ISW

Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely announce the Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory on September 30 after Russian officials completed their falsified “referenda” on September 27.
• Russian forces are reportedly committing newly-mobilized Western Military District (WMD) men to the Kherson and Kharkiv Oblast frontlines without prior training.
• Ukrainian forces are consolidating their positions on the eastern bank of the Oskil river and made further gains on the outskirts of Lyman.
• Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) as part of the southern counter-offensive interdiction campaign, particularly disrupting Russian efforts to build barge crossings.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations around Bakhmut and west of Donetsk City, increasingly leveraging penal units.
• Russian forces inflicted severe damage on a Ukrainian airfield in Kryvyi Rih and continued routine air and missile strikes across southern Ukraine.
• Russian authorities are establishing checkpoints at Russia’s borders to forcibly mobilize Russian men who are seeking to avoid forced mobilization by fleeing the country.
• Russian officials are setting conditions to forcibly mobilize or conscript Ukrainian civilians in soon-to-be annexed areas of occupied Ukraine.
• The Russian annexation of occupied Donetsk and Luhansk will likely exacerbate tensions within DNR and LNR forces, who regularly mutiny when asked to fight outside the borders of their own oblasts.
• Russian officials may attempt to reframe their invasion of Ukraine and occupation of soon-to-be-annexed Ukrainian territory as a “counterterrorism operation.”

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Vovchansk-Kupyansk-Izyum-Lyman Line)

Ukrainian forces conducted operations to consolidate their positions on the eastern bank of the Oskil River north of Kupyansk on September 27. Ukrainian officials confirmed that Ukrainian forces liberated Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (just east of Kupyansk), which reportedly serves as one of the largest railway nodes in Kharkiv Oblast.[11] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces also continued to advance in the direction of Tavilizhanka (approximately 18km northeast of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi on the Oskil River’s eastern bank) and have secured positions northwest of the settlement.[12] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to shell Kucherivka and Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi) and Dvorichna (west of Tavilizhanka).[13] Social media footage also showed the aftermath of a Russian strike on Kupyansk.[14]

Ukrainian forces continued to advance northwest of Lyman on September 26 and September 27. Ukrainian local officials announced that Ukrainian forces liberated Pisky-Radkivski (approximately 35km northwest of Lyman) on September 26, but noted that Ukrainian forces are still clearing the settlement.[15] Local officials stated they could freely travel between Lozove and Rubtsi, which further indicates that Ukrainian forces have secured some positions northwest of Lyman. Ukrainian journalist Andrii Tsaplienko reported that Ukrainian forces have liberated Ridkodub (20km north of Lyman), and geolocated footage depicts Ukrainian forces moving through the settlement.[16] Russian milbloggers also claimed that Ukrainian forces recaptured Katerynivka and secured their positions in Nove, both east of Ridkodub.[17] Geolocated footage also showed Ukrainian forces entering Korovii Yar, about 20km due northwest of Lyman.[18]

Russian sources are reporting that Ukrainian artillery fire is successfully interdicting Russian forces’ last logistic route to Lyman, running through Svatove-Makiivka-Terny north of the settlement.[19] Russian milbloggers also claimed to witness Ukrainian reconnaissance and sabotage groups in Torske and Yampil, 14km northeast and 13km southeast of Lyman, respectively.[20]

Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Ukrainian military officials maintained their operational silence on September 27 and stated that Ukrainian forces are continuing their interdiction campaign in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian forces are continuing to regroup units in the area and have closed entry and exit to Kherson Oblast, possibly to prevent individual Russian deserters and Ukrainian men of fighting age from fleeing to Ukrainian-controlled territory.[21]

Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted that Ukrainian forces struck Russian barges operating over the Dnipro River and continued to target Russian efforts to repair the Kakhovka Bridge.[22] Geolocated footage published on September 26 also showed that Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian ferry crossing near Kherson City.[23] Some Ukrainian social media users also reported that Russian forces restarted their efforts to establish a barge crossing near the Antonivsky Bridge, but did not provide visual evidence.[24] Ukrainian forces also continued to strike Russian ammunition depots and key positions in central and northern Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command noted destroying a Russian air defense system in Beryslav Raion. Ukrainian forces also reportedly struck four ammunition depots and four Russian weapon and equipment concentrations in Beryslav and Kherson raions.[25] Ukrainian forces also struck Russian military equipment concentration areas in Kakhovka Raion.[26] Ukrainian military officials stated that Ukrainian forces have increased their pace of shooting down Russian aircraft in Kherson Oblast, shooting down six planes and helicopters in the past week.[27]

