ISW

Key Takeaways

• Russian siloviki factions continue to voice dissatisfaction with the Russian war effort in Ukraine, likely indicating that President Vladimir Putin will struggle to appease the pro-war faction.
• Direct confrontations between Putin and siloviki members regarding the war in Ukraine illustrate the significance of siloviki factions in Russian power structures.
• Russian officials are likely rhetorically realigning the war in Ukraine with religious ideals ostensibly accessible to both Christians and Muslims to cater to religious and ethnic minorities.
• Russian occupation officials continue to claim that the evacuations in Kherson Oblast are a part of a larger resettlement program.
• Levada polling surveys suggest that the Russian public’s sentiments toward the Russian government have not fundamentally changed despite societal pressures associated with the war in Ukraine.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks west of Svatove and on Kreminna on October 25.
• Russian forces continued to establish fallback and defensive positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.
• Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast.
• The Russian military continues to mobilize personnel in violation of recruitment policies. Russian mobilization efforts also are placing strains on the Russian labor market.
• Ukrainian partisans conducted an attack targeting the occupation head in Russian-occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Oskil River-Kreminna Line)

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops conducted limited ground attacks west of Svatove on October 25. Russian sources claimed that Russian artillery fire repelled Ukrainian forces  during an attempted attack on Kuzemivka, 15km northwest of Svatove.[24] A Russian milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive operations along the Raihorodka-Kovalivka line, about 10km southwest of Svatove.[25] Various Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops are grouping forces west of Svatove for future counteroffensive operations and that Russian forces are strengthening their defensive positions around Svatove.[26] Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai noted that Russian troops mined the entire bank of the Krasna River near Svatove, apparently in anticipation of potential Ukrainian advances.[27]

Russian sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted an unsuccessful frontal assault on Kreminna on October 25.[28] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops repelled the attack.[29] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack on Bilohorivka, about 10km south of Kreminna, suggesting that Russian troops are continuing efforts to retake lost positions along the Donetsk-Luhansk Oblast border.[30]  

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Russian forces continued to establish fallback positions near the Dnipro River on October 25. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are preparing defensive positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and are mining the coastline near Hornostaivka, about 40km northeast of Nova Kakhovka.[31] The Ukrainian General Staff added that Russian forces are leaving small passages for a potential retreat and are attempting to repair destroyed pontoon crossings.[32] Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian military command has not decided on the fate of Kherson City, given the ongoing situation in Kherson Oblast.[33] Other milbloggers argued that Russian forces will be unable to hold Kherson City and that the Russian government can prevent a “Battle of Stalingrad” by fully withdrawing to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.[34]

Ukrainian and Russian sources provided limited insight into the situation on the frontlines in Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated that Ukrainian forces repelled two small-scale assaults by a platoon and a detachment in two unspecified areas on October 24.[35] Ukrainian military officials also reported that Russian forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions along the line of contact and struck Nova Kamianka in northern Kherson Oblast.[36] Ukrainian forces also reportedly shot down two Iranian-made Shahed-131 drones in Kherson Raion.[37] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks in the direction of Ishchenka and Bruskinske in northern Kherson Oblast.[38] Geolocated footage also showed Ukrainian artillery striking a Russian tank in Kalynivske, approximately 47km northwest of Nova Kakhovka.[39]

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian positions and logistics in Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that a recent precision strike on Kairy (about 27km northeast of Nova Kakhovka) killed up to 30 Russian servicemen and left over 100 troops under the rubble.[40] Recent combat footage seems to confirm this report and indicates that the strike likely hit Chechen forces.[41] The Ukrainian General Staff added that Ukrainian forces also destroyed an ammunition depot in Hornostaivka.[42] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian forces struck three ammunition depots in Beryslav and Kakhovka raions, and shot down three Russian attack helicopters.[43] Ukrainian sources published footage of explosion sounds in Khakovka Raion on October 25.[44]

