[13] Russian sources uniformly noted that Ukrainian artillery continues to interdict Russian forces’ single remaining egress route on the Kreminna-Torske road.[14]

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are bringing additional reserves to reinforce Russian positions near Lyman, but some milbloggers criticized the Russian military command for failing to learn from its mistakes in Kharkiv Oblast. DNR Head Denis Pushilin claimed that Russian forces continued to deploy additional reserves to hold Lyman on September 30.[15] Russian milbloggers also reported that Russian forces deployed elements of the 503rd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 58th Combined Arms Army near Torske in an effort to break the encirclement in the area, noting that the unit is at least in part composed of newly-mobilized men.[16] Other milbloggers noted that elements of the Western and Central Military districts (WMD and CMD) are operating in the Lyman area alongside the Russian proxy republic units.[17] Many milbloggers claimed that the Russian withdrawal from Lyman resembles the chaotic retreat from Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, in its poor coordination and lack of artillery support.[18] Others stated that the Russian military command did not send necessary reinforcements and are instead firing rockets at Mykolaiv Oblast rather than helping the defense of Lyman.[19] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) only reported striking Ukrainian forces north of Lyman in Ridkodub and did not mention striking Ukrainian forces to the west, east, or south of Lyman.[20]

Ukrainian forces likely continued to make incremental advances around Kupyansk on the eastern bank of the Oskil River on September 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces shelled Petropavlivka (seven kilometers east of Kupyansk), which may indicate that Ukrainian forces are operating in the area.[21]

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military targets in Luhansk Oblast on September 30. Geolocated footage showed the aftermath of Ukrainian reported HIMARS strikes on a television tower and a radio repeater in Starobilsk and at the asphalt plant near Alchevsk that reportedly housed Russian forces.[22]

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Ukrainian military officials maintained their operational silence regarding the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern Ukraine on September 30. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces are continuing to force Russian troops to defend their positions. The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces are continuing to evict civilians in Kherson City to quarter additional Russian reinforcements.[23] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Russian forces are attempting to restore the operations of the Antonivsky Bridge and are bringing additional construction materials and repair equipment to the bridge.[24]

Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign on September 29 and September 30, primarily striking Russian ground lines of communications (GLOCs), positions, and ammunition depots in northern and central Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Ukrainian forces struck Russian military convoys in Nova Kakhovka, a command post in Beryslav Raion, and six Russian concentration areas in Kherson City, Nova Kakhovka, Dariivka, and Nova Kardashinka.[25] Ukrainian military officials added that Ukrainian forces targeted an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) control center in Davydiv Brid on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River.[26] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that a Ukrainian strike on Kherson City killed Russian-appointed Kherson Oblast Deputy Occupation Administration Head Aleksei Katerinchev.[27] Local Telegram channels reported witnessing explosions in Nova Kakhovka, and Ukrainian strikes on the Elektromash factory in Nova Kakhovka and the area of the Kherson City shipyard.[28]

Ukrainian and Russian sources identified two areas of kinetic activity on September 30: south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and around the Ukrainian bridgehead over Inhulets River. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces discovered and repelled a small Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group in Osokorkivka (on the T0403 highway in northern Kherson Oblast), and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces continued to strike Ukrainian positions in Osokorkivka.[29] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also noted conducting unspecified ”successful actions in the area of Davydiv Brid and noted that Ukrainian forces “suppressed a Russian stronghold,” but this language is vague and can mean that Ukrainian troops conducted a ground attack in the area or inflicted bombardment damage on Russian positions.[30] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted a spoiling attack in anticipation of a Ukrainian attack on Davydiv Brid.[31] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault on Bezimenne (southeast of the bridgehead).[32]
Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on September 30 but did not make any confirmed territorial gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults northeast of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske and south of Bakhmut near Vesela Dolyna (6km southeast of Bakhmut), Zaitseve (8km southeast of Bakhmut), Odradivka (9km south of Bakhmut), and Mayorsk (20km south of Bakhmut).[33] Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces conducted ground attacks in Bakhmut itself and near Soledar.[34] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continued routine artillery, air, and missile strikes throughout the line of contact in Donetsk Oblast.[35]
Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts on September 30.[36] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Russian forces struck Mykolaiv City, Zaporizhzhia City, Dnipro City, Nikopol, and Kryvyi Rih on September 30.[37] Ukrainian sources also reported that Russian forces fired Smerch multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) rockets near Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast.[38] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck and destroyed a Russian command post and a Russian S-300 system in Melitopol and struck Russian positions in Tokmak on September 30.[39]

Russian forces continued to use Iranian-made drones to target Ukrainian positions and cities in Southern Ukraine on September 30. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces conducted two Shahed-136 drone attacks on an administrative building and a critical infrastructure facility in Mykolaiv City.[40] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down three Russian Shahed-136 drones in Mykolaiv Oblast and two unspecified loitering munitions—likely also Shahed136 drones—in Odesa Oblast.[41]

Military Land

 Lyman direction

• The Ukrainian Army liberated Drobysheve. Russian troops defending the town retreated to Lyman.
• Ukrainian forces liberated Yampil and are pushing towards Lyman and Zarichne through the forest area.
• Fighting is reported in the vicinity of Terny and Stavky.
• The only exit route from Lyman is within the firing range of UA forces. Russian troops defending Lyman are de-facto surrounded.
• The Ukrainian Army is also advancing north, but the movement is obscured by the fog of war and actual well maintained silence regime by Ukrainian soldiers.

