Război în Ucraina. Update ziua 254 – 4.11.2022

ISW pare relativ obiectiv în relatarea evenimentelor, dar face o discretă propagandă pro-Kiev.
Military Land este un site ucrainean care oferă informații și hărți despre armata ucraineană și războiul cu Rusia.
Sursele rusești sunt, evident, partizane.

ISW

Key Takeaways

  • The Russian military is likely trying to use mobilized personnel to restart its Donetsk offensive but will likely fail to achieve operationally significant gains.
  • Russian forces are setting conditions for an orderly withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River to avoid a rout in Kherson Oblast.
  • President Vladimir Putin is likely setting conditions to continue mobilization covertly despite claims that partial mobilization produced sufficient forces.
  • Russia’s costly force generation measures will likely continue to weigh on the Russian economy and generate social tensions.
  • Iran is likely exploiting Russian reliance on Iranian-made weapon systems to request Russian assistance with its nuclear program.
  • Russian forces may be deploying extreme measures against deserting personnel in an attempt to respond to severe morale issues.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.
  • Russian forces continued to prepare existing and new defensive lines in Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna on November 4. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian artillery and aviation repelled Ukrainian forces that attempted to attack northwest of Svatove in the directions of Berestove, Kharkiv Oblast (21km northwest of Svatove) and Kuzemivka, Luhansk Oblast (14km northwest of Svatove).[28] Russian milbloggers reported that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian assault in the direction of Yahidne, Kharkiv Oblast (28km northwest of Svatove).[29] One of the milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces managed to enter Yahidne but that Russian forces later pushed them out of the settlement.[30] The Russian MoD also claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults northwest of Kreminna in the direction of Ploschanka (17km northwest of Kreminna) and Chervonopopivka (6km northwest of Kreminna).[31] A Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups are probing Russian defensive lines northeast of Terny (17km west of Kreminna).[32] ISW cannot independently verify the Russian claims about Ukrainian counteroffensives in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove on November 4.

Russian forces conducted counterattacks in the Kreminna-Svatove area likely to constrain the actions of Ukrainian forces on November 4. The Ukrainian General staff reported that Russian forces shelled settlements southwest of Svatove near Novoyehorivka (16km southwest of Svatove); south of Kreminna near Siversk (18km southwest of Kreminna), Verkhnokamianske (19km south of Kreminna), and Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna); and near Vedmezhe.[33] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also conducted assaults northwest of Kreminna near Nevske (18km west of Kreminna) and Makiivka (22km west of Kreminna).[34] Economist Defense Editor Shashank Joshi claimed on November 3 that a Western official on the Luhansk front stated that there has been a reduction in Russian fighting but that developments in Svatove have the potential to assume operational-level significance.[35]

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Russian forces continued to prepare existing and new defensive lines in Kherson Oblast on November 3 and November 4. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Russian forces are leaving some checkpoints, redistributing personnel and equipment, moving equipment, and equipping new defensive positions, which would be consistent with an ongoing Russian effort to establish fallback positions on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River.[36] Geolocated footage also showed that Russian forces continued to install pillbox fortifications in Nova Kakhovka on the left bank.[37] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces are also strengthening existing lines, which may indicate that the Russians are continuing to reinforce defensive positions in northern Kherson Oblast likely to coordinate a controlled withdrawal. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces still hold checkpoints outside Kherson City and have units operating along the entire frontline, with one milblogger even noting that Russian forces have no military need to withdraw from the city.[38]

Ukrainian and Russian sources did not report significant changes to the situation on the northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast borders as of November 4. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Russian forces continued to use aviation to strike Ukrainian positions, and Russian artillery units continued to shell newly liberated settlements along the line of contact.[39] Ukrainian forces also published a video of a raised Ukrainian flag over Mala Seidemynukha (approximately 61km northeast of Kherson City) on November 3, but the village had likely been liberated prior to the official confirmation.[40] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed striking Ukrainian positions and ammunition depots but did not report ground assaults from either side.[41]

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian transportation nodes and logistics points as part of their ongoing interdiction campaign. Geolocated footage showed that Russian forces are still operating ferry crossings near the barge bridge under the Antonivsky Bridge.[42] The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed an earlier reported strike on an administrative building in Hola Prystan (about 13km southwest of Kherson City) that killed 18 Russian servicemen and wounded two Russians on November 3.[43] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces also struck two ammunition depots in Bashtanka and Snihurivka raions in Mykolaiv Oblast.[44] A Russian milblogger also reported the activation of Russian air defense systems and smoke in the area of the Kherson City shipyard but did not provide visual evidence.[45]

