Război în Ucraina. Update ziua 247 – 7.11.2022

ISW pare relativ obiectiv în relatarea evenimentelor, dar face o discretă propagandă pro-Kiev. Military Land este un site ucrainean care oferă informații și hărți despre armata ucraineană și războiul cu Rusia. Sursele rusești sunt, evident, partizane.

ISW

  • Russian troops continued efforts to fix Ukrainian troops against the international border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations in the Svatove direction.
  • Russian sources claimed that Russian troops conducted limited counterattacks to regain lost positions west of Kreminna.
  • Russian sources widely claimed that proxy and Wagner Group troops entered the outskirts of Bilohorivka.
  • Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops are massing in the Kherson Oblast direction.
  • Russian troops continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted limited interdiction efforts against Russian concentration areas in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)

Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)

Russian forces likely continued efforts to fix Ukrainian troops on the international border in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast by conducting minor cross-border attacks on November 6. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 6 that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack on Zybyne, a settlement in northern Kharkiv Oblast about 3km south of the Russian border.[30] Geolocated footage posted to social media on November 6 additionally depicts Russian troops digging trenches near the international border in Belgorod Oblast.[31] As ISW has previously reported, such actions are likely intended to fix Ukrainian troops against the northern international border but do not presage a major Russian offensive (that Russian forces do not have the capacity to conduct), preventing some Ukrainian troops needed to screen the border from pursuing offensive operations elsewhere in Ukraine.[32]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations in the Svatove direction on November 6 and 7. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on November 7 that Ukrainian forces attacked Nizhnya Duvanka, about 15km north of Svatove along the R66 Svatove-Kreminna highway.[33] Russian sources, including the Russian MoD, additionally reported that Ukrainian troops attempted to advance towards Novoselivske, 14km northwest of Svatove, on November 6 and 7.[34] A Russian milblogger noted on November 7 that fighting in the area northwest of Svatove has taken on a “positional nature” characterized by episodic and unsuccessful attempts by both Ukrainian and Russian troops to break through the frontline.[35] Another Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army are holding defensive positions around Svatove.[36] A Russian source posted footage of Russian forces firing a TOS-1 thermobaric multiple rocket launch system at Ukrainian positions around Svatove.[37] The use of such a military-district-level asset in this area may suggest either that Russian forces are increasingly prioritizing the defense of the Svatove-Kreminna line, or that Russian troops have largely exhausted munitions that would be more appropriate for the type of close-quarters artillery exchanges that are common in this area.

Russia forces conducted limited counterattacks to regain lost positions west of Kreminna on November 6 and 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian assaults in the direction of Yampolivka (17km west of Kreminna) on November 6 and in the direction of Yampil (18km southwest of Kreminna) on November 7.[38] Russian sources also reported that Russian troops launched limited counterattacks west of Kreminna towards Yampolivka and Makiivka on November 7.[39] The Russian MoD and Russian milbloggers claimed on both November 6 and 7 that Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive attacks northwest of Kreminna and unsuccessfully attempted to advance on Ploshchanka and Chervonopopivka, 10km and 5km northwest of Kreminna, respectively.[40]

Russian sources widely claimed that proxy and Wagner Group troops entered Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna) on November 7. Several Russian milbloggers claimed the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) 6th Cossack Regiment and Wagner Group forces entered Bilohorivka after months of heavy fighting along the Donetsk-Luhansk Oblast border and that fighting is continuing in residential areas of the settlement.[41] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attacked Bilohorivka on November 6 but did not confirm Russian claims that Russian forces have entered the settlement.[42] The Ukrainian General Staff also noted that a Ukrainian strike damaged a unit of the Chechen Akhmat battalion in Lysychansk, about 10km east of Bilohorivka, on November 7.[43] Russian forces likely seek to regain lost positions along the Donetsk-Luhansk Oblast border to push Ukrainian troops further away from the critical Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.

uthern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)

