Război în Ucraina. Update 10 Agust 2022

ISW

Ukrainian officials framed the August 9 attack in Crimea as the start of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south, suggesting that the Ukrainian military expects intense fighting in August and September that could decide the outcome of the next phase of the war. A Ukrainian official told Politico on August 10 that “you can say this is it” when asked about the start of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive.[1] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vaguely noted on August 10 that the war “began with Crimea and must end with Crimea – with its liberation.”

Key Takeaways

  • Russian officials remain confused about the August 9 attack on the Saki Air Base in Russian-occupied Crimea, over 225km behind Russian lines, which destroyed at least eight Russian aircraft and multiple buildings.
  • The Kremlin’s changing plans suggest that occupying forces are most likely to move up the date of the annexation referenda in occupied Ukraine. Annexation makes it harder to imagine any negotiated settlement to the war on any terms that Ukraine or the West could accept, demonstrating that the Kremlin is fundamentally unserious about ending the war on any terms short of a Ukrainian surrender.
  • Iran reportedly began training Russian forces on Iranian UAV systems in recent weeks, demonstrating the deepening military cooperation between Iran and Russia.
  • Russian forces conducted ground attacks west of Izyum.
  • Russian forces continued limited ground assaults northeast and west of Bakhmut and likely made marginal gains in these areas.
  • Russian forces made marginal gains northwest of Donetsk City and are continuing attempts to push northwestward from current footholds on the outskirts of Donetsk City.
  • Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful offensives north and northeast of Kharkiv City.
  • Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force operation in northwestern Kherson Oblast
  • Russia’s Oryol Oblast is reportedly forming a volunteer battalion.

Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks west of Izyum on August 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted ground attacks near Husarivka (33km northwest of Izyum) and Velyka Komyshuvakha (21km southwest of Izyum).[22] Russian forces did not conduct any ground attacks northwest of Slovyansk and continued to shell settlements near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border on August 10.[23]

Russian forces did not conduct any ground attacks around Siversk and shelled Ukrainian positions in and around Siversk on August 10.[24]

Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut and made partial gains to the south and northeast of Bakhmut on August 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attempted to push north from positions around Novoluhanske (about 18km southeast of Bakhmut) and tried to advance around Kodema (about 11km southeast of Bakhmut).[25] Russian sources are additionally escalating claims of territorial control south of Bakhmut. The Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) claimed that DNR troops are working to clear Hladosove, about 16km south of Bakhmut.[26] Russian troops also reportedly conducted ground assaults northeast of Bakhmut in Yakovlivka (about 13km northeast of Bakhmut) and made marginal advances on the territory of the Bilokamyanskyi refractory plant in Soledar (about 8km northeast of Bakhmut).[27] Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes around Bakhmut and will likely continue efforts to advance directly on Bakhmut from the north, east, and south.[28]

Russian forces continued ground attacks in order to push northwestward from the outskirts of Donetsk City on August 10. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops attempted to push towards Avdiivka from Mineralne and Spartak, both on the northern outskirts of Donetsk City and within 5km southeast of Avdiivka.[29] Russian sources reported that Russian troops advanced into Krasnohorivka, about 16km north of Donetsk City.[30] Russian forces are additionally continuing to complete the seizure of Pisky, about 6km northwest of Donetsk City.[31] Russian troops will likely continue efforts to leverage recently-gained footholds northwest of Donetsk City in order to continue pushing the line of contact away from Donetsk City.

Link sursă foto

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces conducted multiple unsuccessful offensive operations along the Kharkiv City Axis on August 10. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance to Petrivka, approximately 32km northeast of Kharkiv City, and in the Veterynarne-Udy direction, approximately 56km north of Kharkiv City.[32] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces focused on conducting aerial reconnaissance and improving logistical support for units in the Kharkiv City direction.[33] Russian forces continued shelling settlements to the north and northeast of Kharkiv City.[34]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault in northwestern Kherson Oblast on August 10. Ukrainian military officials reported that a Russian airborne assault platoon attempted a reconnaissance-in-force operation in Lozove, on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River and near the Ukrainian bridgehead.[35] Russian forces launched airstrikes on Andriivka, Olhine, and Novohryhorivka, all situated along the Kherson Oblast administrative border.[36] Russian forces have also continued artillery fire along the line of contact in Kherson Oblast.[37] Russian forces fired 80 Grad missiles at Nikopol and Marganets (both across the Dnipro River from Russian-occupied positions in Zaporizhia Oblast), and the Nikopol City Head Yevhen Yevtushenko described the night of the shelling as ”the worst night since February 24.”[38] Russian forces continued to target Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia cities and their surrounding areas.[39]

Ukrainian officials confirmed destroying two Russian positions in southern Kherson Oblast, situated 100 and 170km south of the nearest frontline. Ukrainian military officials confirmed that they have struck a Russian ammunition depot in Novooleksiivka in the Henichensk district, north of the Kherson Oblast-Crimea border.[40] ISW has previously reported that local officials and social media users reported a large smoke cloud in Noovoleksiivka on August 9.[41] Ukrainian forces also struck a battalion tactical group (BTG) command post of the Russian 217th Guards Airborne Regiment in the Maksyma Horkoho village, approximately 30km west of the Crimean northwestern border.[42] Both settlements are located outside of the US-provided HIMARS range and may indicate that Ukrainian forces are using or have modified other weapons already in their possession to attack Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) on the Southern Axis.

