ISW

Key Takeaways                

• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to reject Ukrainian sovereignty in a way that is fundamentally incompatible with serious negotiations.
• A senior Russian official threatened that Russia could target Western commercial satellites supporting Ukraine.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and along the Kreminna-Lysychansk line.
• Russian forces are continuing to make defensive preparations along the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground assaults in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
• The Russian military sent mobilization notices to foreign citizens working in Russia.
• Yevgeny Prigozhin‘s Wagner Group may be further developing its air warfare capabilities and fielding more complex equipment on par with the conventional Russian military.
• Russian and occupation administration officials began seizing residents’ cell phones in Russian-occupied territories to support law enforcement and operational security measures.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on October 27. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked Russian positions in the direction of Mykolaivka and Orlianka, both just east of Kupyansk and about 30km northwest of Svatove.[8] Russian milbloggers circulated footage of Russian forces firing a TOS-1 thermobaric multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) at Ukrainian positions reportedly in the direction of the Svatove-Kreminna highway.[9] The TOS-1 is notably a military-district-level asset, which may indicate either that Russian forces are allocating higher-level artillery systems to this area due to an intent to prioritize operations in this area, or that Russian forces lack sufficient artillery systems or ammunition more appropriate for standard fire missions on the Svatove-Kreminna axis.

Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the Kreminna-Lysychansk line on October 27. The Russian MoD and other Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an attack on Chervonopopivka, 6km northwest of Kreminna.[10] Russian milbloggers reported that elements of the 144th and 3rd Russian motor rifle divisions of the 20th Combined Arms Army repelled Ukrainian attacks toward Kreminna and claimed that the BARS-13 (Russian Combat Reserve of the Country) detachment in this area is concerned about future Ukrainian assaults on Kreminna from multiple directions.[11] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported fighting around Bilohorivka, indicating that Ukrainian offensive operations continue south of Kreminna as well.[12]

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Ukrainian military sources continued to state that Russian forces are conducting defensive operations along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of future Ukrainian advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 27 that Russian troops are fortifying equipment in positions on the east bank of the Dnipro and conducting active aerial reconnaissance.[13] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian forces are continuing to hold their positions and actively threatening Russian troops with artillery fire, forcing Russian forces to conduct active defensive measures.[14]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops conducted limited ground attacks in Kherson Oblast on October 27. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian troops repelled Ukrainian attacks northwest of Kherson City and in western Kherson Oblast.[15] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops are pulling reserves to the Davydiv Brid area in western Kherson Oblast and along the current frontline north of the Beryslav-Nova Kakhovka area.[16]

Ukrainian and Russian sources continued to indicate on October 27 that Ukrainian forces are conducting an interdiction campaign to target Russian concentration areas and military assets in Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian strikes destroyed a Russian concentration area and ammunition depot around Beryslav.[17] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also stated that Ukrainian airstrikes hit Russian air defense forces and equipment in the  Beryslav Raion on October 26.[18] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops launched four HIMARS missiles at Kherson City, all of which Russian air defense intercepted, but ISW has not observed independent confirmation of the strike or of air defense activating over Kherson City on October 27.[19] There is no open-source evidence that Russian forces have ever intercepted a HIMARS munition.

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Bakhmut, northeast of Bakhmut near Soledar (13km northeast of Bakhmut), and south of Bakhmut near Ivanhrad (4km south of Bakhmut) and Mayorsk.[20] A Russian miblogger claimed that Russian forces also conducted an assault northeast of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske (11km northeast of Bakhmut).[21] Russian sources reported that Russian forces currently control Zaitseve (8km southeast of Bakhmut), although ISW cannot independently verify Russian control of the settlement.[22] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks southwest of Avdiivka near Krasnohorivka (23km southwest of Avdiivka) and Mariinka (28km southwest of Avdiivka).[23] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also conducted an assault near Novomykhailivka (37km southwest of Avdiivka).[24] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to conduct routine indirect fire along the line of contact in Donetsk Oblast.[25] Social media sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck fuel tankers at a railway station in Shakhtarsk, Donetsk Oblast with HIMARS MLRS missiles.[26]