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations around Bakhmut on November 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults northeast of Bakhmut near Verkhnokamianske (28km northeast of Bakhmut) and Spirne (25km northeast of Bakhmut).[46] Russian sources reported that Russian forces made inconsequential advances, 100 meters, against Ukrainian forces near Bakhmut between November 1 and 3.[47] Russian forces continued routine shelling in the Bakhmut area.[48]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka and Donetsk City area on November 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults southwest of Avdiivka near Marinka (28km southwest of Avdiivka) and Novomykhailivka (37km southwest of Avdiivka).[49] Social media video footage posted on November 4 shows Ukrainian forces destroying a column of Russian vehicles and equipment in the vicinity of Opytne (15km northwest of Donetsk City).[50] The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) militia posted a video on November 4 purporting to show the DNR 3rd Guards Brigade striking a Ukrainian manpower and equipment concentration in the direction of Horlivka (about 63km north of Donetsk City).[51] A Russian milblogger claimed on November 4 that the 2nd Reconnaissance Company of the DNR Sparta Battalion cleared Ukrainian positions in the Avdiivka direction near the M-4 highway a few days ago.[52] The source claimed that the Sparta Battalion, DNR Somalia Battalion, and other DNR and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) units successfully repelled Ukrainian attacks in the area.[53] Another Russian milblogger claimed that the 11th DNR Regiment is encircling Avdiivka and will take the settlement.[54] Russian forces continued routine shelling in the Avdiivka area.[55]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast on November 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults southwest of Donetsk City near Pavlivka (45km southwest of Donetsk City) and Vodyane (35km southwest of Donetsk City).[56] A Russian milblogger reported that Russian forces have not taken Pavlivka and that fighting there devolved into small positional battles.[57] A Russian source reported that Russian forces are conducting offensive operations near Prechystivka (55km southwest of Donetsk City) to push Ukrainian forces across the Kashlahach River.[58] The Russian source also claimed that Russian forces conducted a ground assault in the direction of Marinka (24km southwest of Donetsk City) and plans to attack Pervomaiske (20km northwest of Donetsk City) and Vodyane.[59] Russian forces continued routine shelling along the line of contact in southwest Donetsk Oblast.[60]

upporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued routine air, missile, and artillery strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv oblasts on November 4.[61] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City, Nikopol, Mykolaiv City, and Bereznehuvate.[62] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces conducted eight drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and that Ukrainian air defenses shot them all down.[63] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 4 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian manpower and equipment concentration in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast on November 3, wounding 50 Russian servicemen.[64] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported on November 4 that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian S-300 anti-air system in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast on November 2.[65]

Russian forces likely continued to transfer personnel to Zaporizhia Oblast despite reports of poor conditions among personnel there. The Ukrainian advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko reported on November 4 that many Russian military personnel are arriving in Komyshuvate and Demianivka in Donetsk Oblast and that a significant number of newly mobilized personnel in the area are moving to deployments in Zaporizhia Oblast.[66] Andryushchenko reported that Russian military officials have transformed Mariupol into a military logistics hub.[67] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 4 that Russian military personnel in Zaporizhia Oblast have a low level of morale due to poor living conditions, poor equipment, constant delays in financial payments, and contemptuous attitudes of leadership to subordinates.[68] Russian military officials are unlikely to resolve poor conditions and morale among personnel in Zapoirzhia Oblast or elsewhere in Ukraine as they continue to prioritize the quantity of personnel deployed to Ukraine.

Military Land

Briefly:

Russian forces reached the center of Pavlivka town in Donetsk Oblast, but were successfully pushed back by the Ukrainian defenders. Combat activity in the vicinity of Bakhmut and Soledar has decreased as the enemy focuses on the area of Vuhledar and Avdiivka.

Svatove direction

  • The enemy tried to regain lost positions and attacked in the direction of Makiivka and Nevske. Both attack were repelled.

Bakhmut front

  • Ukrainian defenders repulsed a Russian attack towards Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Mayorsk, but they didn’t succeed.

Lysychansk direction

  • Russian troops attacked in the direction of Bilohorivka, but the attempt was repelled.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled yet another Russian attack in the vicinity of Spirne settlement.