Military Land

Day summary:

The situation didn’t change during the last two days. Russian army remains focused on the vicinity of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Kharkiv front reports increased combat activity of Russian troops, but Ukrainian forces were ready to meet them and repel all attacks.

Large explosions occurred at Novofedorivka base in occupied Crimea. We don’t know yet the cause of the explosions, but we know for sure it caused panic among the Russian population located on the occupied peninsula. Russian air force lost several planes during the explosions, as it can be seen on the released satellite images.

Kharkiv & Chuhuiv direction

  • Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack towards Udy from the direction of Veterynarne.
  • The enemy tried to advance and capture new positions near Petrivka. The attack was repulsed.
  • Fighting continues in the area of Husarivka, where Russian forces are pushing from the occupied Bayrak.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled a breakthrough attempt in the area of Velyka Kmyshuvkha. The enemy retreated.

Bakhmut front

  • Ukrainian troops repelled yet another attack towards Yakovlivka.
  • House to house fighting continues in Soledar. Russian forces managed to capture an industrial complex on the eastern part of the town.
  • The enemy advanced closer to Pidhorne, but haven’t yet reached the settlement itself.
  • Russia continues to attack Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Bakhmut.
  • Russian troops attacked Ukrainian troops in Kodema, but without success and retreated.
  • The enemy captured Hladosove settlement west of Travneve.
  • Clashes are reported from Zaitseve (the southern one). According to Russian sources, the troops managed to capture the southern part of the town.

Slovyansk direction

  • Russian recon element tried to seize Ukrainian positions near Ivano Darivka, but didn’t succeed.
  • The enemy attempted to mount an offensive operation in the vicinity of Spirne, but Ukrainian forces revealed the attempt.
  • Russians released a video from the center of Berestove. It seems that Russian forces in full control of the settlement

Donetsk Oblast

  • Russians launched another series of attacks towards Avdiivka, actively used aviation to strike Ukrainian positions in the area. Despite the air superiority, Russian forces were unable to advance and reach the outskirts.
  • Russian army have attempted to restore its offensive in Pisky. Both sides reported fighting in the village.
  • The enemy assaulted towards Krasnohorivka. Ukrainian forces, with the help of artillery, repelled the attack

Kherson front

  • Russian troops attacked Ukrainian positions near Lozove. The attack was repelled.

CNN

  • At least two explosions on Tuesday destroyed at least seven Russian aircrafts at an air base in Russian-annexed Crimea, a new satellite image from Planet Labs shows.
  • The cause of the explosion is still unknown. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense says it could not determine the cause, while the Russian Ministry of Defense said the blasts were caused by detonated aviation ammunition but did not reveal how it had been detonated.
  • A satellite image from Aug. 9 shows several fighter jets sitting inside earthen berm bays in the Saki Air Base. The satellite image from Aug. 10, after the explosion, shows the charred remains of at least seven aircrafts in the earthen berms. 
  • The fate of the aircraft sitting on the flightline is unclear from the satellite image. Additional aircraft on the flightline and tarmac appear unharmed.
  • At least four craters are seen in this area of the base. In the area around the earthen berms and flightline, there is a noticeable burn mark and scarred vegetation.

Al Jazeera

  • One person was killed when a Russian airbase in the annexed Crimean peninsula was rocked by blasts that Moscow said were detonations of stored ammunition, not the result of any attack.
  • In the northern town of Bucha, 15 bodies were buried after they were found four months after Russian forces withdrew from the area. The local mayor said all the people who were shot and exhumed from a mass grave had torture marks on them.
  • The head of Ukraine’s state nuclear power firm warned of the “very high” risks of shelling at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the Russian-occupied south and said it was vital Ukrainian forces regain control over the facility in time for winter.
  • Russia has “almost certainly” established a new ground-forces formation to support its operations in Ukraine, the United Kingdom’s defence ministry said.

Sky News

  • Russia must „immediately hand back full control” of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, G7 foreign ministers said today. 
  • In a statement, minsters from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US, said they remained „profoundly concerned” by the serious threat that the seizure of the nuclear facilities by Russian forces posed.
  • They also said it undermined the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) ability to monitor peaceful nuclear activities for safeguarding purposes.

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