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued to conduct routine air, missile, and artillery strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv oblasts on October 27.[27] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City, Nikopol, and Bereznehuvate.[28] Odesa Oblast spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk reported that Russian forces conduct drone attacks with over two dozen Shahed-136 drones in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Vinnytsia oblasts on the night of October 26.[29] Bratchuk reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 15 Shahed-136 drones in Odesa Oblast, three in Mykolaiv Oblast, and one in Vinnytsia Oblast.[30]

Military Land

Briefly:

Russian troops are on defense everywhere but the vicinity of Bakhmut, where they remain focused on reaching the city by any means and by any amount of casualties.

Ukrainian Army successfully defends key points and is slowly advancing in Kherson Oblast.

Svatove direction

• Russian forces attempted to regain lost positions in the vicinity of Nevske. There are conflicting reports regarding the outcome of the attack, but as long as the Russians don’t provide visual proof, we assume it was repelled.

Bakhmut Front

• Fighting continues in Soledar and Bakhmutske.
• Ukrainian defenders repelled Russian attacks towards Bakhmut, Ivanhrad, Andriivka and Kurdyumivka.
• Russian forces assaulted Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Mayorsk. They didn’t succeed and retreated

Donetsk direction

• The enemy attempted to seize control over Kamyanka and approach Avdiivka from the north-east. The defenders repelled the attacks.
• Russian forces attacked towards Nevelske, fighting continues. The situation is uneasy.
• Clashes persist in Marinka settlement. Russian forces are attempting to capture the settlement, but Ukrainian troops are holding them off.
• Ukrainian forces repelled yet another attack in the direction of Novomykhailivka.

Kherson Front

Ukrainian forces, namely the soldiers of 60th Infantry Brigade, entered Pyatykhatky settlement

