Mel Daniels: Reasons for fail of Ukraine fail counter attack

Below will attempt to illustrate the potential challenges Ukraine will face with their anticipated counter attack and why it may fail or fall short (please reference articles on why it might succeed and operational factors on breaching).

The Ukrainian offense might fail or fall short for the following reasons;

1. Ukraine attempts to conduct a breach along a singular axis. In this scenario, Ukraine attempts to breach Russian positions along a single axis, committing the majority of their engineering assets and maneuver enablers to the breach site. Russian forces mass decisive direct and indirect fires, to include tactical ballistic missiles, IVO the breach, and effectively target Ukrainian HVT’s. Russian forces concentrate combat effects at the point of the breach and Ukrainian forces suffer attrition of their HVT’s, thus requiring their breaching operation to be aborted.

Ukrainian forces do not appear to possess sufficient mobile air defense platforms to accompany maneuver units and defend against concentrated and massed IDF/stand off munition strikes against Ukrainian forces attempting to breach.

2. Russian forces establish multiple defensive positions along anticipated axis of attack by Ukrainian forces, which collectively force Ukrainian forces into pre determined areas that are canalized kill zones (EA DEV), this is supported by turning obstacles and counter mobility efforts IVO selected open spaces, maximizing long range engagements by defending forces. As Ukraine breaches, each follow on echelon through the breach will need to overcome subsequent, alternative and supplemental Battle Positions, designed slow, attrit and to canalize attacking forces into specially prepared quasi “Kill Boxes” or more professionally, associated with and through ALSSA. This will then result in Ukrainian forces becoming combat ineffective.
   {Think Purple}.

{Kill Boxes are a US Army/Air Force specialty}.

3. Ukraine attempts multiple breaches to confuse and mitigate Russian massed fires from impeding the breach(s). In this scenario, Ukraine disperses their forces too much and suffer attrition of combat engineering assets which force the operations to be aborted. Russia possesses enough combat power and capacity to simultaneously contest multiple breaching efforts across the entire AO. From long ranged Indirect Fires, to drones, to massed missiles strikes to direct fire and both CCA/CAS, Russian forces are theoretically capable of addressing multiple breach attempts.
4. Ukraine conducts a breach through initial Russian lines and is met with a Russian armored counter attack in conjunction with massed fires and coordinated close air support/close combat aircraft.
5. Ukraine conducts successful breaching operations, and suffers modest casualties, Ukrainian forces continue attack, pushing Russian forces back along a general front, again suffering modest casualties but failing to decisively defeat Russian forces. Russian forces launches limited counter attacks, only temporarily delaying Ukrainian forces. However, the wet terrain and soil reduces Ukrainian mobility and maneuver, Russian forces, are not defeated and their internal lines are still operating effectively. Russian strategy is to delay and force Ukrainian forces to expend more munitions, fuel and material than anticipated, taxing Ukrainian logistical ability and combat trains, forcing their offense to lose momentum and tempo without achieving the decisive victory sought. At this time, Russian forces, employ and decisively commit their mobile reserves for a counter attack in conjunction with tactical aviation against the slowed Ukrainian maneuver forces, forcing their withdraw.
6. Russia elects to conduct tactical nuclear strike(s) at the site of any breach attempt, effectively destroying massed Ukrainian Armor Brigades outside of Ukrainian population centers. Russia knows full well that there will be no military retaliation from NATO forces as a result of Russian strategic nuclear deterrence.

These are some of the scenarios in which Ukraine may fail or fall short on their offense. The above tie directly into the principles of the Offense, Defense, Counter Attack, Breach, Logistics articles written. While not all inclusive of reasons, these are some of the main causes on why an offensive operation may fail.
Time will tell on whether it is a success or not.

Articol preluat de pe grupul DEFENSIONEM, FB.