Russian forces continued defensive preparations in Kherson Oblast on November 6 and 7. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian troops are attempting to hold occupied lines in the Kherson direction.[44] Russian and Ukrainian sources continued to claim that Russian troops are facilitating the evacuation of civilians from the west bank of the Dnipro River, indicating continued concern over Ukrainian advances.[45] Geolocated satellite imagery from October 29, November 3, and November 4 shows Russian defensive lines in Kakhovka (70km east of Kherson City), Hola Prystan (8km southwest of Kherson City), and Ivanivka (60km southwest of Kherson City) — all of which lie on the east bank of the Dnipro River.[46]

Russian sources widely claimed on November 6 and 7 that Ukrainian forces are amassing in the Kherson direction. Kherson Occupation deputy Kirill Stremousov and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are pulling troops to the Kherson Oblast border in preparation for the next stage of their counteroffensive.[47] The Russian MoD and other Russian sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian troops attacked Russian positions along the current frontline in northern Kherson Oblast and in western Kherson Oblast near the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border on November 6 and 7.[48] Russian sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups blew up three power lines along the Beryslav-Kakhovka road and cut electricity supply to the Beryslav area.[49]

Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign against Russian concentration areas throughout Kherson Oblast on November 6 and 7. Geolocated footage posted on November 6 shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian strike on the “Golden Pheasant” hotel in Radensk (about 23km southeast of Kherson City), where Russian troops reportedly resided.[50] Ukrainian military sources confirmed that Ukrainian strikes successfully targeted a large Russian concentration area in Radensk, as well as in the Beryslav Raion and Hola Prystan.[51] Residents of Nova Kakhovka (60km east of Kherson City) and Oleshky (8km south of Kherson City) posted imagery of smoke following reported Ukrainian strikes on November 7.[52]

Russian Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued offensive operation around Bakhmut on November 6 and 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within a 26km radius northeast of Bakhmut near Bakhmutske, Berestove, and Yakovlivka and within a 20km radius south of Bakhmut near Andriivka, Mayorsk, Ozarianivka, and Opytne on November 6 and 7.[53] Geolocated footage posted on November 6 shows Russian forces operating south of Bakhmut in Ivanhrad.[54] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces took full control of Ivanhrad on November 6 and are continuing to conduct offensive operations south of Bakhmut to take Opytne as of November 7.[55] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Deputy Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselev claimed that Wagner Group units broke through Ukrainian forces’ first lines of defense in Bakhmut on November 6.[56] A Russian milblogger claimed on November 6 that Wagner PMC elements are attacking in the direction of Bakhmut from three directions: near Klishchiivka south of Bakhmut, near Ivanhrad southeast of Bakhmut, and on the eastern city limits of Bakhmut.[57] Another Russian milblogger claimed on November 7 that the actions of Wagner Group units in the Bakhmut area have caused Ukrainian forces to suffer substantial losses, although ISW cannot independently verify this claim.[58]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area on November 6 and 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults within a 27km radius south of Avdiivka near Makiivka, Marinka, and Krasnohorivka on November 6 and 7.[59] Donetsk People’s Republic People’s (DNR) Militia claimed on November 6 that the DNR Sparta Battalion and other Russian military units captured former Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of the Donetsk City Airport.[60] The commander of the Sparta Battalion, Artyom Joga, claimed on November 7 that his units completed a complete clean-up of the Donetsk City airport and pushed Ukrainian forces past the E-50 highway in the area.[61] A Russian milblogger claimed on November 6 that Russian forces also conducted an assault northeast of Avdiivka on Kamianka to control a section of the N-20 highway.[62] DNR First Deputy Information Minister Danil Bezsonov claimed on November 7 that Russian forces are making steady progress southwest of Avdiivka near Opytne (4km southwest of Avdiivka) and Vodyane.[63] A BARS-13 (Russian combat reserves) source claimed on November 7 that Russian forces are also continuing offensive operations southwest of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske.[64]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast on November 6 and 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Pavlivka and Novomyhailivka, Donetsk Oblast on November 6 and 7.[65] Russian sources widely described Russian offensive operations near Pavlivka as slow moving or as not going well, with one Russian milblogger stating that everything in Pavlivka “is objectively bad.”[66] One Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have not made significant progress near Pavlivka nor Novomykhailivka, and that fighting in these areas are increasingly becoming positional battles.[67] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces are experiencing a dilemma in the Pavlivka area in which they must withdraw exhausted units but do not have available fresh units to replace them.[68] Another Russian milblogger claimed on November 6 that Russian forces launched assaults on Novomykhailivka as well as Kostyantinivka to increase pressure on the Ukrainian garrison in Marinka.[69] Bezsonov claimed on November 7 that weather and mud in the Vuhledar direction is making it difficult for Russian forces to advance through fields and establish logistics.[70] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued routine indirect fire along the line of contact in Donetsk Oblast and eastern Zaporizhia Oblast on November 6 and 7.[71]

Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Shcherbaky, Zaporizhia Oblast (45km southeast of Zaporizhzhia City) on November 7.[72] Russian forces continued routine air, missile, and artillery strikes west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv oblasts on November 6 and 7.[73] Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces struck Nikopol and other settlements along the contact line in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Zaporizhia Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, and on the Black Sea coast between November 5 and 7.[74] Russian sources reported that Russian forces destroyed two Ukrainian ammunition depots in the Orikhiv area west of Hulyaipole on November 7.[75] Ukrainian military sources reported on November 6 that the situation in Zaporizhia Oblast and surrounding areas has not significantly changed because Russian forces continue to focus on maintaining current occupation borders in the region.[76] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command notably reported that Russian forces used at least three loitering munitions to attack areas in Mykolaiv Oblast on November 6 and noted that Ukrainian air defenses shot down one drone in Mykolaiv Oblast.[77] The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration also reported that Russian forces launched S-300 anti-aircraft missiles at Hulyaipole between November 5 and 6.[78]

Ukrainian forces conducted limited interdiction efforts against Russian concentration areas in Zaporizhia Oblast on November 6.[79] Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration confirmed on November 6 that Ukrainian forces struck Russian concentration areas south of Hulyaipole near Basan, Polohy, and Marfopil and destroyed up to 30 units of Russian military equipment and wounded around 120 Russian servicemen.[80] Zaporizhia Oblast occupation deputy Vladimir Rogov reported that Russian forces are constructing fortified positions north of Russian-occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and are expecting an attack before November 8.[81]

Russian authorities consolidated control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) amid continued Ukrainian raids in the area on November 6.[82] The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on November 6 that Russian occupation authorities at the ZNPP tried to blackmail Ukrainian ZNPP employees into signing Russian contracts, which require accepting Russian Federation citizenship, by the end of November.[83] The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that these Russian contracts will require Ukrainian ZNPP employees to disperse to nuclear power plants throughout the territory of the Russian Federation.[84] This suggests that Russian authorities seek to transfer ZNPP over to Russia completely by replacing Ukrainian employees with Russian employees, as ISW has previously assessed.[85] The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also reported on November 5 that power to ZNPP is fully restored after shelling damaged power to ZNPP on November 3.[86] Meanwhile, footage from November 5 showed Ukrainian Special Forces conducting operations north of Enerhodar, crossing the Dnipro River.[87] Ukrainian troops have likely continued limited raids across the Kakhovka Reservoir towards Enerhodar.

Surse ruse

Rybar

🔻Regiunea Belgorod
▪️Formațiunile ucrainene au bombardat orașul de graniță Grayvoron. Clădiri de locuințe și un transformator au fost avariate, dar nimeni nu a fost rănit.
🔻Direcția Starobilsk 
➖Grupul de asalt al Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei a lansat un atac asupra lui Nevelskoye de la Berestovoye. Trupele ruse au lansat lovituri preventive împotriva inamicului, forțându-l să se retragă în pozițiile inițiale cu pierderi.

▪️În sectorul Limansky, grupurile de asalt ale Ombrei 66 a Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei au avansat asupra pozițiilor Forțelor Armate RF în direcția Makeevka și Krasnopopovka. Trupele ruse au respins atacul, inamicul s-a retras.

➖Unitățile ucrainene au avansat în secret spre autostrada Svatovo-Kremennaya de pe malul râului Zherebets. Forțele Armate ale Federației Ruse au organizat o ambuscadă pentru forțele Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei și focul concentrat de artilerie le-a forțat să se retragă în grabă în pozițiile inițialetps://t.me/rybar/40945)):
▪️În sectorul Kupyansky, părțile duc bătălii de poziție în vecinătatea satului Yagodnoye de lângă Ivanovka.
▪️Pe sectorul Svatovski, unități ale Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei încearcă să treacă prin apărarea Forțelor Armate Ruse din apropierea satului Kuzemovka.
➖Forțele Armate ale Ucrainei au încercat să atace centura forestieră în direcția Ploschanka, dar au eșuat și s-au retras.