Surse ruse

Rybar

🔻Regiunea Kiev
▪️La orele nopții, Forțele Armate RF au continuat să lovească în infrastructura energetică a Ucrainei. În timpul unui raid nocturn, UAV-urile kamikaze au lovit autotransformatoare la substația Kiev 750/330/35 kV.
Probabil că substația Belotserkovskaya 330/110/10 kV a devenit, de asemenea, una dintre ținte.
🔻Direcția belarusă (hartă (https://t.me/rybar/40645)):
▪️Comandamentul ucrainean așteaptă o posibilă ofensivă a Forțelor Armate RF din Belarus. În satul Derevnaya, regiunea Minsk, un cetățean al Republicii Belarus transmite Ucrainei date privind mișcarea personalului militar al statului Uniunii.
▪️Sectorul Volyn de pe partea ucraineană a fost întărit de mai multe batalioane antrenate la Centrul 184 de pregătire din Starychi. În vecinătatea Lukov a fost organizat un post de comandă al companiei primei brigăzi de inginerie radio a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei.
▪️Mai multe grupuri de recunoaștere operează în sectorul Kiev din zona Rudnya-Ilyinetskaya și lângă Kriva Gora.
▪️Au fost dislocate mai multe batalioane de apărare teritorială în sectorul Cernigov din vecinătatea Bleshni și Mhov. În centrul de instruire din Desna, grupurile de recunoaștere sunt antrenate sub conducerea mercenarilor britanici.
🔻Direcția Starobelsk (hartă (https://t.me/rybar/40643)):
▪️În sectorul Kupyansky, al 14-lea Ombre al Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei a încercat să asalteze Nikolaevka și Orlyanka, a fost supus unui foc masiv de la MLRS rus, a suferit pierderi de forță de muncă și echipament, apoi s-a retras.
▪️În zona Svatovsky, 1 BTGr din brigada 71 Jaeger a încercat o ofensivă către Cernopopovka, însă, după ce au pierdut mai multe tancuri și vehicule de luptă, s-au retras în pozițiile inițiale.
▪️Pe secția Limansky a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei, forțele brigăzii 25 au încercat să asalteze pozițiile Forțelor Armate Ruse de lângă Torsky, dar nu au reușit. Planurile comandamentului inamic sunt de a conduce o ofensivă simultană de la periferia de nord-est a Terny și la est de Nevsky. În același timp, forțele ucrainene plănuiesc să ajungă la periferia de sud a Kremennaya.
▪️În secțiunea Lisichansky a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei, aceștia au încercat să prindă un punct de sprijin lângă Belgorovka, dar atacul a fost respins, iar inamicul s-a retras la Grigorovka.
🔻Directia Soledar:
▪️Situația nu s-a schimbat în acest sector al frontului, luptele de poziție continuă la periferia lui Bakhmut (Artemovsk), Soledar și Experimentat.
🔻Direcția Donețk:
▪️Formațiunile ucrainene au bombardat din nou așezările aglomerației Donețk, inclusiv Donețk, Makiivka, Yasinovataya și Kashtanovka. În plus, a fost dată o a doua lovitură depozitului de combustibil din Shakhtersk.
🔻Directia Zaporozhye:
▪️Noaptea, Forțele Armate Ruse au lansat mai multe lovituri cu rachete asupra obiectelor Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei din Zaporojie și satul Balakovo din suburbiile capitalei regionale.
▪️Duelurile de artilerie continuă pe toată linia de contact: Forțele Armate Ruse au lucrat la ținte în Orekhovo, Zaliznichny, Olgovsky și Gulyaipole.
🔻Regiunea Dnepropetrovsk
▪️Noaptea, Forțele Armate Ruse au atacat UAV-ul kamikaze Geran-2 de pe teritoriul Uzinei Mecanice Pavlograd, unde a fost stabilită producția de componente pentru muniție și rachete.
🔻Frontul de Sud: direcția Nikolaev-Berislav
(hartă (https://t.me/rybar/40647))
▪️În sectorul Mykolaiv, formațiuni ucrainene au tras în cartierele Zeleny Guy, Ternovy Pod, Kiselevka și Petrovsky.
▪️În sectorul Andreevsky, formațiunile ucrainene transferă echipamente și personal militar pe malul de est al râului Ingulets.
▪️În sectorul Berislav, formațiunile ucrainene concentrează forțele de-a lungul liniei de contact. În zona Novaya Kamenka, un radar ucrainean AN / TPQ-50 a fost desfășurat pentru a desfășura luptă contra bateriei.

RVvoenkor

Armata rusă a intrat în ofensivă pe frontul Svatov-Kremensky, eliberând o serie de așezări
Situația din sectorul fierbinte al frontului Donbass de 2 zile.
▪️26.02 „tvazhnye” și Districtul Militar de Vest au lansat o contraofensivă în sectorul sudic: așezarea a fost eliberată de un transport de trupe blindat. 
Makeevka.
▪️Două grupări tactice de batalion au făcut o manevră giratorie și l-au luat pe N. așezările Nevskoe și Novosadovoe.
▪️Sunt lupte la periferia așezării Terny și Torskoye, grupuri de asalt cu sprijinul tancurilor, împing Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei.
▪️Inamicul a încercat să contraatace din Yampol și Seversk, cu utilizarea activă a MLRS a fost respinsă înapoi.
▪️Forțele armate ale Ucrainei încearcă și ele să-și lupte drumul spre intersecția Krasnoechensekoe-Makeevka-Chervonopopovka. Ei suferă pierderi din cauza incendiilor de mine, obuziere și tancuri. 
▪️Artileria Forțelor Armate RF lovește pozițiile și concentrările inamice de-a lungul întregului front de la Kupyansk la Seversk. 
▪️Proiectile Krasnopol de înaltă precizie sunt acoperite cu obuziere americane M777 ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei. 
▪️Condițiile meteo nefavorabile îngreunează aviația, tocmai în astfel de perioade Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei încearcă să organizeze operațiuni ofensive.