Avdiivka front

  • The enemy attack in the vicinity of Avdiivka was repulsed.
  • Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful attack in the vicinity of Vodyane.
  • Russians tried to advance in the direction of Pervomaiske, but were unable to gain new positions and retreated

Donetsk Front

  • Yet another attack towards Novomykhailivka was repelled.
  • Russian forces managed to break through Ukrainian lines and entered Pavlivka settlement, subsequently reaching the center of the town. However, they were unable to hold the positions and were forced to retreat.
  • Ukrainian defenders repulsed a Russian attack in the vicinity of Prechystivka.

Surse ruse

Rybar

rezoluție mare
🔻 Regiunile Belgorod și Kursk
▪️Formațiunile ucrainene au bombardat satele de graniță Tetkino și Gordeevka din regiunea Kursk, distrugând infrastructura civilă și mai multe clădiri rezidențiale.
▪️În regiunea Belgorod, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei au dat mai multe lovituri asupra satului Oktyabrsky, ferestrele au fost sparte în mai multe case de valul de explozie.
🔻Direcția belarusă (hartă (https://t.me/rybar/40871)):
▪️În Starychi din regiunea Lviv, 67 de OMBR sunt în personal și sunt planificate cursuri de pregătire pentru trăgători ai sistemelor de apărare aeriană fabricate din Occident.
▪️În regiunea Cernihiv, instructori occidentali și mercenari străini dotează o poziție în baza centrului de instruire 169 din Desna, care a fost lovit anterior de Forțele Armate Ruse.
▪️Comitetul de Frontieră de Stat al Republicii Belarus a raportat despre interceptarea unei drone ucrainene în regiunea Gomel.
🔻Direcția Starobelsk (hartă (https://t.me/rybar/40868)):
▪️Pe sectorul Kupyansky, unitățile din Ombre al 14-lea al Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei au încercat să atace sectorul Kislovka-Yagodnaya, dar au eșuat și s-au retras, pierzând trei tancuri și mai multe vehicule blindate.
▪️În zona Svatovsky, inamicul își întărește pozițiile și își rotește personalul.
▪️În secția Limansky a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei, aceștia au încercat să asalteze pozițiile Forțelor Armate RF pe direcția Krasnopopovka-Ploșanka, dar s-au retras, căzând sub focul artileriei cu rachete și tun.
▪️În sectorul Lisichansk, artileria rusă a atacat pozițiile 54 Ombr și 80 Oshbr lângă Belogorovka și Serebryanka. Inamicul a evacuat o parte din unități în poziții de rezervă.
🔻Directia Soledar:
▪️Forțele Armate RF înaintează încet de la Otradovka către Andreevka și Kleshcheevka, continuând să acopere Bakhmut (Artemovsk) dinspre sud-vest.
▪️Luptele continuă pentru stația Mayorsk și Mayorskoye de lângă Gorlovka.
🔻Direcția Donețk:
Forțele Armate ale Federației Ruse, folosind UAV-ul Geran-2, au lovit depozitul de muniții al inamicului din apropierea gării Pokrovsk. Un incendiu mare a izbucnit, detonarea muniției a durat câteva ore.
▪️Formațiuni ucrainene au bombardat clădiri rezidențiale din aglomerația Donețk: în Makiivka o femeie a fost ucisă de un HIMARS MLRS, în Donețk un bărbat în vârstă a fost ucis în urma unei rachete AGM-88 HARM. În total, cel puțin 4 persoane au murit în RPD pe zi.
🔻 Direcția Zaporozhye:
▪️Noaptea, Forțele Armate RF au efectuat mai multe lovituri asupra instalațiilor Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei din Zaporojie.
▪️Delurile de artilerie continuă pe linia de contact: Forțele Armate Ruse au bombardat pozițiile inamice la Zaliznichny, Gulyaipole, Orekhovo, Olgovsky și Shcherbak.
🔻Frontul de Sud: direcția Nikolaev-Berislav
(hartă (https://t.me/rybar/40869))
▪️În sectorul Nikolaevsky al Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei, pozițiile rusești au fost bombardate lângă Soldatsky, Krutoy Yar, Ternovy Pod, Novokievka, Lyubomirovka, Komsomolsky și alte așezări.
▪️În sectorul Berislav, grupurile de sabotaj inamice au încercat de mai multe ori să pătrundă în pozițiile avansate ale Forțelor Armate RF de la Trifonovka și Cervonoi. În timpul luptei, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei nu au avut succes și au pierdut până la 30 de luptători și 5 echipamente.

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