Ukrainian and Russian sources provided limited information regarding kinetic activity on the Kherson Oblast border. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces continue to shell and strike Ukrainian positions southeast of the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, northwest of Kherson City, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border near Potomkyne and Osokorkivka.[28] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) also claimed that Russian forces struck Ukrainian command posts near the bridgehead and shot down Ukrainian aircraft in Osokorkivka.[29] Geolocated footage also showed Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions and military equipment in between Maksymivka and Kyselivka (east of Mykolaiv City), Davydiv Brid on the T2207 highway, and the southern part of Pravdyne (about 30km northwest of Kherson City).[30]

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on September 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks northeast of Bakhmut near Soledar and Bakhmutske, and south of Bakhmut near Kurdyumivka, Zaitseve, and Mayorsk.[31] The New York Times cited reports by Ukrainian military personnel that Wagner Group forces in the Bakhmut area are deploying men from penal colonies as cannon fodder who often surrender to Ukrainian forces on contact, confirming previous reports of Wagner Group employing poorly trained prisoners.[32] The article states that more experienced Wagner fighters only advance a certain amount before sending the former prisoners forward with little support amid Ukrainian artillery fire.[33] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted failed ground attacks northeast of Avdiivka near Kamianka and west of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske on September 27.[34] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are trying to advance in the directions of Pervomaiske, Pobeda, Pavlivka, and Novomykhailivka, all west and southwest of Donetsk City in western Donetsk Oblast.[35] A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a failed assault against Russian positions in Marinka.[36]

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces inflicted severe damage on a Ukrainian airfield in Kryvyi Rih and continued routine air and missile strikes against Ukrainian positions in southern Ukraine on September 27. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that a Russian cruise missile inflicted heavy damage on airport infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih on September 26, rendering the airfield inoperable.[37] Russian forces continued to conduct routine shelling and air and missile strikes elsewhere in Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts on September 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted air and missile strikes on Mykolaiv City, Ochakiv, and Zaporizhia City.[38] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces conducted six S-300 and two Smerch multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) missile attacks against Mykolaiv City on September 27, striking the industrial zone and civilian infrastructure.[39] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces conducted a high-precision air strike against Ukraine’s 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade in Mykolaiv City, killing up to 50 personnel and destroying five vehicles.[40] The Russian Ministry of Defense also claimed that Russian forces conducted an air strike in the vicinity of Zaporizhia City that killed 100 personnel of the Ukrainian 9th Special Forces Regiment and 50 “foreign mercenaries.”[41] ISW cannot independently verify the Russian Ministry of Defense’s claims.

Russian forces continued to use Iranian-made drones to attack Ukrainian forces and cities in Southern Ukraine on September 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces carried out more than 50 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) sorties on September 27 throughout southern Ukraine and that many of those sorties used Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.[42] Ukrainian sources reported on September 27 that Ukrainian forces shot down three drones conducting operations over Ochakiv and eleven Russian drones conducting operations in Odesa Oblast.[43] A Russian milblogger claimed on September 27 that Russian forces conducted drone attacks on September 26 targeting Ukrainian howitzers in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts.[44] The Russian milblogger also claimed that Russian forces used drones to strike a Ukrainian armed forces barracks, a Ukrainian air defense command post, a guard company headquarters, and a fuel storage depot in unspecified locations in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts on September 26.[45]

Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign against Russian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast on September 27. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed ten pieces of military equipment and killed more than 20 Russian personnel in Melitopol.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 27 that Ukrainian forces also destroyed a Russian S-300 system and five other pieces of military equipment and wounded more than 50 Russian personnel in Tokmak and Chernihivka.[47]

Surse Ruse și separatiste

Rybar

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Atacul asupra Donbass: situație în estul Ucrainei până la sfârșitul zilei de 27 septembrie 2022

🔻Teritorii de frontieră ale Federației Ruse: ▪️Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei au bombardat clădiri rezidențiale în satul Ziborovka, Regiunea Belgorod, nu au existat victime în rândul civililor.

🔻Direcția Kharkiv: Situația în acest sector al frontului rămâne tensionată. Unitățile din a 14-a ombr a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei își continuă ofensiva în direcția satului Tavolzhanka. ▪️Potrivit unor rapoarte, au loc bătălii aprige pentru stația Kupyansk-Uzlovaya de pe malul estic al râului Oskol. ▪️Noaptea, Forțele Armate Ruse au atacat infrastructuri critice din Harkov, în urma cărora au apărut probleme cu alimentarea cu energie în oraș.