🔻Directia Soledar:

▪️Luptele continuă la periferia orașului Bakhmut, cu experiență și disputat. Detașamentele „PMC Wagner” au străbătut primele linii ale inamicului și au intrat în Belogorovka. Capturarea așezării vă va permite să mergeți la Seversk din direcția nord-est.

🔻Direcția Donețk:

▪️Nu există schimbări semnificative în situația din sectorul Ugledar: luptele poziționale continuă în Pavlovka, precum și lângă Maryinskaya și Novomikhailovka.
▪️Soldații batalionului Sparta au finalizat curățarea teritoriului aeroportului Donețk. Luptele continuă pentru Vodyanoye, Pervomayskoye și zonele fortificate din Opytny.

▪️Formațiuni ucrainene au bombardat zonele rezidențiale și infrastructura civilă din Donețk: o fată de 14 ani a fost ucisă în districtul Petrovsky. Au fost atacate Kashtanovy, Panteleimonovka, Mikhailovka și alte așezări ale aglomerației.

🔻Directia Zaporozhye:

▪️Delurile de artilerie continuă pe linia de contact în regiunea Zaporojie: trupele ruse au atacat pozițiile inamice din Gulyaipole, Olhovsky, Shcherbaki și Dorozhnyanka.
🔻Frontul de Sud: direcția Nikolaev-Berislav

▪️Comandamentul Forțelor Armate ale Ucrainei continuă să se pregătească pentru ofensiva pe toată linia frontului. Totodată, la Herson a fost finalizată evacuarea organizată a populației civile de pe malul drept al Niprului.

▪️Formațiunile ucrainene din HIMARS MLRS au atacat Berislav și Kherson, rachetele au interceptat sisteme de apărare aeriană.

Boris Rhojin (Voenkor Kotenok)

  1. Direcția Donețk.
    „Sparta” anunță finalizarea eliberării teritoriului aeroportului Donețk și deplasarea forțelor inamice din zonele fortificate rămase acolo.
    Bătăliile pentru Vodyanoye și Pervomayskoye, precum și zonele fortificate din Opytny continuă. Inamicul a continuat să bombardeze Donețk pe tot parcursul zilei.
  2. Ugledar
    Bătăliile de poziție au continuat în zona Novomikhailovka și Pavlovka fără progrese semnificative. Inamicul a reușit să stabilizeze frontul, drept urmare ritmul ofensivei noastre a scăzut.
    Nu a fost posibil să o luăm pe Pavlovka dintr-o lovitură și să mergem direct pe pista spre Ugledar, cel puțin nu încă.
    În Maryinka – fără modificări semnificative.
  3. Soledar.
    În oraș în sine, nu sunt schimbări, sunt lupte de stradă.
    Ei raportează progrese în luptele pentru Belgorovka, unde trupele noastre au intrat din nou și luptă pentru a curăța așezarea.
    În zona litigiului – nicio schimbare.
  4. Matchmaking.
    Inamicul a făcut mai multe încercări de atac, dar nu a putut avansa, suferind pierderi semnificative.
    Autostrada Kremennaya-Svatovo este sub focul artileriei inamice, dar inamicul nu a reușit să o taie complet și nici măcar să o ajungă.
    Forțele Armate ale Federației Ruse continuă să rezolve sarcinile de stabilizare a acestui sector al frontului.
  5. Kherson.
    Fără modificări semnificative. Inamicul continuă să cerceteze prima linie a trupelor noastre, dar nu a trecut încă la o ofensivă la scară largă, așteptându-se la un fel de truc asociat cu diferite zvonuri despre abandonarea Hersonului în legătură cu explozia hidrocentralei Kakhovskaya.
    Astăzi se încheie oficial și evacuarea populației civile pe malul stâng al Niprului. În oraș însuși, întreruperile de curent continuă din cauza aruncării în aer a liniilor electrice de către DRG-ul inamicului.

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