Război în Ucraina. Update ziua 29 – 29.11.2022

ISW pare relativ obiectiv în relatarea evenimentelor, dar face o discretă propagandă pro-Kiev.
Military Land este un site ucrainean care oferă informații și hărți despre armata ucraineană și războiul cu Rusia.
Sursele rusești sunt, evident, partizane.


Russian forces made marginal gains around Bakhmut on November 29, but Russian forces remain unlikely to have advanced at the tempo that Russian sources claimed. Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces made marginal advances southeast of Bakhmut but ISW remains unable to confirm most other claimed gains around Bakhmut made since November 27.[1] Some Russian milbloggers made unsubstantiated claims that Russian forces broke through the Ukrainian defensive line south of Bakhmut along the T0513 highway to advance towards Chasiv Yar, which would cut one of two remaining main Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Bakhmut, but such claims are likely part of a continuing Russian information operation and are premature, as ISW has previously assessed.[2] ISW continues to assess that the degraded Russian forces around Bakhmut are unlikely to place Bakhmut under threat of imminent encirclement rapidly.[3]

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces made marginal gains around Bakhmut on November 29, but Russian forces remain unlikely to have advanced at the tempo that Russian sources claimed.
  • The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russian forces have likely stopped deploying battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in the past three months, supporting ISW’s prior assessments.
  • Russian forces continued to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations around Svatove as Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations around Svatove and Kreminna.
  • Russian forces continued limited ground attacks west of Kreminna to regain lost positions.
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Siversk and Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces continued strengthening defensive positions in eastern Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian forces continued striking Russian force concentrations in southern Ukraine.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian forces continued efforts to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations northwest of Svatove on November 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued standard defensive operations in the Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, direction.[9] Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Synehybov amplified reports that Russian forces are conducting constant artillery attacks on Ukrainian positions in Kupyansk but stated that Ukrainian forces are holding the line and repelling Russian forces.[10] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack in Ivanivka (22km southeast of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces struck Ukrainian control points in Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk) and Berestove (26km southeast of Kupyansk).[11]

Ukraine continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna on November 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian concentration area in Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, which Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai claimed was a deployment point and ammunition depot.[12] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a massive shelling of Svatove and unsuccessfully attempted to break through Russian defensive lines to the Svatove-Kreminna highway.[13] Miroshnik additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to probe Russian defenses in Kuzemivka, 13km northwest of Svatove.[14] Russian sources continued to claim that Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian attacks in this area.[15] A Russian source claimed that Ukraine is accumulating forces in Kharkiv Oblast to possibly resume an offensive against Svatove and Starobilsk.[16] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Novoselivske (14km northwest of Svatove), while Russian sources claimed that Russian forces seized Novoselivske.[17] A Russian source stated that Russian forces began offensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line and conjectured that operations will intensify in the coming days as the weather improves.[18] Ukrainian troops additionally continue to target Russian rear areas in Luhansk Oblast along critical ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and hit a concentration area in Luhutyne, just southwest of Luhansk City along the H21.[19]

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks west of Kreminna to regain lost positions on November 29. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued standard offensive operations in the Lyman direction, and the Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces thwarted a Ukrainian attack towards Chervonopopivka (6km northwest of Kreminna).[20]  The Ukrainian General Staff also noted that Russian troops continued efforts to attack Bilohorivka, 10km south of Kreminna.[21]

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued to make limited gains around Bakhmut amid reports of heavy fighting in the area on November 29. Geolocated footage posted on November 29 shows that Russian forces advanced on the southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut.[22] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled attacks northeast of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske along the T1302 highway and near Soledar.[23] Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) officials claimed that Russian forces captured Ozarianivka (15km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut) on November 29.[24] Russian milbloggers reiterated claims that Russian forces advanced southwest of Bakhmut, taking Andriivka, Ozarianivka, and  Zelenopillia (13km south of Bakhmut), and that Wagner forces captured Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut).[25] Various Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces established control over the Siverskyi-Donets-Donbas canal (13km southwest of Bakhmut), which directly impacts the water supply to Horlivka and Yasynuvata, on November 29.[26] Russian milbloggers also circulated unverified claims that Russian forces broke through the Ukrainian line at the T0513 highway to Chasiv Yar—part of the Ukrainian GLOC—which ISW assesses is unlikely.[27]  A Russian milblogger also claimed that Russian forces made progress in Opytne (4km south of Bakhmut) and began a ground attack on Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) on November 29.[28] Ukrainian Donetsk Oblast Head Pavlo Kyrylenko reported that Russian forces struck near Chasiv Yar, Paraskoviivka, Yakovlivka, and the Maiorska station of the Svitlodarsk hromada through the night of November 28 and 29.[29]  Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian advances south of Bakhmut moved Russian forces closer to operationally encircling Bakhmut and a further offensive in the direction of Toretsk.[30] A Russian milblogger prematurely called this operational offensive around Bakhmut the first victory since the capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk; however, there is no evidence that Russian forces currently threaten key Ukrainian logistics lines into Bakhmut and ISW continues to assess that Bakhmut is currently not under threat of Russian encirclement.[31]