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued to conduct unsuccessful ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 25. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Bakhmut itself; northeast of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske (11km northeast of Bakhmut), Soledar (13km northeast of Bakhmut), Bilohorivka (23km northeast of Bakhmut), Verkhnokamianske (33km northeast of Bakhmut), and Spirne (30km north of Bakhmut); and south of Bakhmut near Ivanhrad (4km southeast of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[45] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks southwest of Avdiivka near Mariinka (28km southwest of Avdiivka) and Nevelske (15km south of Avdiivka).[46] The Donetsk Peoples Republic (DNR) People’s Militia announced on October 25 that the “battle for Avdiivka is in full swing” and Russian forces intend to encircle Avdiivka.[47] Russian forces are unlikely to encircle Avdiivka given the poor performance of Russian offensives near Avdiivka since the beginning of the war. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian operational encirclements of Avdiivka and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast are impossible as recent Russian offensives in the areas illustrate that Russian forces are unable to make rapid advances.[48] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to conduct indirect fire along the line of contact in Donetsk Oblast on October 25.[49]

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen units continue to play an outsized role in Russian operations in Donetsk Oblast. Kadyrov claimed on October 25 that Chechen State Duma Deputy Adam Delimkhanov has directly coordinated the actions of Chechen forces fighting in Donetsk Oblast since the start of the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine.[50] Kadyrov also claimed that “Akhmat” special forces are directly responsible for more than 100km of territory in Donetsk Oblast.[51] Kadyrov repeated claims that the Russian military leadership routinely praises Chechen elements for their fighting in eastern Ukraine.[52] Kadyrov and associates will continue to try to frame Chechen elements as significant formations among the Russian forces fighting in Donetsk Oblast.

Military Land

Briefly:

Ukrainian Army advanced closer towards Svatove and liberated two settlements. The situation south of Bakhmut remains complicated, but it’s not critical, as some Russian forces are trying to paint out. Ukrainian defense lines are holding.

Russian forces probed Ukrainian defense in the northern part of Kharkiv and attacked Zemlyanky and Chuhunivka settlements. Ukrainian defense was ready to meet them and repelled the attacks.

Sloboda Front

Svatove direction

• Ukrainian forces liberated Miasozharivka and Karmazynivka settlements.
• Ukrainian General Staff also confirmed liberation of Novosadove and Nevske.

Bakhmut Front

• The enemy continue to attack Ukrainian positions in Soledar and Bakhmutske.
• Fighting continues on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut. Russian forces, if they advance by a few meters, are unable to hold the positions and the gains are quickly reversed by Ukrainian reinforcements.
• Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in the direction of Ivanhrad, Klishchiivka and Andriivka.
• Ukrainian command deployed elements of 62nd Mechanized Brigade south of Bakhmut to help stabilize the situation.

Siverskyi Donets

Lysychansk direction

• Russian troops attacked Ukrainian positions in the area of Spirne. The attack was repulsed.
• The enemy tried to advance towards Bilohorivka in order to seize more favorable positions. They weren’t successful.
• Ukrainian troops managed to repel a Russian assault towards Verkhnokamyanske.

Donetsk Front

Donetsk direction

• The enemy attacked towards Avdiivka, Pervomaiske and Nevelske. A complicated situation remains in the vicinity Pervomaiske, where Russian troops are able to advance by a few meters every day.
• Ukrainian defenders repelled Russian attacks in the vicinity of Marinka and towards Novomykhailivka.