🔻Directia Liman: ▪️Unitățile ucrainene au făcut o încercare nereușită de a asalt Liman din Ozerny și Shchukovo. În același timp, Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei au reușit să câștige un punct de sprijin în satele Novoe și Katerynivka. ▪️Pe flancul nordic, formațiunile ucrainene atacă pozițiile forțelor aliate din zona satului Zelyonaya Dolina, urmărind să ajungă mai departe în spatele unităților Forțelor Armate Ruse care apără Liman. ▪️La est de Liman, inamicul a putut pătrunde până la Yampol și Torskoy în grupuri mobile în mașini. ▪️La vest, o altă încercare a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei de a stabili controlul asupra satului Drobyshevo a eșuat. ▪️Forțele aliate au respins toate atacurile inamice asupra Novoselovka și Shandrigolovo. ▪️Pe flancul sudic, comandamentul ucrainean transferă forțe suplimentare pe malul nordic al Seversky Donețului, compensând pierderile de echipamente și forță de muncă suferite în urma bătăliilor și pregătește unitățile ucrainene pentru o ofensivă activă în această direcție. ▪️Ofensiva Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei de pe flancurile sudice și vestice amenință să blocheze singura rută de aprovizionare rămasă pentru forțele aliate de-a lungul drumului Svatovo-Makeevka-Terny-Liman. ▪️Comandamentul rus continuă să încerce să constrângă înaintarea inamicului pentru a întări apărarea și a stabiliza frontul. ▪️Delurile de artilerie continuă de-a lungul întregii linii de contact.

🔻 Direcția Bakhmut (Artemovsk): ▪️La sud de Bakhmut (Artemovsk), luptele crâncene dintre unitățile de asalt Wagner PMC și militarii ucraineni continuă în satul Otradovka. ▪️ În același timp, „Wagneriții” înaintează pe poziții inamice din Zaitsevo.

🔻Regiunea Luhansk: ▪️Formațiunile ucrainene care folosesc HIMARS MLRS au tras asupra clădirilor rezidențiale și administrative din Alchevsk și Bryanka.

Boris Rhojin

1. Inamicul continuă să încerce să ocolească Krasny Lyman din nord, eșuând în încercarea de a-l lua cu un atac frontal. Făcând o manevră ocolitoare, inamicul a capturat Redkodub și astăzi a luat din nou Ekaterinovka, din care fusese deja eliminat mai devreme.
   Inamicul crește presiunea în zona Yampol.
   Scopul principal al Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei aici este de a crea o amenințare directă la adresa comunicațiilor noastre de pe site, de a forța Forțele Armate ale Federației Ruse să părăsească Yampol, Krasny Liman și Drobyshevo pentru a evita încercuirea.
2. În zona Kupyansk – lupte intense. Inamicul a ocupat o altă porțiune din zona industrială Kupyansk și stația Kupyansk-Uzlovaya.
   Încercările continuă să străpungă frontul la nord de Kupiansk, dar acolo, deocamdată, ofensiva Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei este blocată în apărarea Forțelor Armate RF. Inamicul a avansat în Peski-Radkovsky la sud de Borovaya. În general, sectorul Harkov al frontului rămâne cel mai problematic pentru Forțele Armate RF – stabilizarea completă după descoperirea Balakleysky a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei nu a venit încă aici, iar lupta împotriva consecințelor descoperirii și retragerii forțate continuă.
3. Pe direcțiile Nikolaev și Krivoy Rog, frontul este în general stabil. Forțele armate ale Federației Ruse continuă să curețe metodic capul de pod Andreevsky, de unde inamicul nu a fost niciodată capabil să dezvolte o ofensivă împotriva lui Berislav, care s-a dovedit a fi pierderi grele pentru el în oameni și echipamente. Frontul este stabil și în zona lui Aleksandrovka, Pravdino și Posad-Pokrovsky. La Olgino și Arkhangelskoye în direcția Nikopol – fără modificări semnificative.
4. În direcția Artemovsk, trupele noastre continuă asaltul asupra Zaitsevo, Otradovka și Podgorny. Luptă la periferia de est a Artemovskului. Spre sud, luptele continuă în direcția Kurdyumovka.
5. Luptele de stradă continuă în Soledar, ritmul de avans aici este scăzut. Luptele au loc în Bakhmutskoye, lângă Belogorovka și Berestovoye.
   În direcția Seversk, luptele au loc în apropiere de Disputable și Ivano-Daryevka. Forțele armate ale Federației Ruse încearcă să recupereze Disputa. Inamicul nu a abandonat planurile de regrupare și de a încerca să avanseze în direcția Kremennaya și Novodruzhesk.
6. Direcția Marinka, Avdeevka, Ugledar, Dzerzhinsk, Zaporizhia – fără modificări semnificative.