Russian forces increased offensive operations northeast of Bakhmut around Siversk and Soledar on November 29, likely trying to capitalize on increased morale from claimed Russian successes around Bakhmut. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled attacks near Serebrianka, Verkhnokamianske, Berestove, Bilohorivka, and Yakolivka, all within 35km northeast of Bakhmut.[32] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are conducting offensive operations against fierce opposition along the T1302 near Bilohorivka and Yakolivka.[33] Some Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses and that Russian forces took Spirne and advanced through Verkhnokamiankse toward Siversk, but Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin refuted this claim and stated that fighting is ongoing in Spirne.[34] Prominent Russian milbloggers claimed that there are no significant changes in control of terrain near Soledar.[35]

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces experienced successes around Avdiivka on November 29. Russian sources boasted of heavy Ukrainian causalities and minor operational successes around Avdiivka and Marinka on November 29.[36] One prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces control more than two-thirds of Marinka and boasted that Russian forces are succeeding in this area for the first time in eight years.[37] Another Russian milblogger, however, admitted that the pace of Russian advance in this area is slow.[38]  Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Pervomaiske, Nevelske, and Krasnohorivka.[39] Russian forces continued routine strikes along the line of contact in Eastern Ukraine on November 29.[40]

Military Land

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Surse ruse


🔻 Teritoriile de frontieră ale Federației Ruse:
▪️Formațiunile ucrainene au tras cu mortare în satele de graniță Lomakovka și Maritsa din regiunea Bryansk. Ambele sate au fost dezenergizate, pensionarul a avut de suferit.
▪️Inamicul a atacat și ținte civile în Tetkino și districtul Sudzhansky din regiunea Kursk, după care o parte a municipalității a rămas fără alimentare cu energie.
▪️În regiunea Belgorod, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei au bombardat Shebekino, Murom și Novaya Tavolzhanka, nimeni nu a fost rănit.
🔻Direcția Starobelsk:
▪️În sectorul Kupyansky, inamicul a încercat să atace în vecinătatea Ivanovka, însă, căzut sub focul de artilerie grea al Forțelor Armate RF, a fost nevoit să se retragă.
▪️În sectorul Liman, formațiunile ucrainene au încercat să reia ofensiva în direcția Krasnopopovka, dar și au eșuat.
🔻Direcția Slaviansk :
▪️Trupele de racete și artileria ruse au efectuat mai multe atacuri asupra instalațiilor Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei din Slaviansk și Kramatorsk.
🔻Direcția Soledar (hartă (https://t.me/rybar/41575)):
▪️La sud de Bakhmut (Artemovsk), detașamentele PMC Wagner și unitățile RPD NM au reușit să dezvolte ofensiva, au ocupat Kurdyumovka și au ajuns la canalul Seversky Doneț-Donbass.
▪️În sectorul Bakhmut, inamicul își consolidează pozițiile în zona Kleshcheevka din împrejurimile sudice ale lui Bakhmut.
Pentru a preveni prăbușirea apărării, inamicul transferă subunități suplimentare în sector.
▪️Luptele au loc în vecinătatea Belogorovka pe sectorul Lisichansky. Comandamentul Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei a trimis o companie de 81 oambr la Serebryanka.
🔻Republica Populară Lugansk:
▪️Armata ucraineană a bombardat din nou Svatovo, o femeie a murit, casele au fost avariate.
🔻Direcția Donețk:
▪️Forțele armate ale Ucrainei au continuat să lovească în orașele din aglomerația Donețk: Donețk, Gorlovka, Yasinovataya, Zaitsevo, Kashtanovo, Kvashino și Panteleimonovka au fost lovite.
🔻Regiunea Dnepropetrovsk:
▪️Trupele ruse au lucrat la ținte în Nikopol, comunitatea Marganets și Malomikhailovka.

Ria Novosti

▪️ Forțele Armate Ruse au distrus peste 70 de militari ucraineni în regiunea LPR și Harkov într-o zi, două atacuri ale trupelor ucrainene au fost dejucate, a informat Ministerul Apărării;
▪️ Țările NATO discută despre furnizarea de sisteme de rachete antiaeriene Patriot către Ucraina, a declarat secretarul general al NATO Stoltenberg;
▪️ Medvedev a avertizat că dacă NATO va livra complexe Patriot la Kiev, acestea vor deveni o țintă legitimă a Forțelor Armate RF;
▪️ Statele Unite nu intenționează încă să furnizeze Kievului sistemele de apărare aeriană Patriot, a declarat un oficial al Pentagonului. De asemenea, americanii nu sunt încă pregătiți să furnizeze avioane de luptă Ucrainei și nu includ această problemă în lista priorităților lor imediate;
▪️ Nu sunt posibile negocieri cu Ucraina acum, pentru că Kievul le neagă absolut, a spus Peskov;
▪️ O delegație militară ucraineană a vizitat Israelul săptămâna trecută pentru a căuta sprijin în domeniul apărării, a informat presa israeliană;
▪️ Polonia nu va oferi Ucrainei sistemele sale de apărare aeriană Patriot, a spus premierul republicii;
▪️ Șeful Ministerului de Externe leton a spus că Kievului „trebuie să i se permită” să atace locurile unde sunt bazate rachetele, care lovesc infrastructura critică a Ucrainei, și să nu se teamă de escaladare.

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