Surse ruse

Rybar

🔻Teritorii de frontieră ale Federației Ruse:
▪️În regiunea Belgorod, formațiuni ucrainene au tras asupra clădirilor civile din satele de graniță Tishanka și Verigovka. Nu s-au înregistrat victime în rândul civililor.
🔻Direcția Starobelsk (hartă (https://t.me/rybar/40576)):
▪️În sectorul Kupyansky, comandamentul ucrainean al OMB al 14-lea a efectuat o rotație a personalului, ca parte a pregătirilor pentru o ofensivă împotriva pozițiilor trupelor ruse din apropierea satului Kislovka.
▪️În sectorul Svatovski, unități ale transportoarelor blindate de trupe ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei au făcut o încercare nereușită de a ataca pozițiile Forțelor Armate Ruse din apropierea satului Kuzemovka. Inamicul s-a retras în pozițiile inițiale, pierzând un tanc și trei vehicule blindate.
▪️În sectorul Limansky, grupurile de asalt ucrainene din 66 Ombr, împreună cu rezerva de tancuri, au atacat cetățile trupelor rusești din zona Nevsky. Trupele ruse au respins atacul, distrugând trei tancuri, două vehicule de luptă de infanterie, un transportor blindat și trei camionete APU.
▪️În sectorul Lisichansk, comanda Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei a efectuat transferul de rezerve pentru a compensa pierderile suferite în timpul încercărilor eșuate de asaltare a pozițiilor Forțelor Armate RF în direcția Belogorsk.
🔻Directia Soledar:
▪️Nu sunt schimbări semnificative în prima linie, unități ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei au încercat să disloce detașamentele PMC „Wagner” de pe teritoriul fabricii de asfalt de la periferia estică a lui Bakhmut. În același timp, luptele aprige continuă în vecinătatea cu Experienced.
🔻Regiunea Luhansk:
▪️Formațiuni ucrainene au tras din HIMARS MLRS Zolote-2 și Svatovo și, de asemenea, au lovit cu tunurile de artilerie în satul Krasnorechenskoye. Au fost avariate clădirile de locuințe și infrastructura civilă. Printre civili sunt răniți și un mort.
🔻Direcția Donețk:
▪️Unități ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei au bombardat Donețk, Makeevka, Dokuchaevsk, Krasny Partizan, Kashtanovoe și alte așezări ale aglomerației. Pentru a distruge sistemele radar și de apărare aeriană din Donețk, formațiunile ucrainene au folosit racheta antiradar americană AGM-88 HARM, care a explodat în aer.
🔻 Direcția Zaporozhye:
▪️Nu au existat schimbări semnificative în prima linie în ultima zi: bombardarea reciprocă are loc de-a lungul întregii linii de contact.
▪️Dimineața, la Melitopol a avut loc un atac terorist: o mașină bombă a explodat în apropierea clădirii companiei de televiziune și radio ZaTV. Șase jurnaliști și civili au fost răniți, inclusiv o fată de 12 ani.
▪️Forțele Armate RF au atacat pozițiile de tragere ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei în zona Nikopol și Marganeț, de unde sunt bombardate în mod regulat Energodar și CNE Zaporojie.
🔻Frontul de Sud: direcția Nikolaev-Berislav
▪️Comandamentul ucrainean continuă să se pregătească pentru ofensiva pe toată linia frontului.
▪️Delurile de artilerie non-stop au loc pe tot parcursul zilei pe site-ul Nikolaev. Pentru a desfășura luptă contra bateriei în Kirovo și Limany, au fost desfășurate radare AN / TPQ-36.
▪️Pe secțiunea Andreevsky a DRG, brigada 46 aeronautică a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei a încercat să prindă un punct de sprijin în zona Ișcenko. Focul de artilerie a condus grupul înapoi la pozițiile inițiale.
▪️Mai multe suporturi de artilerie autopropulsate, inclusiv tunuri autopropulsate Krab de 155 mm, au fost dislocate în sectorul Berislav din vecinătatea Novaya Kamenka.
AFU Offensive in Starobilsk direction Chronicle of Battles, October 21-25, 2022
▪️Having been defeated in the battles for Horobivka, the Ukrainian units turned to defense north of Kupyansk. Territorial defense units were redeployed to the front lines. After repeated attempts to storm the heights in the Kyslivka — Orlyanske area, the AFU was tasked with flanking the fortified area. 
▪️Having carried out contact reconnaissance, the AFU attempted to take Russian positions in Pervomaiske — Orlyanske and Berestove — Kuzemivka sections.
▪️The direction of the AFU main attack was from Makiivka in the direction of Chervonopopivka. On October 21, up to three Ukrainian 66th Separate Brigade’s battalion task groups, reinforced with armored vehicles, attempted to break the defense line of the Russian 20th Army and reach the road Svatove — Kreminna, but the attempt failed.
For two days, Ukrainian units kept trying to consolidate on the heights between Makiivka and Chervonopopivka, but were forced to retreat under artillery fire, suffering heavy losses in manpower and equipment. 
▪️Ukrainian units failed to expand the staging point towards Nevske. After 4 days of fighting, the AFU units lost their offensive potential. Now they stsand in need of rotation and reinforcements. 
▪️The territorial defense units in the AFU rear near Borova and Kupyansk suffered significant losses from the Russian Armed Forces’ artillery fire. 
▪️The AFU command moved a reserve of mercenary units and Western PMCs to Lyman to task less Ukrainian units and replenish the advancing group. 
🔻Most likely, in the future, Ukrainian units will try to occupy heights at the Kyslivka — Orlyanske line and reach Verkhnya Duvanka with a subsequent breakthrough to Belgorod region borders and block the supply of the Russian Armed Forces in Svatove.