Surse ruse

Rybar

Donbass până la sfârșitul zilei de 30 septembrie 2022
🔻Teritorii de frontieră ale Federației Ruse:
▪️Forțele ucrainene au bombardat satul de graniță Krasnooktyabrsky din districtul Glushkovsky din regiunea Kursk: infrastructura civilă a fost deteriorată.
▪️Nu departe de Belgorod, sistemele rusești de apărare aeriană au doborât un Tochka-U tras de inamic.
🔻Direcția Kharkiv:
Bătăliile de poziție continuă în zona Kupyansk. Linia frontului a fost stabilizată. Avansarea Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei a fost oprită.
🔻Directia Liman:
Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei continuă să dezvolte succese operaționale în sectorul de apărare al trupelor din Districtul Militar de Vest al Forțelor Armate ale Federației Ruse și al Miliției Populare a Republicii Populare Lugansk.
▪️După retragerea din Drobyshevo și Yampol, apărarea Forțelor Armate RF a fost construită de-a lungul periferiei orașului Liman și a zonei tampon din jurul drumului Liman-Zarechnoye-Torskoye. Trupele ruse, din cauza transferului de rezerve, au oprit ofensiva Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei și desfășoară bătălii de manevră în sens invers în direcția Yampol și Stavki. Până la sfârșitul zilei, Miza a fost recapturată.
▪️Grupurile blindate inamice încearcă să avanseze de la Drobyshevo, Stavkov, Dibrovo și Yampol la Liman însuși și Torskoye.
▪️La nord de Zarechny, vehiculele blindate ucrainene au reușit să treacă de-a lungul barajului peste râul Zherebets până în satul Terny, dar au fost alungate de acolo de unitățile care se apropiau ale Forțelor Armate Ruse. Formațiunile ucrainene au fost alungate înapoi pe coasta de vest în Ivanovka. Până la căderea nopții, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei au întreprins un alt raid în satul Terny și Yampolovka.
▪️Forțele armate ale Ucrainei formează o grupare ofensivă și transferă în grabă unități din apropierea Seversk și Soledar, rezerve din Slaviansk și Kramatorsk. Ei trebuie să expună parțial direcția Soledar, unde avansează unități ale PMC Wagner, NM LPR și DPR.
🔻 Direcția Bakhmut (Artemovsk):
▪️Detașamentele de asalt Wagner duc lupte aprige la periferia orașelor Bakhmut și Soledar, precum și în satele Zaitsevo și Otradovka de pe flancul sudic al acestui sector al frontului.
▪️ Brigada 3 a NM a RPD luptă în suburbia Gorlovka, Mayorsk.
🔻Regiunea Luhansk:
Formatiunile ucrainene au atacat infrastructura civila din Severodonetsk, Lisichansk si Kremennaya.
🔻Direcția Donețk:
▪️Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei continuă să bombardeze zonele rezidențiale din aglomerația Donețk din pozițiile din Nevelsky și Avdiivka.
🔻Directia Zaporozhye:
Duelurile de artilerie continuă în regiunea Zaporozhye: Forțele Armate ale RF au suprimat pozițiile inamice în Nikopol și Marganets, de unde inamicul bombardează ZNPP. În satul Andreevka, au fost distruse patru tancuri, două vehicule de luptă de infanterie și o concentrație de forță de muncă APU.
🔻Regiunea Dnepropetrovsk:
▪️Noaptea, Forțele Armate Ruse au distrus cel puțin două depozite de muniții la Dnepropetrovsk cu mai multe lovituri de rachete.

Boris Rhojin

1) Astăzi este o zi istorică în istoria Rusiei și, desigur, aceasta nu este limita. Limita în acest război special va fi acolo unde trupele noastre se opresc. Este ultima linie a frontului care va deveni frontiera de stat pentru o perioadă nedeterminată.
2) În momentul de față, după anexarea a 4 subiecți, sarcina imediată este eliberarea DPR (scopul etapei a 2-a a NWO) și restul regiunii Zaporozhye.
3) Pe viitor, ne putem aștepta la un fel de a treia etapă, unde obiectivele vor fi Nikolaev, Odesa, Harkov, Dnepropetrovsk.
4) În acest sens, este necesară înmulțirea dimensiunii grupării și munca sistematică de distrugere a infrastructurii militaro-logistice și economice a inamicului.